G. Elliot Morris: “Last month, I showed that error in how Americans report who they voted for in the 2024 election could be causing polls to underestimate support for the Democrats in the U.S. House generic ballot.”
“What’s going on here is that many pollsters now weight their samples so that the share of respondents who say they voted for Trump in 2024 matches the share of all voters who actually did.”
“However, if some Trump voters who have soured on him stop saying they voted for him, the people still claiming a Trump vote are a more loyal group than Trump’s real 2024 coalition. Weighting them back up to Trump’s actual share of the 2024 vote would artificially inflate the size of the super-MAGA group of voters in the electorate.”
?Political Trivia
Eight moments in political history. Put them on a timeline.
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Five senators. Three bills. Can you guess how they all voted?
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Nine Justices. One case. How did they rule?
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Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
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Four questions a day.
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A new game every day.