The Polls Missed the Blue Tsunami

Lakshya Jain: “In the wake of the blue tsunami that engulfed America last week, you’ve probably seen some pollsters claiming vindication for the industry. After all, the polls said a blue wave would happen, and it did. The results were proof that, despite the numerous challenges faced by the industry, polling is fine, right?”

“Wrong.”

“I’m not an armchair critic. I am a pollster. Take it from me: The polls did not have a great night. In fact, per data from Matt Grossmann, the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, pollsters may have had one of their worst cycles of this century, with a polling miss exceeding the infamous misfires in 2016 and rivaling those of 2020.”