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You are here: Home / Archives for AZ-Sen

Sinema Made 2024 Math More Difficult for Democrats

December 12, 2022 at 9:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Harry Enten: “Sinema is not popular at all. The CES poll had her approval rating below her disapproval rating with Democrats, independents and Republicans in Arizona. Sinema’s overall approval stood at 25% to a disapproval rating of 58%. Other polling isn’t nearly as dire for Sinema, but the average of it all has her firmly being more unpopular than popular.”

“Put another way, Sinema’s current numbers are probably not going to scare off many challengers from either the Democratic or Republican side. Additionally, there’s zero reason for Democrats to cede the ground to Sinema because it would keep a Republican from winning. It isn’t clear at all that Sinema can win as an independent.”

“What Sinema’s move did accomplish is that it made the electoral math a lot more complicated in Arizona and therefore nationally. Having two people in the race who are going to caucus with the Democratic Party likely makes it more difficult for the Democrats to win.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Sinema’s Mutually Assured Destruction

December 11, 2022 at 4:47 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s stunning decision to become an independent has triggered the possibility of a blue-on-purple civil war that could cost Democrats a must-win Senate seat in 2024,” Axios reports.

“Sinema would have had difficulty winning a primary. But she can win a general election — and might even be the favorite — if no Democrat of consequence runs.”

“But if moderate and progressive Democrats split, her move risks handing the Senate seat to a Republican nominee — potentially a right-wing candidate like Kari Lake.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Flashback Quote of the Day

December 9, 2022 at 2:59 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“He’s a shame to Democrats… I don’t even know why he’s running. He seems to want to get Republicans voting for him — what kind of strategy is that?”

— Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, quoted by Mother Jones in 2003, criticizing Sen. Joe Lieberman for leaving the Democratic party to be an independent.

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Did Kyrsten Sinema Just End Her Political Career?

December 9, 2022 at 2:55 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “The conventional wisdom of American politics is that the two-party system makes it difficult, albeit not impossible, to win as an independent. In the Senate, Bernie Sanders and Angus King have done so, but they are pretty much viewed as Democrats by another name, and the state and national party organizations have never marshaled resources to defeat them.”

“Sinema won’t be in the same boat. She’s bucked her party many a time and made rare alliances with Republicans. While she will be accepting committee seats from Schumer, she appears to be distancing herself from the Democratic caucus, and because of that, she risks being secluded on a political island.”

“While Biden and Schumer have so far been conciliatory, the state Democratic Party and a potential 2024 challenger, Rep. Ruben Gallego, have not — both attacking her for acting out of self-interest rather than the state’s interest.”

Politico: “While she’s always been a strong fundraiser, she would lack party resources — like a ground game — that are critical for voter turnout, particularly in a sprawling state like Arizona. Republicans in the state, even if some do support her, would not be expected to assist with that.”

Nate Silver: “Sinema was not very popular with anyone, I’m not sure whether today’s move increases or decreases her chances of winning another term (I actually suspect decreases) but they were low to begin with and they remain low.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Totally on Brand for Sinema

December 9, 2022 at 1:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Pfeiffer: “Notably, Sinema has not yet announced a run for reelection, but if she does, she will do so as an Independent and avoid a Democratic Primary altogether. Democrats would be in a very difficult position. They could either support an Independent who mostly agrees with them and votes for a Democratic majority or run their own candidate, possibly split the anti-MAGA majority and hand the seat to a Republican.”

“Recent elections and the partisan makeup of Arizona suggest Sinema might be right. According to the exit polls, Mark Kelly won reelection with the support of nine percent of Republican voters and 55 percent of Independents. In a three-way race between a Democrat, Sinema, and a Republican, the GOPer would be a strong favorite to win.”

“All in all, a strategic move for her, but that doesn’t make it any less annoying. In other words, totally on brand for Kyrsten Sinema.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Trump Claims Arizona Election Not Over Yet

November 18, 2022 at 8:36 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump, speaking at a gala, said that Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) went through “an incredible election” but said “it’s not over yet” — even though the race was called for Katie Hobbs (D).

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Mark Kelly Was at an Elton John Concert When Race Called

November 14, 2022 at 12:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) were at an Elton John concert when the AP called his race.

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Kelly Maintains Small Lead Ahead of Election Day

November 4, 2022 at 5:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Marist poll in Arizona finds Sen. Mark Kelly (D) just ahead of challenger Blake Masters, 50% to 47% among voters who say they definitely plan to cast a ballot in this year’s election.

Among registered voters, Kelly holds a 49% to 45% lead.

For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight poling average shows Kelly ahead by two points.

In the governor’s race, Katie Hobbs (D) is barely ahead of Kari Lake (R), 49% to 48% among those who definitely plan to vote.

A new Insider Advantage poll finds Kelly and Masters deadlocked at 48% each.

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Masters Pledges to Use Kyrsten Sinema as Role Model

November 3, 2022 at 6:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters (R) told the Daily Mail that he is “prepared to be a thorn in the side of party leader Mitch McConnell if he pulls off a win” and that he’ll take his cues from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).

Said Masters: “She’s a very talented politician. She’s good. She’s active. She’s really actively engaged. And I hear this from Republicans — if you got a problem you call Sinema’s office you get a response.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Libertarian Drops Out of Arizona Senate Race

November 1, 2022 at 7:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Libertarian candidate running for Senate in Arizona — who had threatened to play spoiler in the closely watched race — is dropping out and endorsing Blake Masters, the Republican nominee,” the New York Times reports.

“The decision, announced on Tuesday, gives Mr. Masters a lift heading into the final week as he seeks to unseat Senator Mark Kelly, the Democratic incumbent, who has generally held a narrow lead in the polls.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Arizona Races Remain Very Close

October 31, 2022 at 9:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new OH Predictive Insights in Arizona finds Sen. Mark Kelly (D) leading challenger Blake Masters (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

In the governor’s race, Kari Lake (R) holds an edge over Katie Hobbs (D), 49% to 47%.

Also interesting: In a turn of events, Adrian Fontes (D) has taken the lead in the Secretary of State race over the previously leading Trump-backed candidate, Mark Finchem (R), 48% to 42%.

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Gov, AZ-Sen

Last-Minute Millions Arrives for Blake Masters

October 29, 2022 at 1:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Millions of last-minute dollars are flooding into Arizona to prop up Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters, after a key group aligned with GOP Leader Mitch McConnell decided against helping him in the race,” Axios reports.

“The Club for Growth, a leading conservative outside spender, is dropping $5.5 million into the Arizona Senate race in its closing days.”

“That substantial sum — dumped largely into TV ads this week and next — was prompted by recent private polling showing Masters closing on incumbent Mark Kelly (D) in a race that could help determine control of the upper chamber.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Arizona Senate Race Now a Toss Up

October 27, 2022 at 6:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Blake Masters can claim little credit for Republicans’ Arizona comeback — but he is reaping the benefits, propelling him back into contention for a key Senate seat some in the GOP once wrote off,” Politico reports.

“Voters’ dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s job performance and a strong campaign from gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have helped Masters close most of the gap with Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. What we once described as a ‘Lean Democratic’ race in Politico’s Election Forecast is now a ‘Toss Up,’ meaning neither Kelly nor Masters has a significant advantage in the contest.”

The Cook Political Report also moved the race to Toss Up.

Arizona Republic: Blake Masters getting late boost from $3.7 million super PAC ad buy.

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Kari Lake Opens Wide Lead in Arizona

October 26, 2022 at 4:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Insider Advantage poll in Arizona shows Kari Lake (R) leading Katie Hobbs (D) in the race for governor, 54% to 43%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) leads challenger Blake Masters (R), 45% to 43%, with Libertarian Marc Victor at 6%.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: AZ-Gov, AZ-Sen

Trump’s Super PAC Moves to Help Blake Masters

October 26, 2022 at 8:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters (R) “is getting a boost from Donald Trump as the former President looks to cement his kingmaker status in a state he lost in 2020,” CNN reports.

“Trump’s group has already spent $1.8 million in the Arizona Senate contest, according to data from AdImpact. A person close to Trump said the former President is willing to invest heavily in the battleground state during the final two weeks of the midterm race if he believes it will help carry Masters over the finish line.”

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Trump Chewed Out Blake Masters Over Voter Fraud

October 25, 2022 at 10:53 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump took Blake Masters (R) to task after the Arizona Republican Senate nominee said in a debate this month that he hadn’t seen evidence of election fraud in Arizona,” CNN reports.

“During a phone call between Trump and Masters captured in a Fox documentary at some point after the debate, the former President can be heard encouraging Masters to lean into his unfounded election fraud claims.”

Said Trump: “If you want to get across the line, you’ve got to go stronger on that one thing. That was the one thing, a lot of complaints about it.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Kari Lake Runs New Ad Featuring Homophobic Pastor

October 25, 2022 at 10:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Corn looks at a new ad from Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R).

“It covers the Republican basics: A seemingly conscientious and decent owner of a small business—and his family—is dealing with economic hardship and feels endangered by those liberal Democrats. But the ad leaves out important information: Erickson is not merely a local business owner concerned with inflation; he is a homophobic and Islamophobic pastor.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign, Political Advertising Tagged With: AZ-Sen

Blake Masters Has Christian Nationalist on Payroll

October 21, 2022 at 12:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters (R) named a far-right Christian nationalist as “volunteer of the week” even though he’s been on its payroll for months, Jewish Insider reports.

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign Tagged With: AZ-Sen

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Follow me on Twitter, Mastodon and Post.News.

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