A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Rep. Edward Markey (D) leading Gabriel Gomez (R) by 17 points in the race for U.S. Senate, 52% to 35%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “I’m not saying the race won’t be close or it won’t get closer, or that Markey or somebody won’t gaffe. But in terms of the starting point, this isn’t a handful-of-points race.”

John Avlon: “From the start of this unlikely campaign, Sanford has been easy to underestimate. His well-chronicled scandal, which brought ‘hiking the Appalachian Trail‘ into the lexicon, obscured his ability to connect with low-country voters. There’s a reason Sanford has never lost an election, and during the crowded GOP primaries I was struck by the way local voters called him ‘Mark’ rather than ‘Governor’ — and his evident mastery of policy details helped him stand out from the pack. For all the easy accusations of hypocrisy, Sanford had never been a social conservative Bible-thumper as much as strident fiscal conservative who was railing against the deficit and debt while arguing for entitlement reform back in the 1990s.”

The Week: “South Carolina voters, it seems, are almost French in their willingness to forgive an extramarital affair.”

Jill Lawrence
says Terry McAuliffe (D) has a potential problem with women voters even though he’s running against anti-abortion candidate Ken Cuccinelli (R) for Virginia governor.

Passages in McAuliffe’s book include him “ditching his wife Dorothy
while she was in labor” but the “more problematic anecdote to me is one that
involves the birth of another baby, in this case a newborn son whom
McAuliffe left in the car with Dorothy on the way home from the hospital
while he spent 15 minutes at a fundraiser. She was in tears, he writes.
How the heck did he think women would react to that?”

BuzzFeed looks at nine passages from McAuliffe’s book that might make voters cringe.

A new NBC News/Marist poll in Virginia finds Ken Cuccinelli (R) leading Terry McAuliffe (D) in the race for governor among likely voters, 45% to 42%.

Among all voters, McAuliffe holds a small lead, 43% to 41%.

First Read: “The good news for McAuliffe is that he has plenty of room to grow (44%
of voters say they’re unsure/never heard of him, compared with 32% who
say that about Cuccinelli). And the Republican Party is a potential drag
for Cuccinelli: The GOP has a 37%-53% fav/unfav rating in the state,
versus the Democratic Party’s 44%-46% score. Yet so far, before any
negative advertising begins, the poll doesn’t show the party dragging
Cuccinelli down — his fav/unfav is 42%-27%.”

A new NBC News/Marist poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Chris Christie (R) running away in his re-election bid with a 32 point lead over challenger Barbara Buono, 60% to 28%.

First Read: “The poll also explains why Christie is disagreeing with his national
party some of the time. The GOP’s fav/unfav in the survey is 34%-59%,
versus the Democratic Party’s 50%- 43% score.”

“I want to acknowledge a God not just of second chances. But a God of third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth chances because that is the reality of our shared humanity.”

— Rep.-elect Mark Sanford (R-SC), quoted by The State, in his special election victory speech last night.

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R), looking for redemption after his political career was sidelined by scandal, easily won the special election for the congressional seat he once held for three terms, the AP reports.

Joshua Green says tonight’s special election result in South Carolina isn’t that important.

“So while today’s special election offers plenty of entertainment, it has about as much political import as any other reality TV show where the participants mostly embarrass themselves.”

“In the dark arts of political campaigns known as oppo research, the most basic tools of the trade include campaign finance reports, arrest records, lawsuits, old newspaper clips,” the Daily Beast reports.

“In Virginia, though, it seems as if all it takes to embarrass the opposing campaign is a working library card.”

“Over the past week, Republican operatives have been barely able to contain their glee as they email out select passages from What a Party!: My Life Among Democrats, Presidents, Candidates, Donors, Activists, Alligators, And Other Wild Animals, the memoir by Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, top fundraiser and ally of Bill and Hillary Clinton, and now the Democratic candidate for governor of Virginia.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) “secretly underwent lap-band stomach surgery to aggressively slim down for the sake of his wife and kids,” he revealed to the New York Post.

Said Christie: “I’ve struggled with this issue for 20 years. For me, this is about turning 50 and looking at my children and wanting to be there for them.”

“He declined to say how much he lost, but sources said he has already shed nearly 40 pounds.”

First Read: “Remember, Christie had previously said that his health was prettty good… In fact, he called himself one of the healthiest fat guys in the
country. So if this is for health reasons, then he wasn’t totally
forthright before. For what it’s worth, we know the issue of his weight
has been discussed with him by supporters and consultants as a political
issue, and that it’s something he needed to deal with in some form if
he ever did decide to run for national office.”

“Voters in South Carolina’s first congressional district head to the polls on Tuesday to decide whether to offer former Gov. Mark Sanford a chance at political redemption, or instead send the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert to Congress,” NBC News reports.

Roll Call reports that just a week ago, political operatives were preparing Mark Sanford’s political obituary. “But internal and public polls showed the race closing — and suddenly his return to the Palmetto State’s congressional delegation has become more than a possibility.”

Stu Rothenberg: “When Sanford’s ex-wife’s complained that he entered her home, many observers believed that it was the beginning of the end for the former governor, even given the Republican nature of the district. But Sanford did not throw in the towel, and Democrats are nervous about whether his efforts during the campaign’s final weeks to make the race into a referendum on Colbert Busch, and on her ties to organized labor, has turned the race toward the Republican.”

The Week : “The scandal-plagued Sanford is suddenly ahead in his race against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch. That’s not necessarily good news for the GOP.”

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford’s ex-wife “wants a judge to ban cameras and recording equipment from the courtroom during a hearing on trespass allegations this week,” The State reports.

“Jenny Sanford filed a trespassing complaint against her former husband for entering her Sullivan’s Island home in February to watch part of the Super Bowl with their youngest son when she wasn’t at home.”

“The hearing Thursday comes two days after voters select Republican Mark Sanford or Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in the election for a vacant seat in the state’s 1st Congressional District.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina’s 1st congressional district finds a race that’s too close to call, with Mark Sanford (R) edging Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D), 47% to 46%.

Key finding: The one point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from a similar poll two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by nine points at 50% to 41%.

New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Barbara Buono’s (D) campaign war chest “is so skimpy she may not generate enough contributions to secure all of her public matching funds for the primary or general election,” the Newark Star Ledger reports.

A new Washington Post poll in Virginia finds Ken Cuccinelli (R) has an early lead over Terry McAuliffe (D) in their race for governor, 46% to 41% among all voters and 51% to 41% among those voters certain to cast a ballot.

However, the poll also found that barely 10% say they are following the campaign “very closely” and that nearly half of the electorate says they’re either undecided or could change their minds.

An Emerson College Polling Institute survey in Massachusetts finds Rep. Ed Markey (D) with a six-point lead over Gabriel Gomez (R) in the special election race for U.S. Senate, 42% to 36%.