Trump’s Loss Won’t Make Politics Any Easier
Stuart Rothenberg: “One final point should not be missed: Even with his impending defeat, Trump’s performance is mind-boggling. Given his campaign style, obvious personality issues, middle-of-the-night tweets, lack of knowledge, amateurish campaign, thin-skinned reaction to criticism and generally inappropriate comments about many people and groups, it is surprising that he will receive as many votes as he will.”
“Trump’s showing in the polls, though he will probably fall short on Election Day, confirms the deep fissure in the country and suggests that the next few years will not be any easier than the past few.”
Quote of the Day
“Ok, I take it back. Polls aren’t ONLY good for strippers and cross country skiers.”
— Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), on Facebook, of a survey showing a tied race in Michigan.
Right Wing Media Won’t Go Away Quietly If Trump Loses
“Imagine this scenario: It’s just before midnight on Election Day, and all the major American news organizations have called the presidential race for Hillary Clinton,” CNN reports.
“Now, if in that scenario you imagine Donald Trump and his right-wing media boosters quietly and graciously retreating from the fight — think again.”
“Trump and the conservative media that has rallied around him — from Breitbart to Sean Hannity to Drudge Report — is almost certain to use his loss as an opportunity to advance the argument that the system is rigged, the political-media establishment is to blame, and any Republican who didn’t jump on board the Trump train deserves to be cast out of office.”
How Much Damage Has This Campaign Done?
Gerald Seib: “Elections can either pull a country together or tear it apart. With Election Day nearly at hand, it is a statement of the painfully obvious to say that Campaign 2016 fell into the latter category.”
“Worse, there is ample reason to believe the campaign has inflicted wounds that won’t be easy to heal before the politicians who survive must turn to actually governing the country. Has the nation ever before experienced an election in which leaders of one party are talking of impeaching a new president of the other party before the ballots are even in?”
Turnout Tracker
Slate has launched its Turnout Tracker, which is powered by Votecastr.
The Real Voter Fraud
David Leonhart: “When you cast your ballot on Tuesday — and make sure that you do — or watch others go to the polls, I encourage you to keep in mind your disenfranchised fellow citizens…”
“Congress could set minimum standards for each state — requiring automatic voter registration, for example. I realize that most congressional Republicans now have little interest in voting rights. But I’d urge them to consider their party’s long-term interests: Opposing basic rights for large and growing groups is not so smart.”
“If Congress won’t act, the Supreme Court can. The court can acknowledge that its 2013 dismantling of a key part of the Voting Rights Act hinged on an overly rosy view of the aftermath. The Equal Protection Clause offers one solution, as the scholar Richard Hasen has argued: The justices could interpret it to overturn state laws making it harder to register and vote.”
The Democratic Party’s Reagan
First Read: “One way to view the presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is it being the final battle of the eight-year-long Obama War. Think about it: You have one candidate (Clinton) who has embraced 98% of Obama’ agenda, as the current president has spent much of the fall campaigning for her, including last night in Philadelphia. And you have the other candidate (Trump) who not only first entered the political fray of the Obama Era by questioning the president’s birthplace and legitimacy for office, but who is also Obama’s polar opposite in so many ways.”
“That’s why the divides we see in this Clinton-vs.-Trump contest — on race, gender, age, and geography — were the same ones we spotted eight years ago. The Obama Era has featured so many different political battles. 2008. Obamacare. The Debt-Ceiling Standoff. 2012. The Government Shutdown. The 2014 Midterms. And tonight is the final one. Which side will win? There are no certainties in politics, but the side who has a current president with a 53% approval rating in the last NBC/WSJ poll has the upper hand. And a Clinton win would be affirmation that Obama is the Democratic Party’s Ronald Reagan.”
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Time for a New Party
David Brooks: “Personally I’ve always disdained talk of a third party, mostly because the structural barriers against such parties are so high, no matter how scintillatingly attractive they seem in theory. But it’s becoming clear that the need for a third party outweighs even the very real barriers.”
“The Republican Party will probably remain the white working-class party, favoring closed trade, closed borders and American withdrawal abroad. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, is increasingly dominated by its left/Sanders wing, which offers its own populism of the left.”
“There has to be a party for those who are now homeless. There has to be a party as confidently opposed to populism as populists are in favor of it.”
It’s Election Day!
If you haven’t done so already, get out and vote!
Chuck Todd: “It’s tempting to invoke President Gerald Ford’s attempt to calm the nation after Watergate by observing that, at least momentarily, our long, national nightmare is almost over.”
“But considering that the signs point to something of a split decision in the election — Democrats retaining the White House, the GOP in charge in the House and the Senate in precarious balance — it’s hard to imagine sunny political skies in the forecast any time soon.”
The Final Forecasts
The consensus electoral map that we put together for members over the weekend — join today! — has Hillary Clinton winning with 322 electoral votes with Donald Trump at 215 electoral votes.
Every single major electoral vote forecast also gives the advantage to Hillary Clinton.
FiveThirtyEight: 72%
Princeton: 99%
DailyKos: 92%
Huffington Post: 98%
In addition, the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball also point to a Clinton victory.
The National Polls Suddenly Converge
Nate Silver: “Seven of the 19 polls have Clinton leading by 4 points; another four have her ahead by 3 points… It’s worth raising an eyebrow, though, when the polls (other than the L.A. Times) show a range this tight at the end of an election, especially given that they’d diverged so much earlier in the campaign. That probably reflects some degree of herding — for instance, because pollsters stick surveys that seem to be outliers in a file drawer rather than publishing them. So the tight range of polls shouldn’t be taken to mean that everyone’s figured exactly how to poll this challenging election just in the nick of time.”
“Still, the polls clearly agree that Clinton is the favorite, and perhaps has a slight wind at her back for Election Day.”
Early Voting Has Reshaped Campaigns
New York Times: “Voting before Election Day has become so commonplace that it is reshaping how campaigns are waged, and how Americans see the race in its final, frantic days.”
“The spread of early balloting is forging new habits that are forcing campaigns to rethink how they allocate their resources. And it tends to favor those campaigns that are more technologically sophisticated and can identify, draw out and measure its support over a longer voting period.”
Trump Hopes for a Miracle
Politico: “It would take nothing short of a miracle for Donald Trump to convert his combustible campaign into a solid win, after having spent 17 months ripping apart the Republican Party, shocking America with his anarchic language and inspiring legions of voters who feel left behind by the economic recovery.”
“Going into Election Day, Clinton had a small but sturdy lead. The final national polls released on Monday showed the former secretary of state with a 3- to 6-point advantage, giving Clinton a more comfortable lead than President Barack Obama enjoyed in 2012.”
“Early voting trends were also breaking Clinton’s way. At least 42 million Americans cast their ballots ahead of Tuesday — potentially one-third of the overall vote — and data showed Hispanics coming out strong for the Democratic nominee.”
GOP Insiders Say Turnout Operation Insufficient
“Republican strategists on Monday dumped all over their party’s voter turnout operation, calling it insufficient to the task and lagging behind Hillary Clinton’s machine,” the Washington Examiner reports.
“Some of the criticism was directed at Donald Trump. The Republican nominee de-valued field and data activities and in unusual fashion delegated voter turnout almost entirely to the Republican National Committee.”
“The RNC also came under fire for its performance, however, although some of the veteran GOP political operatives that spoke to the Washington Examiner said the party did as well as could be expected under the circumstances.”
Election Night Guide
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