A new ABC News-Washington Post poll finds Democratic House candidates now lead their Republican opponents nationally by 52% to 38% among registered voters — a lead that holds up across a range of likely voter models.

The Democrats’ advantage reflects President Trump’s broad unpopularity: 36% of Americans approve of his job performance, the lowest approval rating for a president heading into his first midterms in polling dating to 1954.

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds Democrats leading 50% to 39%.

Meanwhile, a new Emerson College poll finds Democrats leading 52% to 39% and a new IBD/TIPP poll finds Democrats ahead 50% to 39%.

Dan Balz: “The first key is to protect all or virtually all those vulnerable incumbents. Bruce Mehlman, who worked in the Bush White House, suggests that’s not out of the question. He did a study looking at 333 Senate races in 10 midterm elections dating back to 1978. He concluded that what matters most ‘is not being from the party that holds the White House, regardless of a state’s partisan lean.'”

“If Democrats manage to protect their incumbents, they only have to win two more seats. Prospects are considered best — but not certain — in Nevada and Arizona, followed by Tennessee. A long shot is Texas, where Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke has captured the imaginations of Democrats like no other candidate this year. He is giving Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a strong challenge but is still the underdog.”