Prediction Markets Could Sow Chaos in the Midterms

“With less than 100 days left until the midterms, and with President Donald Trump and members of his administration working overtime to undermine trust in American democracy, Wired spoke to election officials across the country struggling to get their heads around how prediction markets could further complicate Election Day.”

“Last week’s Wisconsin gubernatorial primary showcased how large the discrepancy can be between prediction market odds and how a race actually shakes out, as both Kalshi and Polymarket had progressive candidate Francesca Hong as the likely winner until the results started coming in.”

“Election officials see risk in this type of scenario, where people place too much confidence in the probabilities shown by the markets and make wagers expecting guaranteed money. There’s also concern over whether prediction markets could fuel aggression against poll workers and other people involved in elections, something that some officials say they’ve already witnessed.”