Politico: “Jeb Bush, now through two legs of a three-nation European tour that ends Saturday in Estonia, has thus far managed to accomplish something that many of his GOP rivals have not: He’s traveled abroad, given a speech, met with foreign government leaders, and held two press briefings all without a blunder.”
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194
What Just Happened?
How the Bush Campaign Went Off Track
Washington Post: “In interviews this week, dozens of Bush backers and informed Republicans — most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to comment candidly — described an overly optimistic, even haughty exploratory operation. Strategic errors were exacerbated by unexpected stumbles by the would-be candidate and internal strife within his team, culminating in a staff shake-up this week.”
“The original premise of Bush’s candidacy — that a bold, fast start would scare off potential rivals and help him overcome the burden of his last name — has proved to be misguided.”
Politico: “Though Jeb Bush’s campaign for president had a shakeup before it even officially became a campaign, one aspect of Jeb World remains as clear as ever: Sally Bradshaw is running the show. To the extent there was a shakeup of Bush’s political team this week, it’s Bradshaw who did the shaking, the shot-calling and the tough decision-making.”
Rubio Catches Bush in Florida
A new Saint Leo University survey in Florida shows Sen. Marco Rubio (R) has pulled even with former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) as the top choice of Florida Republicans for president of the United States.
“By several measures, support for Rubio has surged since he officially declared his presidential candidacy earlier this spring, while Bush’s support has plateaued. Presented with a long list of candidates, Bush remains the top choice of Florida Republicans. However, Rubio’s support rose by eight points since a March survey by Saint Leo University, while Bush’s support stayed flat. Rubio also saw an eight-point increase in the number of voters naming him as their second choice. Combining the first and second place votes, Rubio has overtaken Bush. Rubio combines for 53 percent first- and second-choice votes, whereas Bush receives 42 percent.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Ultimately, Russia needs to be a European nation. Everything we do should be to isolate its corrupt leadership.”
— Jeb Bush, quoted by National Journal.
Bush Explains Campaign Shakeup
“In his first comments since Monday’s shakeup, Jeb Bush told reporters here he felt the need to reorganize his team based on ‘the magnitude of the journey,’ not any perceived struggles of his nascent campaign,” Politico reports.
Said Bush: “You start wherever you start, and you end a long way away from where we are today, so I just urge everybody to be a little more patient about this.”
Bush Super PAC Likely to Miss Target
“A super PAC backing former Florida governor Jeb Bush is likely to fall short of collecting $100 million by the end of this month, despite widespread expectations that the group would hit that record-breaking sum, according to people close to the operation,” the Washington Post reports.
“The exact size of the war chest is closely held, but two individuals familiar with internal discussions believe the total that the Right to Rise super PAC will report in mid-July could be substantially lower than the nine figures that senior Republicans have anticipated.”
“That would be a major psychological blow for Bush’s operation, whose fundraising prowess has raised expectations about how much cash it has been amassing. Bush’s schedule for the past five months has been dominated by high-priced fundraisers for the super PAC, helping the group stockpile tens of millions.”
First Read: “There are two ways to read this: One, there is a money problem in Jeb World, which would be a psychological blow to an organization that’s relying on money to paper over a GOP grassroots that hasn’t exactly embraced Jeb. Or two, Team Jeb is trying to lower/reset expectations on a number they know will still be impressive. We’ll get the final answer on the fundraising numbers on or around July 15. “
Bush Acknowledges Campaign Hasn’t Gone Well
First Read: “It’s not extraordinary in presidential politics when a campaign manager gets replaced; it frequently happens, especially during tough times. But what IS extraordinary is bringing in a new manager before the campaign officially begins. And that’s why yesterday’s news that Jeb Bush hired GOP communications strategist Danny Diaz to be his new campaign manager — after previously tapping David Kochel (who was Mitt Romney’s chief Iowa strategist in 2012) to fill the position — is a big deal. It’s a tacit acknowledgement that the last few months for Team Jeb haven’t gone well.”
“If the goal of the Jeb pre-campaign was to create enough of a juggernaut to scare off some potential rivals, it didn’t work. Only Mitt Romney was forced out.”
Bush Prepares Fundraising Blitz
“As Jeb Bush focuses on foreign policy this week during a visit to Europe, his team at home is finalizing a fundraising blitz that will begin as soon as he steps into the 2016 presidential race,” the AP reports.
“Bush will publicly announce his bid for the Republican presidential nomination on Monday, while privately embarking on what his team has dubbed the ’27 in Fifteen’ challenge — asking fundraisers to collect at least $27,000 in donations in the 15 remaining days of the month. Those who do will be awarded certain perks, including an invitation to a two-day July retreat at the Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine.”
Bush Heads to Europe
Jeb Bush “is embarking on a five-day tour of Germany, Poland and Estonia, beginning Tuesday,” NBC News reports.
“Bush’s trip comes as polls show that foreign policy is increasingly a priority for voters, especially among Republican voters. It ranks as a top priority for Republicans just behind the economy in national polls.”
“Bush arguably is one with the most experience among the Republican field in foreign policy, having made 22 visits to 89 countries according to his staff, and he governed a state that relied heavily on international trade – 40 percent of U.S. exports to Latin America pass through Florida. This will be Bush’s first trip to Estonia and Poland and an opportunity for him to look presidential and capable.”
Bush Taps Campaign Manager in Shake Up
“Danny Diaz, a 39-year-old Washington, D.C., native who has worked for the past three Republican presidential nominees, will serve as campaign manager of Jeb Bush’s anticipated presidential campaign,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The job of running day-to-day campaign operations had been expected to go to David Kochel, who will instead serve as chief strategist in early-nominating states, including Iowa, and across the country. Mr. Kochel ran 2012 nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign in Iowa and was recruited by Mr. Bush in January when Mr. Romney was considering getting into the race.”
Quote of the Day
“I didn’t think I was going to be back up here again because frankly, I thought Jeb was just going to suck all the air out of the room, and it just hasn’t happened.”
— Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), quoted by NH1, while visiting New Hampshire.
Bush Struggles More Than Romney with Conservatives
Jeb Bush “may have a lot of advantages as the 2016 race begins – money, name recognition, a network of supporters. But Mr. Bush has a problem with conservatives,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“How bad is it? Compare his standing to that of 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who famously struggled to win over his party’s base. Mr. Romney’s numbers appeared healthier than Mr. Bush’s, around the same point in the races.”
Jeb Bush Moves from Frontrunner to Underdog
Amy Walter: “With each passing day, Jeb Bush looks weaker and weaker. While he has a top notch political team and (reportedly) tons of cash, he is dropping, not, rising in the polls. For a party desperate to win back the White House, Bush is looking more and more like a risky bet.”
“The latest Washington Post/ABC and CNN/ORC polls paint a grim picture of Bush’s general election hopes. In the CNN poll, Bush is the only candidate tested – besides Ted Cruz – that Hillary beats handily. She leads Bush 51 percent to 43 percent.”
“With the all-important caveat that we are light years away from the primaries, Scott Walker is the frontrunner at this point. Where Bush gets no benefit of the doubt, Walker gets that benefit in spades. Republican primary voters love Walker’s story as the blue state Governor who defeated labor and lived to tell about it. At a time when voters are as disgusted with Washington as ever, he can sell himself as an outsider and an executive who gets results.”
Bush Will Announce Bid on June 15
Nearly six months after announcing he would explore a presidential bid, the Miami Herald reports Jeb Bush will officially enter the race June 15.
“The announcement will follow a weeklong trip for Bush to Europe that begins Monday, giving him a close look at foreign policy issues that have been a central focus of the presidential contest so far.”
Rubio Benefits as Some Donors Doubt Bush
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) “is benefiting from pockets of discontent in Jeb Bush’s sprawling money network, winning over donors who believe the 44-year-old freshman senator from Florida offers a more compelling persona and sharper generational contrast against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton,” the Washington Post reports.
“Rubio is working to seize the moment by making an all-out push to lock down financial backers in the coming month — hopscotching the country in a nonstop series of fundraisers that are limiting his presence on the campaign trail. While he faces stiff competition in the money race from Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in particular, Rubio’s in-person courting sessions are starting to pay off. Longtime Bush loyalists and other big-money players on the right have emerged from the meetings raving about his abilities, according to people familiar with private gatherings he has had around the country.”
Bush Sees ‘Rambunctious’ Campaign Ahead
Jeb Bush said the Republican presidential campaign “will be much more bruising for all the candidates — something Bush acknowledged after someone in the sympathetic audience asked him how he would shine among so many rivals,” the Miami Herald reports.
Said Bush: “It’s a rambunctious deal. We have 75 people running, last time I checked. This isn’t Tiddlywinks we’re playing for.”
Quote of the Day
“It’s kind of hard to imagine that my good friend Marco would be critical of his good friend Jeb.”
— Jeb Bush, quoted by the Washington Post, responding to Sen. Marco Rubio’s contention that Republicans should elect younger leaders.
Jeb Bush Struggles to Win Over Brother’s Team
New York Times: “A sampling conducted largely by email of about 120 people who worked for George W. Bush — from cabinet secretaries to foreign policy advisers to advance aides — found about 25 who said they were supporting his younger brother. Fifty others said they were neutral or supporting another candidate, while the rest did not respond, passing up a chance to declare allegiance to the next Bush candidacy.”
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