A new Monmouth poll in West Virginia finds Sen. Joe Manchin (D) holds a solid lead over challenger Patrick Morrisey (R), 48% to 39% among all voters.

“Another 4% support Don Blankenship, who is seeking to run as the Constitution Party candidate after losing his bid for the GOP nomination. West Virginia has a “sore loser” law that may prevent him from appearing on the general election ballot. When Blankenship’s supporters are reallocated to their second choice, Manchin maintains a 49% to 42% lead.”

“The race looks very similar using two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Manchin a 49% to 40% lead over Morrisey with Blankenship in the race, and a 50% to 43% lead without. Using a model that includes a turnout surge in areas where Democrats tend to perform more strongly gives a Manchin a 50% to 39% lead when including Blankenship and 51% to 42% lead without the Constitution Party candidate.”

“West Virginia coal baron and former prisoner Don Blankenship announced on Monday that he plans to launch a long-shot third-party Senate bid after finishing a distant third in this month’s Republican primary,” Politico reports.

“Blankenship said he would run in the general election as the Constitution Party nominee. But he would need to overcome a ‘sore loser’ law in West Virginia that prevents failed candidates in a main-party primary from refiling to run in the general election under another party’s banner.”

“Blankenship said he’s prepared to challenge that law in court if needed.”

A new WPA Intelligence poll in West Virginia shows Pat Morrisey (R) leading Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44% with 11% undecided.

Key finding: 51% said it was “time for a new person to be in the U.S. Senate,” 37% said Manchin “deserves reelection,” and 13% refused to answer.

“President Trump connected by phone on Wednesday with Don Blankenship, the former coal baron and ex-con whose Senate candidacy he helped sink,” Politico reports.

“Trump and Blankenship spoke briefly… The conversation was described as straightforward, polite and cordial, with the president calling to exchange pleasantries and offer his congratulations on waging the campaign.”

A defiant Don Blankenship (R) “shrugged off President Trump’s last-minute plea for Republican primary voters to reject his insurgent Senate candidacy — and flatly predicted it would fail to halt his momentum,” Politico reports.

“On the final day of the dramatic West Virginia campaign, the coal baron and ex-prisoner seemed unbothered by the president’s foray into the contest, arguing that voters would see through it as the latest ploy in an establishment-led effort aimed at keeping him from winning the nomination.”

Playbook: “The obvious question here is what does Mitch McConnell, the NRSC and the constellation of big-money outside groups that support Senate Republicans do if Blankenship wins. It’s very difficult to see McConnell supporting Blankenship after he called the majority leader’s wife’s family ‘China people,’ and suggested the Kentucky Republican has mixed allegiances because of Elaine Chao’s family’s heritage. But knocking Sen. Joe Manchin out of the Senate has always been part of the GOP plan to keeping — or expanding — their majority in the Senate. “

“He recommended that people vote for a guy that was basically accused of pedophilia in Alabama.”

— West Virginia U.S. Senate candidate Don Blankenship (R), quoted by NBC News, dismissing President Trump urging people to vote against him.

Weekly Standard: “Republicans are panicking as internal polls show Don Blankenship, a coal baron who spent time in jail for a mining disaster that killed 29 workers, surging into the lead in the West Virginia Senate GOP primary over Attorney General Patrick Morrissey and Congressman Evan Jenkins.”

“The results of an internal campaign poll conducted for one rival Senate campaign on Saturday and Sunday were: Blankenship 31%, Jenkins 28%, Morrissey 27%.”

“The results of another internal poll conducted Friday and Saturday were: Blankenship 28%, Morrissey 27%, Jenkins 14%. Two weeks earlier, the same rival campaign found Blankenship at 14%, Morrissey at 29%, and Jenkins at 26%.”

For members: Should We Believe These Internal Polls?

President Trump urged West Virginia voters in a tweet to reject Don Blankenship’s Senate bid, warning that — like Roy Moore in Alabama — he could cost the party a Senate seat.

Said Trump: “To the great people of West Virginia we have, together, a really great chance to keep making a big difference. Problem is, Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your State…No way! Remember Alabama. Vote Rep. Jenkins or A.G. Morrisey!”

Blankenship responded: “Tomorrow, West Virginia will send the swamp a message—no one, and I mean no one, will tell us how to vote. As some have said, I am Trumpier than Trump and this morning proves it.”

A GOP source familiar with the internal polling in the West Virginia U.S. Senate race tells Jonathan Swan:

“At the beginning of last week, the internals showed a 2-man race between Jenkins and Morrisey, with Morrisey having a slight edge and Blankenship down in the teens. However, following a week centered on media coverage of Blankenship’s feud with ‘cocaine Mitch’ and a bombardment of attack ads against Jenkins over the airwaves, the same poll now shows Blankenship surging with a slight lead over Morrisey, and Jenkins now down in the teens.”