Nate Silver: “So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s… overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been consistent enough that it probably has to count as the ‘base case.'”
“But there’s also some risk here for Democrats. Precisely those groups with whom they’re making the largest gains are those where polls have most overestimated Democrats in recent years.”
“There are also potentially huge, lopsided rewards. If the map is reverting more to something pre-Trump-like, that was a map where Barack Obama won Iowa and Ohio twice. Meanwhile, in the House, Republican gerrymanders in states like Florida and Texas were implicitly premised on the GOP having made permanent gains among Hispanics.”
