Jonathan Last: “To my eyes, this suggests that Trump’s 2016 and 2020 numbers should be substantially similar to his 2024 numbers.”

“Which in turn means that the polling on Trump’s vote share today is (a) probably accurate and (b) close to his ceiling pretty much across the board.”

“None of this means that Kamala Harris will win. But it does suggest that there won’t be surprises on Election Day in Trump’s column. He’s going to hit the numbers he’s at.”

“Does this make you feel any better?”

“For me, the answer is yes, because it clarifies what Harris has to do. She’s not fighting a phantom. Her task is to find that extra point or two and turn out her people. That seems more achievable than beating a smoke monster who might magically outperform his polling by +3.”

Bloomberg: “Now the state has also become an unlikely talking point for Democratic fundraisers and strategists as a small but tantalizing presidential election prize after a poll last month showed Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by just 5 percentage points.”

“Polling there has been more sparse than in traditional swing states. But in an election year in which crazier things have already happened — it suddenly seemed not impossible for the Harris campaign to scoop up Alaska’s three electoral votes, offering an alternative path to the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency.”

Comedian Andrew Schulz laughed in Donald Trump’s face when the former president joined him on his podcast and claimed he “is basically a truthful person,” The Independent reports.

“Donald Trump’s contributions from small-dollar donors have plummeted since his last White House campaign, presenting the former president with a financial challenge as he tries to keep pace with the Democrats’ fundraising machine,” the AP reports.

“Fewer than a third of the Republican’s campaign contributions have come from donors who gave less than $200 — down from nearly half of all donations in his 2020 race.”

“The dip has forced Trump to rely more on wealthy donors and groups backed by them, a shift that cuts into the populist message that first propelled him to the White House. The decline in donations could not come at a worse time for Trump. Democrats have raised massive sums from small-dollar donors this cycle.”

The Atlantic endorses Kamala Harris for president.

“For the third time in eight years, Americans have to decide whether they want Donald Trump to be their president. No voter could be ignorant by now of who he is. Opinions about Trump aren’t just hardened—they’re dried out and exhausted. The man’s character has been in our faces for so long, blatant and unchanging, that it kills the possibility of new thoughts, which explains the strange mix of boredom and dread in our politics.”

“Whenever Trump senses any waning of public attention, he’ll call his opponent a disgusting name, or dishonor the memory of fallen soldiers, or threaten to overturn the election if he loses, or vow to rule like a dictator if he wins. He knows that nothing he says is likely to change anyone’s views.”