“Mark Lamb, a right-wing sheriff and an ally of former President Donald Trump known for his policing of elections and his defiance of a pandemic lockdown, announced Tuesday that he would run for Senate in Arizona next year, a contest that could determine control of the closely divided chamber,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Lamb became the first high-profile Republican to compete for the seat, one currently held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in December to become an independent. Ms. Sinema has not said whether she will run, but if she does, there is already one Democratic challenger: Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive Democrat from Phoenix.”

Vox: “Her campaign would zero in on the politically moderate, wealthier, and unaffiliated voters that live in the state’s suburban neighborhoods and would aim to peel away support from a Trump-aligned Republican. And it would need to raise a lot of money — at least $40 million to be competitive, according to in-state experts.”

Tara Palmeri: “Chuck Schumer has likely been up all night with desert-hued nightmares of the 2024 Arizona Senate race—in particular, how the current murder-suicide pact between Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema could deliver the seat to the election-results denying Kari Lake, essentially a more telegenic Marjorie Taylor Greene.”

“As that showdown looms in the distant-but-not-too-distant future, Gallego has peeled off much of Sinema’s Silicon Valley donor base, the same crew of influential female philanthropists who paved the way for her 2018 election in the name of girl power and turning purple Arizona blue. Critically, Gallego has won over rising mega-donor Karla Jurvetson, who famously gave Elizabeth Warren’s super PAC a $15 million check when her 2020 campaign was low on cash.”

“Winning over Jurvetson was a coup for Gallego—not just because of her deep pockets, but also on account of her status among the Silicon Valley set as an alpha fundraiser who wealthy women in the Bay Area looked to for guidance.”

“Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is inching closer to deciding to run for Senate, and her expected candidacy has frozen the Republican field in the state as other Senate hopefuls wait for her decision,” the Washington Post reports.

“Lake, a former local television anchor who falsely claims that she won her 2022 race for Arizona governor, is considered the most formidable opponent in a Republican primary, and at least three Republican candidates also sizing up the race are waiting for her to make a decision before they decide to run.”

“There is deep concern about Lake’s viability in a general election, national Republican operatives said.”

A new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is leading every one of his potential competitors.

Key takeaway: “As of now, Ruben Gallego’s best bet would be the GOP nominating a Trump-style Republican and Kyrsten Sinema opting out of the race. However, if Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate, Republicans will be in a better position for a more competitive race with Sinema on the ticket.”

“Sinema stands a better chance if Gallego does not run. However, assuming that is not likely, her best bet is that Ducey opts out of the race. Regardless, as the Arizona electorate stands now, it’s going to be an uphill climb for Sinema.”

Tara Pameri: “There’s a consensual delusion playing out within part of the left these days that Kyrsten Sinema—the subject of endless Washingtonian curiosity on account of her tacky yellow-winged frocks, wigs, go-go boots, oenophile bisexual ironman lifestyle, date nights with Kevin McCarthy, and, yes, Democrat-to-independent conversion—might somehow decide not to run for re-election in 2024.”

“Of course, that would make things easier for the Democrats—easier for Rep. Ruben Gallego, her pesky Democratic challenger, who has been aiming his fire at Sinema for years; for majority leader Chuck Schumer, who presumably prefers to stay neutral rather than antagonize Sinema, who votes with his caucus the vast majority of the time; and for caucus more generally, which is sick of her complicating their priorities as a mini-Manchin. Perhaps, the wistful fantasy goes, Sinema will just decide she’d rather ride things out writing bestsellers in the desert and sitting on the board of companies like Pfizer.”

“Alas, this is all nonsense: Sinema, a fundraising machine and darling of Wall Street and Big Pharma, alike, will run for Senate in Arizona as an independent, even if that means she’s a spoiler for Democrats.”

“Defeated Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee on Thursday,” Politico reports.

“The meeting comes as Lake is considering a run for the Senate in Arizona. Caroline Wren, a senior adviser to Lake, confirmed the meeting, saying it lasted about an hour and that the topics of discussion included the differences between running a Senate and a gubernatorial campaign.”

Yahoo News: “There’s no shortage of Democratic senators in danger of losing their seats in 2024. Joe Manchin in ruby-red West Virginia. Jon Tester in solidly Republican Montana. Sherrod Brown in ever-more-conservative Ohio. And their colleagues in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan — four of the purplest places on the map.”

“But if the latest polls are to be believed, no Senate incumbent is in as much trouble as Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema.”

“Newly independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is being courted by Senate Republicans, as the Democrat running to take her seat next year raked in $1 million the day after announcing his candidacy,” Bloomberg reports.

“Rep. Ruben Gallego has capitalized on Sinema’s unpopularity with Democrats in Arizona and nationwide, pulling in donations from 27,000 people after making his much-anticipated 2024 bid for the Senate seat official on Monday.”

Punchbowl News: “It seems like a pretty simple question. But most Senate Democrats won’t answer it directly.”

“Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego’s entrance into the Arizona Senate race has paralyzed Democratic leaders — at least temporarily — as they ponder what will be a major decision with far-reaching implications for control of the Senate and a seat they badly need to hold onto.”

“Few Democrats would tell us last night whether they favor backing the eventual Democratic nominee or incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who left the party in December. Their responses were pretty consistent: It’s too early to say.”

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) launched his U.S. Senate campaign this morning with an extraordinary video.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) announced he will run for Senate in Arizona on Monday, setting up a potential three-way race in the battleground state in 2024 that poses a threat to independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s hold on the seat, the Washington Post reports.

Axios: “Sinema has yet to confirm whether she’ll run for re-election.”

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said on Sunday he would support Sen. Kirsten Sinema (I-AZ) if she seeks reelection in 2024, even if the newly-independent senator is challenged by a Democrat, The Hill reports.

“Rep. Ruben Gallego, a former Marine combat veteran who was critical of Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s leadership and fidelity to the Democratic Party long before she announced she was leaving it to become an independent, will announce his 2024 Senate campaign to challenge her on Monday, Newsweek has learned first,” Newsweek reports.

Meanwhile, Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) announced he will not run for Senate.

Washington Post: “In Arizona, an emerging battleground, defeated gubernatorial candidate and former TV newscaster Kari Lake is considering running for the Senate seat held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, according to a person familiar with the discussions who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations candidly.”

“And Blake Masters, the venture capitalist who lost the Senate race to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in November, told The Washington Post he is also ‘seriously’ weighing another bid — setting up a scenario where a candidate who underperformed could again clinch the nomination in the swing state.”

“Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is taking new steps to build a Senate campaign-in-waiting, signing on a pollster, interviewing paid media firms, and pulling in veterans from Sens. John Fetterman, Mark Kelly, and Raphael Warnock’s teams,” Politico reports.