Political Wire

Will Bernie Sanders Be Kept Off New Hampshire Ballot?

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NPR: “Due to a quirky New Hampshire filing process — and Sanders’s status as an independent rather than a registered Democrat — there are lingering questions about how easy it will be for him file for the primary next year. State law says that presidential candidates must be a registered member of the party whose primary ballot they are trying to get on.”

Pollster Says Clinton Will Lose Iowa and New Hampshire

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GOP pollster Glen Bolger “made a bold prediction” that Hillary Clinton would not win the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary, Roll Call reports.

Said Bolger: “I think that Hillary is going to lose to Bernie Sanders in Iowa, I think she’s going to lose to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. Then Democratic primary voters will go, ‘Oh my God, what are we doing here?'”

Iowa and New Hampshire Fret About Power Loss

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“For nearly a half century, Iowa and New Hampshire have played a pivotal role in American electoral politics. But their top place on the nominating calendar is under threat like never before,” the Boston Globe reports.

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) and Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) “added their voices this week to dozens of political figures who have complained their states’ stature will be undercut by Fox News’ plans to limit the first presidential debate to the top 10 GOP candidates in national polls. The network’s truncated invitation list could do the job usually handled by Iowa’s caucuses and New Hampshire’s primary — winnowing a crowded field.”

“The signs abound that the selection process is changing as candidates shift their strategies to run a national primary campaign, instead of one that runs solely through early nominating states.”

Clinton Lead Cut Dramatically in New Hampshire

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A new Suffolk University poll in New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential race by just 10 points, 41% to 31%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “Most political observers felt that Hillary Clinton’s large early lead among Democratic voters would eventually shrunk a bit over time. But in New Hampshire right now, the lead has shrunk a lot, and this is a much different Democratic primary race than we are seeing in other states so far.”

New Hampshire Is Key to Bush

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Los Angeles Times: “For Jeb Bush, New Hampshire serves as a linchpin of his strategy. Sandwiched between contests in Iowa and South Carolina that draw large numbers of evangelical voters, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary has served as a firewall of sorts for mainstream, center-right candidates such as Bush. The last two Republican nominees — Mitt Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008 — both came in first place here after losing the Iowa caucuses to more socially conservative rivals.”

Bush and Walker Lead in New Hampshire

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A new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll in New Hampshire finds Jeb Bush tied with Scott Walker at 15%, with Rand Paul at 13%, Chris Christie at 10%, and Ted Cruz at 9%.

Bush has slipped “not because GOP voters are sick of the Bush family but because conservatives are roundly rejecting him.”

Huffington Post: Republicans to enter a tight primary race in New Hampshire

New Hampshire Democrats See Clinton Primary Challenge

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“The Democratic Party will have a primary race whether presumptive front-runner Hillary Clinton ultimately decides to enter the race or not, political observers and state Democrats said,” the New Hampshire Union Leader reports.

Said Democratic Party chairman Ray Buckley: “I fully anticipate we’re going to have a very robust primary. It’s going to happen. A challenger to Clinton will emerge. There will be an alternative, and I anticipate a very vibrant primary.”

Josh Green: Elizabeth Warren would be credible threat to Clinton in the primaries

Christie Plans New Hampshire Push

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Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) aides “plan to arrange a series of town-hall meetings for him this year in New Hampshire, anticipating that his direct and sometimes combative style will play well in the state that analysts say is his best chance at victory among the early battlegrounds for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Such town-hall meetings could help his team use Mr. Christie’s strength in a state that has long favored such question-and-answer sessions to take the temperature of presidential candidates. While the Christie team is setting up campaign machinery in all early-voting states, Republican voters in the two others—Iowa and South Carolina—often reward candidates with more conservative profiles.”

The Newark Star Ledger says Christie “gave the first glimpse of what he’d do if Americans elected him to the White House while speaking to New Hampshire Republicans in the presidential battleground state tonight.”

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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