Why Midterm Polls May Not Be Inflating Democrats

Nate Cohn: “Are the midterm polls overestimating the Democrats?”

“It’s hard not to wonder. We’ve seen the polls inflate Democrats’ chances many times, but we’ve never seen Democratic candidates doing this well in red states during the Trump era. Recent polls have shown them leading in enough states to take the Senate.”

“Let’s state it plainly: It is absolutely possible that the polls could be overestimating Democrats. Polls are inherently imprecise, subject to many sources of error, and they could be wrong in much the same way they’ve been before.”

“Even so, there is no reason to assume that the polls will systematically overstate the Democrats’ standing as they did in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In fact, the polls haven’t really done so in midterm or off-year elections during the Trump era, including the 2018 or 2022 midterms. Just last November, the polls actually underestimated Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia — and by a lot.”