The Polls Have Been Unusually Similar

Washington Post: “In 13 of the 27 races we looked at, including the Senate races in Maine and Texas, there’s less variation among polls than we would normally expect.”

“One possible reason is that pollsters are correcting their samples in similar ways. As it has gotten harder to reach voters who rarely participate in elections, many pollsters now ask people who they voted for in 2024 — then adjust the poll so its mix of Trump and Harris voters looks like the 2024 electorate. That can make polls look alike even if they reached different groups of people.”