A new Boston Globe/WBZ-TV/Suffolk University poll in New Hampshire shows Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic field with 24%, followed by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg both tied at 15%, and Elizabeth Warren at 13%.
A new Emerson tracking poll finds Sanders leading with 32%, followed by Buttigieg at 17%, Biden at 13%, Warren at 11% and Klobuchar at 11%.
John Harris: “President Donald Trump likes his superlatives and you have to give him credit: He definitely earned them this time. This was the most defiant, most boastful, most ostentatiously theatrical, most overtly campaign-oriented, most am-I-hearing-this-right? outlandish — the most flamboyantly bizarre — State of the Union Address of All Time.”
“It was also the most disorienting, and hard to categorize through the prism of conventional political analysis. That prism already had lost much of its utility during the Trump Era, and the president seemed to shatter it completely in a 78-minute speech to a congressional audience whose fealty and contempt toward Trump were on display in equal and vivid measure. Trump long ago lost the capacity truly to shock, but he still has tricks up his sleeve: The speech showed he still has ability to surprise.”
“In particular, his speech was notable for the unapologetically zig-zag quality of the messaging. The usual rubric is that national politicians face a choice of mobilization or persuasion. One choice is to energize the partisan base with sharp-edged rhetoric and cultural and ideological scab-picking. The other choice is to blur lines with round-edged appeals to voters who aren’t on board but might yet be coaxed there. Trump refused the choice. In keeping with the more-is-more spirit of the speech, he did both.”
At the end of President Trump’s State of the Union address, Speaker Nancy Pelosi stood up and ripped a copy of the speech in half and threw it on the desk.
In an upset, the AP has called the Maryland 7th congressional district special primary for former Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-MD) over the widow of the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), Maya Rockeymoore Cummings.
“Joe Biden’s third presidential bid enters a critical stretch after a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses sent the former vice president on to New Hampshire with a skittish donor base, low cash reserves and the looming threat of billionaire rival Michael Bloomberg and his unlimited personal wealth,” the AP reports.
“That leaves some establishment Democrats, including some Biden supporters, questioning his contention that he’ll reclaim clear front-runner status in the race against President Trump once the primary fight moves beyond overwhelmingly white Iowa and New Hampshire to more racially diverse electorates. And it’s a reminder of how Biden’s previous presidential campaigns never advanced beyond Iowa.”
President Trump will give his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at 9 p.m. ET.
Following the speech, the Democratic response will be given by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX).
New York Times: “Surreal will be the word of the evening as President Trump marches into the same House chamber where he was impeached just seven weeks ago to address the nation even as he is on trial for high crimes and misdemeanors on the other side of the Capitol.”
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“A group of prominent South Carolina Republicans is preparing to launch a wide-scale effort this week to encourage GOP voters to vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders in the February 29 Democratic primary,” the Charleston Post and Courier reports.
“The Republican plan to meddle in the Democratic race, emerging just weeks before the ‘First in the South’ primary, has two goals: Boost the candidate who the Republicans believe presents the weakest general election threat to President Trump and pressure Democrats to support closing state primaries in the future.”
Based on the available Iowa vote count so far, the New York Times forecasts that Pete Buttigieg has a roughly 74% chance to win the most “state delegate equivalents,” while Bernie Sanders has a roughly 27% chance.
There’s still no information on when the remaining votes will be counted.
“This party needs to wake up and make sure that we talk about things that are relevant to people. We don’t need to become the British Labor Party. That’s a bad thing. It’s not going well over there. We’re, like, talking about people voting from jail cells. And not having a border.”
— James Carville, quoted by The Hill, sounding the alarm for Democrats.
If you look at the first-alignment vote in Iowa — the closest thing to an actual statewide vote, as Kyle Kondik points out — you see an almost even divide between center-left and left:
Klobuchar + Biden + Buttigieg = 50.1%
Sanders + Warren + Yang = 49.9%
“The faulty smartphone app behind the chaotic aftermath of Iowa’s Democratic caucuses was the work of a little-known company called Shadow Inc. that was founded by veterans of Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful presidential campaign, and whose previous work was marked by a string of failures, including a near bankruptcy,” the New York Times reports.
“The app grew out of a broader push by Democrats, backed by tens of millions of dollars in donor money, to match the Republicans’ prowess in digital advertising and organizing after the 2016 election. Much of the energy and investment have gone into enterprises that are intended to both boost the Democrats’ digital game and turn a profit, like Shadow.”
“President Trump told network anchors during a private lunch Tuesday that he will award Rush Limbaugh with the Medal of Freedom, one day after the prominent political radio host announced he has advanced lung cancer,” CNN reports.
After 20 hours of waiting, the Iowa Democratic party finally released caucus results — but from just 62% of precincts across Iowa.
The results based on state delegates awarded: Pete Buttigieg at 26.9%, Bernie Sanders at 25.1%, Elizabeth Warren at 18.3%, Joe Biden at 15.6% and Amy Klobuchar at 12.6%.
In terms of popular vote, Sanders holds a slight lead over Buttigieg.
Important takeaway: This is probably not enough of the vote for a network projection. There was no time frame given for releasing the full results.
Vanity Fair: “The order of finish, whenever it arrives, matters to Bloomberg’s long-shot prospects: The weaker the results for Joe Biden and the stronger the numbers for Bernie Sanders and for Elizabeth Warren, the better for Bloomberg, who is positioning himself as a moderate with deep governing experience and a bottomless bank account.”
“But the Iowa muddle is already allowing Bloomberg to emerge as a perceptual victor: The candidate of cold-blooded competence who has been a high-profile success in both private business and public office. A campaign aide says that today Bloomberg is ‘immediately increasing ad spending in current markets and adding new markets, with our total gross ratings points doubling from 1,200 to 2,400.’ In civilian language: You won’t be able to turn on a TV or a computer without seeing a Bloomberg ad.”
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — seen as a swing vote in President Trump’s impeachment trial — said Tuesday she supports acquittal, the Los Angeles Times reports.
While Colllins said Trump’s actions were “improper and demonstrated very poor judgment,” she concluded they did not meet the threshold for removal from office.
Said Collins: “I do not believe that the House has met its burden of showing that the president’s conduct, however flawed, warrants the extreme step of immediate removal from office, nor does the record support the assertion by the House managers that the president must not remain in office one moment longer.”
Collins to CBS News: “I believe that the president has learned from this case. The president has been impeached. That’s a pretty big lesson.”
Rudy Giuliani told NPR that President should not back away from investigating Joe Biden even after the president’s expected acquittal by the U.S. Senate.
Said Giuliani: “Absolutely; 100%. I would have no problem with him doing it. In fact, I’d have a problem with him not doing it. I think he would be saying that Joe Biden can get away with selling out the United States, making us a fool in the Ukraine.”
“Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) used the Senate floor to read aloud the name of an intelligence community official alleged to be the whistleblower who first raised alarms about President Donald Trump’s conduct toward Ukraine,” Politico reports.
Vanity Fair excerpts Sinking in the Swamp by Lachlan Markay and Asawin Suebsaeng: “The 2016 campaign wanted Trump to release an official written statement renouncing birther conspiracy theories and declaring once and for all that baby Barack was born in the United States. His aides asked him for a short and sweet statement…”
“This kicked off what two people on the call independently described as a seven‐minute, meandering spat of word vomit during which Trump kept finding new ways to say that his birther crusade was, in fact, necessary, good, and proper. He repeatedly echoed his past comments on the matter… Really, Trump reasoned, what he did was a smashing success that warranted no apology, and he was happy he helped settle one of the great questions of our time.”
“Had this soliloquy been made public, it would have spanned two pages, single spaced.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.