Political Wire

Bush Has More Campaign Flexibility Than His Rivals

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Although Jeb Bush “is perhaps the least coy of the pre-candidates about his plans to run — and among the most aggressive fundraisers — his announcement may not come for a while,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Because of his support from big donors and the fact that he holds no federal office — unlike Cruz, Paul and Rubio, all Republican senators — the former Florida governor is ideally positioned to take advantage of massive holes that have been poked in campaign finance laws in recent years. So long as he doesn’t say the magic words ‘I’m running,’ Bush contends that he can raise and spend unlimited sums through a so-called super PAC under his control.”

“Instead of assembling an official campaign apparatus, Bush is trailblazing into a new frontier of super PACs. It is a place off-limits to most of his GOP competitors, who are inhibited by conflict-of-interest rules that limit how much money senators and congressmen can solicit and from whom.”

Bush Hasn’t Come Close to Locking Down Nomination

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“Three months into what allies once confidently described as a ‘shock and awe’ drive to overcome his rivals and dominate the Republican presidential field, Jeb Bush’s early campaigning looks like the juggernaut that wasn’t,” the New York Times reports.

“He is grappling with the Republican Party’s prickly and demanding ideological blocs, particularly evangelical leaders and pro-Israel hawks. He is struggling to win over grass-roots activists in Iowa and New Hampshire, states he has visited only a handful of times. And Mr. Bush’s undisputed advantage — the millions of dollars streaming rapidly into his political organization — may not be enough to knock out other contenders.”

Florida Not a Given for Bush

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Adam Smith: “Part of what makes Florida such a challenging state politically is its fast-changing and ever-growing nature. Statewide candidates must constantly introduce themselves. Bush, for instance, won his two gubernatorial races by huge margins — nearly 11 percentage points in 1998 and 13 points in 2002 — but Florida is vastly different now.”

“The Florida Democratic Party still has the voter files from those Bush elections and can pinpoint which voters are still around and which aren’t. Only 28 percent of currently active Florida voters participated in either of Bush’s past two elections and only 13 percent of today’s registered voters are Republicans who voted in those 2002 or 1998 gubernatorial races.”

Bush Records All Private Appearances

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Jeb Bush’s campaign team “has been quietly taping his private appearances in hopes of pushing back on false narratives dished by donors to reporters and to have a record to disprove any misinformation wafting from closed-door events,” National Journal reports.

“The self-taping also represents an acknowledgement that with smart phones and new live-streaming social-media apps like Meerkat and Periscope, nothing is truly off-the-record. It is also, presumably, a way to make that point particularly clear for Bush, who hasn’t run for office in more than a decade.”

Bush Shifts Tone on Indiana Law

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Jeb Bush “appeared to modify his public comments about Indiana’s ‘religious freedom’ law on Wednesday in a closed-door Silicon Valley fund-raiser, telling a small group of potential supporters that a ‘consensus-oriented’ approach would have been better at the outset,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Bush’s comments were strikingly different in tone and in scope from what he said on Monday night in an interview with the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. In that interview he praised Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana for doing the ‘right thing’ and said that the new law was similar to one in Florida and to a law signed by President Bill Clinton in 1993.”

First Read: “The problem for Bush is that all of this only feeds the narrative that conservatives can’t trust him on these types of issues — compared with the rest of the GOP field. It also cuts against the identity he has created for himself — as someone who prefers running a general-election campaign instead of a race to please the base. It’s a tricky place to be in, because it ultimately ends up pleasing no one. “

New Group Will Secretly Funnel Money to Bush

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Jeb Bush “has given his tacit endorsement to a new group that can collect unlimited amounts of money in secret, part of a bold effort by his advisers to create a robust external political operation before he declares his expected White House bid,” the Washington Post reports.

“The nonprofit group, Right to Rise Policy Solutions, was quietly established in Arkansas in February by a friend and former Bush staffer. The group shares the name of two political committees for which Bush has been aggressively raising money — blurring the line that is supposed to separate a campaign from independent groups.”

“While ideological nonprofits have become major players in national politics in recent years, this marks the first time one has been so embedded in the network of a prospective candidate.”

Quote of the Day

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“I’m going to get my economic policy from Milton Friedman and others like that, not from the Pope. And as it relates to social doctrine, I do think where my faith comes into play is most as it relates to the most vulnerable in our society.”

— Jeb Bush, quoted by National Journal, on the extent to which his Catholic faith informs his policy-making.

Bush Keeps Away from Schiavo Case

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“Casting himself as the ‘most conservative governor in Florida’s history,’ Jeb Bush ticks off a record in office that includes tax cuts, vetoes on spending, private-school vouchers and fewer state employees,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“But the likely 2016 presidential candidate rarely, if ever, trumpets one of his most enduring conservative credentials: his yearslong effort to save Terri Schiavo, a severely brain-damaged woman whose husband wanted to remove life support despite her parents’ objections.”

Bush and Walker Offer Very Different Messages

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New York Times: “Mr. Bush, a privileged scion who married a Mexican woman and boasts of being bicultural, reflects his polyglot adopted hometown, Miami, and state. He is telling Republicans, in effect, that they must accept a changing country: that the path to the presidency will be found through appealing to voters who may not look like them, and with a standard-bearer whose state and immediate family resemble tomorrow’s America.”

“Mr. Walker, a small-town minister’s son who met his wife, a Milwaukee native, at a Wisconsin barbecue joint, is a product of one of the most politically and racially polarized regions of the country, metropolitan Milwaukee. He has succeeded by confronting his adversaries and by generating soaring levels of support from his fellow Republicans in a state they have failed to carry in a presidential race for more than three decades. The party’s way forward, by Mr. Walker’s lights, lies in demonstrating toughness in the face of intense opposition from the left and mobilizing those who are already inclined to support conservatism.”

Adelson Upset With Bush Over Baker Comments

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Sheldon Adelson “is said to be incensed” over former Secretary of State James Baker’s comments about Israel “and the lack of pressure put on him by the Jeb Bush team before his address — a significant concern, given that Mr. Adelson has the resources to pour tens of millions of dollars into the Republican presidential primary,” the New York Times reports.

“But the flare-up could thrust Mr. Bush into conflict with some of the most hawkish voices in his party, including some leading Republican donors, and a constituency determined to demonstrate its strength in the primary.”

Jeb Bush’s Nightmare Scenario

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Jeb Bush “is expected to be a formidable contender for the GOP nomination. But there are signs that his biography will lead to struggles in the primary’s early stages. There are signs that a worst-case, crash-and-burn scenario for Bush is more realistic than even his skeptics recognize,” National Journal reports.

Jonathan Bernstein: “If party actors remain split or uncommitted and prefer to wait for tests of electoral strength, it’s easy to imagine Bush finishing fifth or lower in Iowa, failing to rally in New Hampshire, and then finding himself almost a non-factor in South Carolina. One thing’s for sure: Waiting for the Florida primary to come around isn’t going to be a successful nomination strategy.”

Conservatives Seek a Candidate to Counter Bush

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“Fearing that Republicans will ultimately nominate an establishment presidential candidate like Jeb Bush, leaders of the nation’s Christian right have mounted an ambitious effort to coalesce their support behind a single social-conservative contender months before the first primary votes are cast,” the New York Times reports.

“In secret straw polls and exclusive meetings from Iowa to California, the leaders are weighing the relative appeal and liabilities of potential standard-bearers like Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and former Govs. Rick Perry of Texas and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.”

Amy Walter: Consensus conservative in 2016?

Jeb Bush’s Toughest Rival

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Steve Kornacki says “the most interesting potential threat to Jeb isn’t running – yet. Ohio Governor John Kasich, reelected last fall in an historic landslide, was in New Hampshire this week and has been issuing fiery defenses of his conservative credentials. A leading Republican congressman in the pre-W. 1990s, Kasich now sports solid outsider credentials that could appeal to the GOP’s anti-establishment grassroots.”

Bush Had Another Undisclosed Email Account

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“As Florida governor, Jeb Bush used another, previously unreported email address, records show — the newest wrinkle in an evolving debate over public officials’ use of private email accounts,” the AP reports.

“When Bush released thousands of emails from his tenure as Florida’s governor as part of his preparations to run for president next year, he did so from the email account he shared openly, jeb@jeb.org.”

“Those emails also include references to another email address, jeb@gencom.net. Bush said through a spokeswoman that he was unaware of the account, although records showed that people wrote to him there more than 400 times between 1999 and 2004.”

Rivals Try to Turn Bush’s Fundraising Against Him

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Jeb Bush “has stockpiled tens of millions of dollars in the past three months, donors say, raising expectations that he will outgun all of his likely rivals for the Republican nomination,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“But before the former Florida governor announces his haul, possibly in April, opponents are trying to turn his fundraising prowess and political pedigree into liabilities.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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