Harry Enten: “Sinema is not popular at all. The CES poll had her approval rating below her disapproval rating with Democrats, independents and Republicans in Arizona. Sinema’s overall approval stood at 25% to a disapproval rating of 58%. Other polling isn’t nearly as dire for Sinema, but the average of it all has her firmly being more unpopular than popular.”

“Put another way, Sinema’s current numbers are probably not going to scare off many challengers from either the Democratic or Republican side. Additionally, there’s zero reason for Democrats to cede the ground to Sinema because it would keep a Republican from winning. It isn’t clear at all that Sinema can win as an independent.”

“What Sinema’s move did accomplish is that it made the electoral math a lot more complicated in Arizona and therefore nationally. Having two people in the race who are going to caucus with the Democratic Party likely makes it more difficult for the Democrats to win.”

“Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s stunning decision to become an independent has triggered the possibility of a blue-on-purple civil war that could cost Democrats a must-win Senate seat in 2024,” Axios reports.

“Sinema would have had difficulty winning a primary. But she can win a general election — and might even be the favorite — if no Democrat of consequence runs.”

“But if moderate and progressive Democrats split, her move risks handing the Senate seat to a Republican nominee — potentially a right-wing candidate like Kari Lake.”

“He’s a shame to Democrats… I don’t even know why he’s running. He seems to want to get Republicans voting for him — what kind of strategy is that?”

— Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, quoted by Mother Jones in 2003, criticizing Sen. Joe Lieberman for leaving the Democratic party to be an independent.

Playbook: “The conventional wisdom of American politics is that the two-party system makes it difficult, albeit not impossible, to win as an independent. In the Senate, Bernie Sanders and Angus King have done so, but they are pretty much viewed as Democrats by another name, and the state and national party organizations have never marshaled resources to defeat them.”

“Sinema won’t be in the same boat. She’s bucked her party many a time and made rare alliances with Republicans. While she will be accepting committee seats from Schumer, she appears to be distancing herself from the Democratic caucus, and because of that, she risks being secluded on a political island.”

“While Biden and Schumer have so far been conciliatory, the state Democratic Party and a potential 2024 challenger, Rep. Ruben Gallego, have not — both attacking her for acting out of self-interest rather than the state’s interest.”

Politico: “While she’s always been a strong fundraiser, she would lack party resources — like a ground game — that are critical for voter turnout, particularly in a sprawling state like Arizona. Republicans in the state, even if some do support her, would not be expected to assist with that.”

Nate Silver: “Sinema was not very popular with anyone, I’m not sure whether today’s move increases or decreases her chances of winning another term (I actually suspect decreases) but they were low to begin with and they remain low.”

Dan Pfeiffer: “Notably, Sinema has not yet announced a run for reelection, but if she does, she will do so as an Independent and avoid a Democratic Primary altogether. Democrats would be in a very difficult position. They could either support an Independent who mostly agrees with them and votes for a Democratic majority or run their own candidate, possibly split the anti-MAGA majority and hand the seat to a Republican.”

“Recent elections and the partisan makeup of Arizona suggest Sinema might be right. According to the exit polls, Mark Kelly won reelection with the support of nine percent of Republican voters and 55 percent of Independents. In a three-way race between a Democrat, Sinema, and a Republican, the GOPer would be a strong favorite to win.”

“All in all, a strategic move for her, but that doesn’t make it any less annoying. In other words, totally on brand for Kyrsten Sinema.”

Donald Trump, speaking at a gala, said that Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) went through “an incredible election” but said “it’s not over yet” — even though the race was called for Katie Hobbs (D).

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) were at an Elton John concert when the AP called his race.

A new Marist poll in Arizona finds Sen. Mark Kelly (D) just ahead of challenger Blake Masters, 50% to 47% among voters who say they definitely plan to cast a ballot in this year’s election.

Among registered voters, Kelly holds a 49% to 45% lead.

For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight poling average shows Kelly ahead by two points.

In the governor’s race, Katie Hobbs (D) is barely ahead of Kari Lake (R), 49% to 48% among those who definitely plan to vote.

A new Insider Advantage poll finds Kelly and Masters deadlocked at 48% each.

Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters (R) told the Daily Mail that he is “prepared to be a thorn in the side of party leader Mitch McConnell if he pulls off a win” and that he’ll take his cues from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).

Said Masters: “She’s a very talented politician. She’s good. She’s active. She’s really actively engaged. And I hear this from Republicans — if you got a problem you call Sinema’s office you get a response.”

“The Libertarian candidate running for Senate in Arizona — who had threatened to play spoiler in the closely watched race — is dropping out and endorsing Blake Masters, the Republican nominee,” the New York Times reports.

“The decision, announced on Tuesday, gives Mr. Masters a lift heading into the final week as he seeks to unseat Senator Mark Kelly, the Democratic incumbent, who has generally held a narrow lead in the polls.”

“Millions of last-minute dollars are flooding into Arizona to prop up Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters, after a key group aligned with GOP Leader Mitch McConnell decided against helping him in the race,” Axios reports.

“The Club for Growth, a leading conservative outside spender, is dropping $5.5 million into the Arizona Senate race in its closing days.”

“That substantial sum — dumped largely into TV ads this week and next — was prompted by recent private polling showing Masters closing on incumbent Mark Kelly (D) in a race that could help determine control of the upper chamber.”

“Blake Masters can claim little credit for Republicans’ Arizona comeback — but he is reaping the benefits, propelling him back into contention for a key Senate seat some in the GOP once wrote off,” Politico reports.

“Voters’ dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s job performance and a strong campaign from gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have helped Masters close most of the gap with Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. What we once described as a ‘Lean Democratic’ race in Politico’s Election Forecast is now a ‘Toss Up,’ meaning neither Kelly nor Masters has a significant advantage in the contest.”

The Cook Political Report also moved the race to Toss Up.

Arizona Republic: Blake Masters getting late boost from $3.7 million super PAC ad buy.

“Donald Trump took Blake Masters (R) to task after the Arizona Republican Senate nominee said in a debate this month that he hadn’t seen evidence of election fraud in Arizona,” CNN reports.

“During a phone call between Trump and Masters captured in a Fox documentary at some point after the debate, the former President can be heard encouraging Masters to lean into his unfounded election fraud claims.”

Said Trump: “If you want to get across the line, you’ve got to go stronger on that one thing. That was the one thing, a lot of complaints about it.”

Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters (R) named a far-right Christian nationalist as “volunteer of the week” even though he’s been on its payroll for months, Jewish Insider reports.