18 More House Race Ratings Move Towards Democrats

Cook Political Report: “In the final weeks of the election, Republicans have hoped that a massive ad campaign effort could dent Democratic candidates’ images and shore up Republicans struggling to free themselves of the anchor of President Donald Trump.”

“With less than four weeks to go, that heavy spending has yet to move the needle.”

“That is a key factor prompting us to move ratings for 18 more House races, all in Democrats’ favor. Four GOP incumbents who previously sat in the Toss Up column are shifting into Lean Democrat — three of these members won their races by less than two points in 2024 and should be the easiest seats for Democrats to pick up in a favorable environment. And four more races previously rated Lean Republican are shifting into the Toss Up column.”

“With these new moves, we’re also adjusting our range: the most likely outcome is now that Democrats will pick up nine to 19 seats. That would give them 224 seats on the lower end and 234 on the upper end. At this point, Democrats only need two.”

Bloomberg: Democrats push to turn House edge into wave.