Seth Masket: “If you’ve been following the midterm election polling over the past week or so, the big story has been the sudden expansion in Democrats’ leads, both in many individual races and in national polling. Just in the past few weeks, Democratic odds of winning the Senate have gone from 50-50 to 64% at the FiftyPlusOne model and 65% in Nate Silver’s model. The median forecast for House elections at FiftyPlusOne has Democrats picking up 39 seats — not too far from my 46-seat forecast I made back in the spring, which I thought was insane when I wrote it.”
“The reasons for an overall Democratic lean this year are well documented. But in terms of the recent boost for Democrats, one can make a case that this is the product of the Republican midterm convention that Donald Trump organized September 9th-10th.”
