The Final Forecasts

G. Elliot Morris: “I give the Democrats a 99-in-100 chance of taking 218 seats or more. It would be historically surprising — as in, there has never been a House polling miss this large — for Republicans to hold their majority in the chamber…”

”If the polls are as wrong as they were in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, Democrats will walk away tonight with 54 seats in the U.S. Senate. If the polls miss as they did in the recent presidential years, they’ll likely fall short of a majority with just 50.”

Nate Silver: “When we launched the model back in August, Democrats were strong favorites to take the House but the Senate was close to a tossup. Today, a Democratic House majority looks all but certain, and the polls indicate that they should also win the upper chamber. In fact, Democrats’ Senate win probability as of our final update is just a few percentage points lower than their House win probability was at launch.”