Nate Silver: “The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has tightened. Clinton, whose lead over Trump exceeded 8 percentage points at her peak following the Democratic convention, is ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points today, according to our polls-only forecast.”

“But what if the race continues to tighten? I’ve often heard Democrats express a belief that Clinton’s position in the swing states will protect her in the Electoral College even if the race draws to a dead heat overall. But this is potentially mistaken. Although it’s plausible that Clinton’s superior field operation will eventually pay dividends, so far her swing state results have ebbed and flowed with her national numbers.”

“The other thing to notice about Clinton’s swing state polls is that they aren’t especially strong (or weak) relative to her national polls.”

For members: Clinton Could Lose Many Swing States and Still Win

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “It seems like only yesterday when the Republicans took over the U.S. Senate. Actually, nearly two years have passed since that big moment, when the GOP gained nine seats and took a 54-46 majority (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats) after eight years of Democratic control.”

“But this may prove to be the shortest period of control for a party since the early 2000s. From the vantage point of Labor Day, it appears as though that 2014 flip could become a 2016 flop, and on Nov. 8, Democrats have a good chance to grab at least a tie (broken by the new vice president) and possibly a majority of as many as several seats. We let the Senate races settle over the summer but summer’s effectively over — and we are making eight different ratings changes this week. Many favor Democrats, but a few favor Republicans. The takeaway is that as we head into the stretch run of the campaign, the Democrats seemingly hold a narrow edge in the race for a majority. But that majority could be quite small, small enough that Republicans could be poised to wipe it out in 2018, perhaps leading to another bare minimum stint in the majority.”

A new Morning Consult poll a large percentage of voters say the Libertarian and Green Party nominees, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, should be included in the first presidential debate.

Key findings: 52% say Johnson should be included and 47% say Stein should be allowed to participate.

Overall, a large majority of voters (66%) say they are likely to watch the first presidential debate.

A new Fox News poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the presidential race nationally by just two points, 41% to 39%, with Gary Johnson at 9% and Jill Stein at 4%.

The third-party candidates take more from Clinton than Trump, as she holds a six-point lead in the two-way matchup, 48% to 42%.

For comparison, the HuffPost Pollster national average shows Clinton still leading by six points, 47% to 41%.