How Big Will the Blue Wave Be?

Dan Pfeiffer: “The bigger the wave, the more Democrats elected, the greater the chance of taking the Senate, and the bigger the rebuke of Trump, his broken promises, his idiotic war, and his rampant corruption.”

“When people talk about a wave (red or blue), they are really referring to the political environment — how much more Democratic or Republican a year will be than a normal one. This is measured by the popular vote margin in House races. For example, in 2018, when Democrats picked up 41 seats, they won the House popular vote by 8.6%. But of course, we only know the margin after the election, so it doesn’t do us a lot of good in forecasting what may happen. Prior to the election, the political environment is measured by the generic ballot. As of today, according to Nate Silver, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6.7%.”

“This is about the same as it was at this point in 2018. It could certainly go up as we get closer to the election, as more voters who disapprove of Trump decide to vote for Democrats this fall.”