Here’s what’s trending on Wonk Wire:
Are Non-Voters Driving Trump’s Popularity?
A new Monkey Cage poll in Iowa finds that non-voters may be driving Donald Trump’s popularity.
“To build a sample, we began with the list of registered voters in Iowa and stratified our sample by factors like age and sex. Other pollsters have done something similar. However, what we did — but other have not — is stratify the sample based on another factor: Whether or not people had voted in at least one primary election since 2006.”
The results: Ben Carson led with 27%, followed by Marco Rubio at 17% and Donald Trump at 15%.
Supreme Court Rejects Challenge to Assault Weapon Ban
“The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday turned away a challenge by gun rights activists to an ordinance enacted by a Chicago suburb that bans assault weapons and large-capacity magazines,” Reuters reports.
“The refusal by the nine justices to hear the case, coming at a time of fierce debate over the nation’s gun laws following a series of mass shootings, means that the 2013 ordinance passed by the city of Highland Park, Illinois remains in effect.”
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Quote of the Day
“If you call all the people you’re running against losers, clowns, and dopes, that’s not the language of someone who unifies the party.”
— Karl Rove, quoted by New York Magazine, on why Donald Trump can’t win the general election.
Warren Hits the Road to Retake Senate
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) “has been on the campaign trail for months, using her brand name among liberals and her fund-raising clout to support Democratic Senate candidates across the country, in a bid for her party to reclaim control of the chamber,” the Boston Globe reports.
Said Warren: “I’m going to work my heart out to make sure we take back the Senate. I crisscrossed the country multiple times in 2014. I expect 2016 will be the same. I’m committed to doing whatever I can to help Democrats retake the Senate.”
No Middle Ground in 2016
Sean Wilentz: “If the Republicans win the presidency in 2016, they will also almost inevitably control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, giving them virtually unfettered command over the entire federal government to go along with their domination of the great majority of the state governments. The Republican president could easily be in a position to appoint new justices to the Supreme Court for an unstoppable right-wing majority that would last for a generation to come.”
“If, however, the Democrats win the presidency in 2016, they will almost certainly take back the Senate and make gains in the House – and the Democratic president will likely be able to appoint new justices to the Supreme Court that will eventually comprise a liberal majority. Between these two stark alternatives, there is no middle ground. In 2016, the country will become either one thing or the other.”
How the Freedom Caucus Took Control
Ryan Lizza has a great piece on the rise of the Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives.
“Boehner’s troubles and the rise of the Freedom Caucus are the product of resentments and expectations that the G.O.P. leadership has struggled for years to either address or dismiss… During the 2010 midterm elections Republicans promised to overturn Obama’s entire agenda… The Republicans’ first budget cut only thirty-eight billion dollars.”
Wall Street Journal: House conservatives work to reshape spending bill
Cruz Poaches Paul’s Supporters
Sen. Ted Cruz has been poaching Sen. Rand Paul’s “libertarian supporters since last January, when the Texas senator touched down in Iowa for a forum organized by Rep. Steve King (R-IA),” National Review reports.
“The first thing Cruz did on that trip — before visiting with King or any of the state’s evangelical leaders — was stop at the Holiday Inn by the airport for a private roundtable discussion with Iowa’s ‘liberty’ leaders. In the eleven months since, Cruz has made significant inroads with this constituency — the one Ron Paul created, and Rand Paul had counted on as the backbone of his campaign.”
Lawmaker Will Personally Handle Terrorists
When asked about the Syrian refugees, Nevada Assemblywoman Michele Fiore (R) said she wanted to fly to Paris and “shoot ’em in the head myself.”
Trump Quote of the Day
“I don’t look at it as competition to be honest. He can’t do what I do. Nobody can do what I do.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by Politico, dismissing Marco Rubio as a serious rival for the GOP presidential nomination.
Clinton Leads All Republicans in 2016 Match Ups
A new MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist poll finds Hillary Clinton leads the Republican presidential field in hypothetical general-election match-ups, with Ben Carson and Marco Rubio running the closest to her.
Clinton’s biggest lead is against current GOP frontrunner Donald Trump: She’s ahead of him by 11 points among all voters, 52% to 41%, and a whopping 42 points among Latino voters, 69% to 27%.
Obama Insists Plan to Fight Islamic State Is Working
Washington Post: “The administration’s insistence that its prudence and patience will pay off — vs. charges of too little, too late — have been the two opposing narratives of the 18-month battle against the Islamic State and the four-year Syrian war it has now overshadowed.”
“An examination of the recent course of events on the military and diplomatic fronts and interviews with a broad range of stakeholders and experts provide fuel for both arguments.”
Meanwhile, Politico notes Obama incorrectly suggested in his Oval Office address that the woman responsible for the San Bernandino attacks had entered the country without a visa.
Quote of the Day
“The terrorist threat has evolved into a new phase. I know that after so much war, many Americans are asking whether we are confronted by a cancer that has no immediate cure… The threat from terrorism is real, but we will overcome it.”
— President Obama, quoted by the New York Times, in an Oval Office address.
Why Obama Chose to Speak from the Oval Office
New York Times: “The choice of the Oval Office as the location for the address to the nation was partly the result of holiday happenstance: The rest of the White House is decorated for the many parties that Mr. Obama will be hosting this week for his staff, members of Congress, journalists and others.”
“But the decision also reflects the gravity of a subject that has come to define Mr. Obama’s presidency, especially in his second term: how to reassure Americans of their safety even as the United States faces an increasingly aggressive terrorist foe. And it suggests the importance that the president and his advisers place on responding to criticism of the his strategy for defeating the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.”
Washington Post: “White House officials said that a run of what they regard as fear-mongering and xenophobic speeches on the presidential campaign trail has heightened the need for Obama to speak to the nation.”
National Front Wins Big in French Elections
Exit polls show France’s far-right National Front “pulled off an historic win” Sunday, topping the vote nationally in the first round of regional elections, France 24 reports.
The centre-right Republicans party led by former President Nicolas Sarkozy appeared to be in second place ahead of the governing Socialist Party.
NBC Will Interrupt Football for Obama Speech
NBC says it will cut away from Sunday Night Football for President Obama’s Oval Office address to the nation and rejoin the game once it is done, Sports Illustrated reports.
The speech is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET, while the game should kickoff at its normal 8:25 p.m. ET start time.
Reid Says GOP Making U.S. Vulnerable to Attack
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) says Republicans are “increasing the odds of another terrorist attack on American soil by blocking legislation aimed at taking guns out of the hands of citizens suspected of holding terrorist sympathies,” The Hill reports.
Said Reid: “By blocking efforts to give law enforcement the tools they need to keep guns out of the hands of FBI terror suspects, Republicans are leaving every American community vulnerable to an attack by terrorists armed with assault weapons – just like the attacks we saw in Paris and San Bernardino.”
He added: “Republicans should be ashamed of themselves and their cowardice.”
