“Democrats are bracing for a more emboldened President Trump now that his acquittal is at hand, beginning with Tuesday’s State of the Union address before a nationally televised audience,” the Washington Post reports.
“Rather than seeking to unify Congress and the nation with remorse, Democrats expect Trump to ratchet up his rhetoric of grievance on the eve of Senate impeachment votes that are all but certain to acquit him for abuse of power and obstructing Congress.”
“President Trump’s re-election campaign escorted a Bloomberg News reporter from an event in Iowa, following a pledge no longer to approve credentials for the news organization,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
A new AP Votecast survey finds roughly two-thirds of Iowa caucus-goers said supporting a candidate who would fundamentally change how the system in Washington works was important to their vote.
That compares to about a third of caucus-goers who said it was more important to support a candidate who would restore the political system to how it was before President Trump’s election in 2016.
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Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), a moderate who is friendly with the White House, asked his colleagues to consider censuring President Trump as it concludes the Senate impeachment trial, the Washington Post reports.
“Manchin has prepared a censure resolution for fellow senators to consider in the coming days, which would be a less severe rebuke than removal from office for Trump’s efforts in pressuring Ukraine to investigate his domestic political rival.”
Some political reporters who had early numbers for the Des Moines Register Iowa poll that was abruptly canceled on Saturday night told BuzzFeed News that the polls has still influenced their stories about the Iowa caucuses.
Said one reporter: “You can’t help it affecting how you’re thinking.”
Those leaked numbers — which were unreleased and very possibly wrong — showed Bernie Sanders leading with 22%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 18%, Pete Buttigieg at 16% and Joe Biden at 13%.
FiveThirtyEight confirms that these are the correct final findings of the unreleased Iowa poll.
“President Trump has repeatedly said all Americans should ‘stand proudly’ during the national anthem, and publicly chastises those who don’t as disrespectful of the troops,” the Miami Herald reports.
“But during the national anthem at his own Super Bowl watch party Sunday night, a brief video posted to Instagram shows Trump greeting guests, adjusting his chair, and straightening his suit jacket as other attendees — including first lady Melania Trump and their teenage son — stand with their hands over their hearts.”
The Week: “In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Sunday, 53% of voters said they have a negative view of socialism, compared to 19% who have a positive view. The poll found the opposite result for capitalism, which 52% of voters said they have a positive view of, compared to 18% who said they have a negative view of it. This finding came ahead of the caucuses in Iowa, where Sanders has been surging.”
“But the poll still found Sanders, who describes himself as a democratic socialist, with a lead over Trump, earning 49% support in a head-to-head matchup compared to Trump’s 45%. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg also led Trump.”
“Precinct chairs across Iowa said that some of them are struggling to use the new phone application for reporting Monday night’s caucus results, potentially delaying the counting of the first votes in the 2020 Democratic race,” Bloomberg reports.
“The app was created to improve the efficiency of reporting of results… The final tally could be delayed by a few hours because the chairs will have to call the hotline and read the results instead of submitting them electronically.”
Gabriel Sherman: “With Senate Republicans on track to acquit Donald Trump on Wednesday, Washington is bracing for what an unshackled Trump does next. Republicans briefed on Trump’s thinking believe that the president is out for revenge against his adversaries.”
Said one prominent Republican: “It’s payback time.”
“Names that came up in my conversations with Republicans included Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Mitt Romney, and John Bolton. Several sources said Bolton is at the top of the list.”
“The campaign against Bolton has already begun. On January 23, the White House sent a cease and desist letter to Bolton’s lawyer demanding that Bolton’s publisher, Simon & Schuster, not release the book in March without removal of certain information. Trump intends to ratchet up the pressure, and some Republicans close to the White House fear how far Trump will take things after he’s gotten off for a second time.”
“Republican senators are expected to vote on Wednesday afternoon to acquit President Trump in the third presidential impeachment trial in U.S. history,” CNN reports.
“They would prefer the President not draw attention to that fact on Tuesday night, when he commands the country’s attention with his State of the Union address.”
Video from the inside of a police car shows Michigan state Rep. Rebekah Warren (D) extremely worried about her career after a drunken driving arrest last month, WDIV reports.
“She told officers that she’s an elected official. She failed multiple field sobriety tests and then refused a breathalyzer. She was arrested and taken for a blood sample. Blood tests showed Warren’s blood alcohol count at .21. Once in the back seat of the squad car, Warren repeatedly went on about how the arrest will ruin her career once the video is made public.”
Said Warren: “Do you understand there’s going to be a moment where we’re both going to be on TV, and it’s gonna be, like, ‘Senator from Ann Arbor’s career’s over,’? I just don’t want this on the camera for my future. Just don’t ruin my career.”
A new Morning Consult national poll finds Joe Biden’s support falling to 28% among Democratic primary voters nationwide — the lowest share measured since in early 2019. He’s trailed by Bernie Sanders at 24%.
Also interesting: Michael Bloomberg has pulled even with Elizabeth Warren in third place at 14% each.
With the Iowa caucuses finally here, Kyle Kondik has an excellent overview of the Democratic presidential primary race.
His takeaways:
“Joe Biden’s campaign team is setting expectations low for the Iowa caucuses on Monday night,” The Hill reports.
“While some campaign aides were unsure how the results would turn out hours before the caucuses would begin, they expressed some apprehension about the outcome.”
Said one longtime Biden ally: “Most feel it’s not going to be great”
“It’s been more than a year since Heidi Heitkamp lost her Senate re-election campaign to Kevin Cramer. However, according to her most recent filing with the Federal Election Commission, she still has millions of dollars in her campaign,” the Fargo Forum reports.
“How has Heitkamp been spending her campaign money over the last year? Booze, fine dining, and luxury travel make up a big chunk of it…”
“That’s how Heitkamp has been spending the money. Now let’s talk about how she could spend it. It is a potential game-changer for North Dakota Democrats this cycle if Heitkamp decides to play kingmaker. She could use some of those millions to promote statewide and local candidates.”
“I’m not running against the other Democratic candidates. I’m running to beat Donald Trump.”
— Michael Bloomberg, quoted by the Washington Post.
Michael Kruse: “Due to the sheer scale of the field, an around-the-clock, screen-scrolling amount of attention paid to national polls, national media and social media, and a pervasive, almost debilitating trepidation about picking the ‘right’ person to challenge Trump, how people perceive the candidates elsewhere is influencing how people are perceiving them here. National storylines are crowding out local issues. And in the last few fraught, fluid weeks heading into Monday’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, national chatter about who can win in November was weighing down Iowans’ brooding about who should win now.”
“I’ve heard it again and again of late, all over this state, so many Iowans wracked by indecision, practically paralyzed by dread that a choice they once relished might somehow irrevocably alter the arc of an election they suspect could be the most consequential of their lives. Spooked that they might pick wrong, they are searching desperately for the comfort of a national consensus that’s elusive because it doesn’t exist.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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