Are the Polls Too Good to Be True?

Dan Pfeiffer: “Midterm polls have tended to be more accurate than polls in presidential years. The polls were historically accurate in 2018 and 2022. I know everyone thinks the polls were wrong in 2022 because the Red Wave never materialized, but the polls were right. The final generic ballot average was Republican +2.5, and the result was Republican +2.7.”

“Midterm polls are more accurate because the electorate includes fewer of the less politically engaged voters who tend not to answer polls. In recent years, those voters have leaned heavily toward Trump. They were undersampled in 2016 and 2020, but because they turn out at lower rates in midterms, the polls tend to be more accurate.”