The Polls Found a New Way to Be Wrong

Marc Novicoff: “Heading into the midterms, everyone who follows American politics had the same question: Were the polls correct, or would they underestimate Republicans once again? The answer turned out to be neither. This time around, the polls undercounted a different kind of voter: Democrats.”

“According to the Silver Bulletin polling averages, Democrats were on track to win the U.S. House popular vote by nine points and narrowly flip a few Senate seats in states that Donald Trump had won by double digits. Democratic voters across the country saw these numbers and braced for disappointment. They remembered the polling misses of 2016 (which underestimated Trump by about three points on average) and 2024 (which did too) and believed that they could be watching another blue mirage.”

“In fact, even this year’s seemingly incredible poll numbers turned out to significantly understate Democrats’ strength. Democrats are now expected to win the House popular vote by 13 points, the largest such victory in 50 years. And that four-point national polling error was small compared with the miss in certain states.”