“Donald Trump is expected to be in court on Friday for oral arguments in his appeal of a 2023 judgment holding him liable for sexually abusing columnist E. Jean Carroll,” ABC News reports.
Harris Abandons Pledge to Ban Plastic Straws
“When Vice President Kamala Harris ran for president in 2020, she said plastic straws should be banned. On Thursday, her campaign says that’s no longer her position,” Axios reports.
“Banning plastic straws to protect the environment and marine life is the latest progressive issue on which Harris and her campaign have either declined to comment or changed her position.”
Trump Holds Edge in Latest Forecast
Nate Silver’s forecast gives Donald Trump a 60% chance to win the presidential election with Kamala Harris at just 40%.
“Subjectively this seemed to me like a decent day of polling for Kamala Harris, but she was hurt by this series of polls from a Democratic group that showed her exactly tied with Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Our polling averages apply a relatively harsh ‘house effects’ adjustment to partisan-sponsored polls, so it interprets ties in partisan polls as losing. And PA/MI/WI polls are really important to the forecast.”
Vance Says School Shootings Are a ‘Fact of Life’
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) said school shootings are a “fact of life,” so the U.S. needs to harden security to prevent more carnage like the shooting this week that left four dead in Georgia, the AP reports.
Said Vance: “If these psychos are going to go after our kids we’ve got to be prepared for it. We don’t have to like the reality that we live in, but it is the reality we live in. We’ve got to deal with it.”
Trump Staffers in Arlington Incident Identified
“One of two staffers involved in the altercation at Arlington National Cemetery is a deputy campaign manager for Donald Trump’s reelection bid,” NPR reports.
“The former president insisted this week the incident did not happen, highlighting a growing disconnect between the messaging of the candidate and his campaign. NPR is identifying both staffers after the campaign’s conflicting responses to the incident last week outside Section 60 of the cemetery, where many casualties of Iraq and Afghanistan are buried.”
“The two staffers, according to a source with knowledge of the incident, are deputy campaign manager Justin Caporale and Michel Picard, a member of Trump’s advance team.”
How Trump Uses ‘Gish Gallop’ to Spew Disinformation
Lorraine Ali: “GG, as I’ve come to call it, is a shell game/debate tactic that takes its name from Duane Gish, a prominent figure in the creationist movement who deployed dubious arguments, selective factoids and rapid-fire lies to overwhelm his opponents in public discussions about the theory of evolution.”
“The disinformation technique, coined Gish Gallop in 1994 by the National Center for Science Education’s founding director, Eugenie Scott, is essentially the art of burying one’s opponent in falsehoods, outlandish rhetoric and red herrings, making it nearly impossible for them to cut through the subterfuge and correct the lies within the timed confines of a debate.”
“Making the GG method work in one’s favor requires criminal levels of confidence and showmanship. I’m not suggesting that former President Trump studied the late creationist’s playbook, if there is such a thing. That would require reading. But there is an instructional set of videotapes.”
New Evidence Coming of Trump’s Crimes
“Judge Tanya Chutkan has set a schedule in the federal election subversion case against former President Donald Trump that will allow prosecutors to release never-before-seen evidence, such as grand jury transcripts, ahead of the presidential election,” CNN reports.
“The deadline for the filing from prosecutors is September 26, according to the latest order from the judge, which largely sides with special counsel Jack Smith’s proposed schedule discussed at Thursday’s hearing. Trump’s defense team had sought to delay the public release of evidence in the case until after the November election.”
“This is the one of several filings the judge expects before voters head to the polls. She has not scheduled additional hearings or a trial date.”
Lawmakers Seeking Promotions May Be Disappointed
“Congress used to be prime recruiting territory for incoming presidents looking to staff up their administrations. Hiring from the Hill won’t be that easy next year — no matter who wins the White House,” Semafor reports.
“That’s because Election Day is likely to end with tight margins in both chambers of Congress, giving a precarious hold on power to whichever party prevails. Many aspiring presidential nominees who want off the Hill in 2025 will face a two-part problem: Their departures could shrink their party’s numbers in a closely divided Capitol, and getting confirmed by the Senate could prove challenging. Each party has also taken hits to its power thanks to seemingly slam-dunk special elections that clanged off the rim, making it even riskier to tap members for Cabinet jobs.”
White House Condemns Tucker Carlson
The Biden administration is denouncing Tucker Carlson after the far-right personality hosted a guest on his show this week who suggested the Holocaust happened by accident, calling the interview “a disgusting and sadistic insult to all Americans,” CNN reports.
How Swing State Politics Are Sinking a Steel Deal
“The Biden administration has spent the past three years promoting a policy of ‘friend-shoring,’ which aims to contain China and Russia by forging closer ties with U.S. allies like Europe and Japan,” the New York Times reports.
“That policy appears to stop at the state lines of Pennsylvania.”
“As the administration nears a decision to block the proposed acquisition of the Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel, the traditional debate over national security and economic security is being dwarfed by a more powerful force: presidential politics.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“What’s frustrating me is I firmly believe that House Republicans are going to lose the majority — and we’re going to lose it because of ourselves.”
— Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), quoted by The Hill.
Start of Early Voting in North Carolina Could Be Delayed
“The first ballots in the nation are scheduled to start going out Friday in North Carolina, but that could be delayed after a judge ordered a temporary pause on ballot distribution,” CNN reports.
“The ruling came in response to a request from former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to remove his name from the ballot.”
Harris Leads in 4 of 7 Battleground States
The Times of London/YouGov polled the battleground states:
- Arizona: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
- Georgia: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
- Michigan: Harris 48%, Trump 43%
- Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
- North Carolina: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
- Pennsylvania: Harris 46%, Trump 45%
- Wisconsin: Harris 47%, Trump 44%
Overall, if polling averages in the other states are accurate this would give Harris a narrow lead in the electoral college, 276 to 262.
Toward Another Photo Finish
Charlie Cook: “The presidential election now looks likely to be a photo-finish, quite possibly resulting in the third Electoral College ‘inversion’ in the last seven elections. Only three times during the 1700s, 1800s, and 1900s did one major party candidate win the national popular vote and the other the Electoral College vote—1824, 1876, and 1888. It took 112 years for it to happen again, when George W. Bush lost the popular vote but beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, winning the decisive 25 electoral votes in the Sunshine State.”
“Sixteen years later, it happened again, as Trump benefited from an inversion over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, we dodged a second consecutive inversion by only about 43,000 votes spread out over three states. Indeed, we’ve gone from inversions as a historical anomaly to a scenario we’ve almost come to expect every four years.”
Ex-Trump Adviser Charged for Working with Russian TV
“The U.S. government has charged a Russian-born U.S. citizen and former adviser to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign with working for a sanctioned Russian state television network and laundering the proceeds,” the AP reports.
“Indictments announced Thursday by the Department of Justice allege that Dimitri Simes and his wife received over $1 million dollars and a personal car and driver in exchange for work they did for Russia’s Channel One since June 2022.
FBI Raids Homes of Staffers to New York City Mayor
The FBI conducted searches at the homes of two of New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ closest aides on Thursday, ABC News reports.
The FBI seized evidence, including electronics, as part of the searches.
Allan Lichtman’s ‘Keys to the White House’ Are Nonsense
Jonathan Last: “Lichtman’s keys are not objective. The professor sells his model as a series of straightforward ‘true/false’ propositions. But he leaves a lot of room for subjectivity.”
“Some of the keys have actual answers. (‘Did the incumbent party gain House seats in the previous midterm?’) But most of them are nebulous.”
“Are the incumbent and challenger nominees charismatic? Lichtman says that neither Harris nor Trump qualifies as charismatic. I do not understand this judgment. Harris has excited and unified her party in less than a month. Trump has created a cult of personality unlike anything in American political history.”
“This isn’t a ‘key’ so much as a way for the modeler to build in some wiggle room.”
Pete Buttigieg Raises Big Money for Kamala Harris
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in his personal capacity raised $4 million for Kamala Harris across five Northern California fundraisers yesterday alone, Politico reports.
