If a Blue Wave Is Coming, Here’s Where It Will Start

Ron Brownstein: “The first big indications of the night’s direction will come primarily from races in the East, because polls close earliest in the region.”

“In Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. (all closing times are Eastern), a Democratic win in the VA-2 House race will be a sign the party is on track for a solid performance. In that race, former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is pursuing a rematch against Republican Jen Kiggans, who beat her in 2022 in a district Trump carried by less than a point in 2024. Not winning this race would be an early sign that Democrats are underperforming.”

“If Democrats also win the VA-1 congressional seat, that will augur a larger wave. In that seat, Republican Rob Wittman is straining to hold off Democrat Shannon Taylor in a seat Trump carried by five points. If former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello ousts Republican Rep. John McGuire, who is finishing his first term in VA-5 — a seat Trump carried by 12 points — it will signal the party is on track to win even more than the 235 seats they captured in 2018.”