A new Red Racing Horses/PMI (R) poll in South Carolina’s 1st congressional district finds Mark Sanford (R) and Elizabdeth Colbert Busch (D) tied at 46% among likely voters with another 7% undecided.
The State notes Red Racing Horses says it is a “collaborative community of politics and
election enthusiasts run by six unnamed volunteers and that polls are
paid with reader donations.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Massachusetts finds the U.S. Senate special election is a surprisingly close race, with Rep. Ed Markey (D) leading Gabriel Gomez (R) by just four points, 44% to 40%.
Key findings: “Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he’s at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He’s at 31/50 with independents.”
In the first sign that Democrats “are preparing to pull out the party’s big financial guns” for U.S. Senate nominee Ed Markey (D-MA), Michelle Obama “is scheduled to appear at a Boston fund-raiser for the Malden congressman later this month, an event that can collect up to $37,600 from an individual donor,” the Boston Globe reports.
President Obama is also likely “to make an appearance in Massachusetts for Markey before the June 25 election if the campaign requests his help.”
First Read notes that just after Terry McAuliffe (D) released a “warm and fuzzy TV ad showing him, among other things, in the delivery room when one of his children was born” came a Buzzfeed bombshell:
“McAuliffe also wrote about the birth of his children in his 2007 book What A Party, noting on one instance he left his wife at the hospital to attend a party for Washington Post reporter Lloyd Grove before the birth of his daughter Sarah.”
Stu Rothenberg: “Democrats won’t allow themselves to be surprised the way they were when Scott P. Brown beat Martha Coakley in the last Senate special election, in early 2010, and the national party’s image can’t do anything but hurt Gomez’s already uphill chances. But there is no reason to rush to judgment on this race, at least for a couple of weeks, and it’s worth watching to see how it unfolds. Obviously, Markey begins as the clear favorite.”
“A website connecting users looking for casual, and often extramarital,
affairs is making Mark Sanford the face of their new marketing campaign,
and it could not come at a worst time for the former governor,” WCSC-TV reports.
The State has this exchange from last night’s debate in South Carolina’s first congressional district:
Elizabeth Colbert Busch: “When we talk about fiscal spending and we talk about
protecting the taxpayers, it doesn’t mean you take that money we saved
and leave the country for a personal purpose.”
Moderator John Avlon: “She went there, Gov. Sanford.”
Mark Sanford: “I couldn’t hear what she said. Repeat it, I didn’t hear it.”
Colbert Busch: “Answer the question.”
Sanford: “What was the question?”
Voters head to the polls in Massachusetts for the special election Senate primary today with a light turnout expected.
Boston Globe: “Massachusetts Secretary of State William F. Galvin today predicted an overall lower turnout for Tuesday’s special US Senate primary election than in the same contest in 2009. Galvin said he expected about 550,000 Democratic ballots would be cast Tuesday in the two-person contest, down from the 669,000 in the 2009 US Senate special primary election. On the Republican side, he said he predicts about 200,000 people will cast primary ballots in the three-person race, up from 165,000 in 2009.”
Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.
Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) portrayed Mark Sanford (R) “as a dishonest job-killer who voted against the dredging of the Charleston port during a debate Monday, while Sanford characterized her as a wishy-washy union-backer who relies on special interest money from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and other national Democrats,” The State reports.
Politico: “And so it went on one issue after another — from jobs and spending to Obamacare and gun control — in a 75-minute slugfest ahead of next week’s battle for a vacant South Carolina congressional seat.”
“It was their sole one-on-one encounter of the general election — and Colbert Busch, who is leading in polls, was so aggressive that Sanford at times looked like he didn’t know what hit him.”
A new Suffolk Poll finds Rep. Edward Markey (D-MA) is crushing Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA) in three key Democratic bellwethers.
Said pollster David Paleologos: “Despite recent polling showing this race close and perceptions that the momentum has moved to Lynch following the last two debates, these findings point out the opposite – that Ed Markey has a distinct advantage as the primary approaches. Voter turnout ultimately will determine the outcome. However, given what we know now, Lynch would have to carry his home district by an unprecedented margin and also compete aggressively in Markey’s home district to offset Markey’s distinct advantage.”
Most South Carolina political observers still see former Gov. Mark Sanford (R) as the special election favorite over Elizabeth Colbert Busch, despite a poll showing the former governor trailing by nine points, The State reports.
Harry Enten: “Over the past ten years, there have been 30 non-candidate/party sponsored polls conducted in the final two weeks before 18 off-cycle special congressional elections… 27 out of 30 times, the candidate leading in the poll won most of the votes in the special election. In 26 of the 30 special election surveys, the polling error was less than 9pt – Colbert Busch’s lead. The polls’ average error was only 4pt, and the median even lower, at 3pt. These margins leave little room for Sanford. He would need an error of at least 9pt, which has happened only 13% of the time. He would also need that error to be in his favor, which means he’s looking at a 7% likelihood. That’s not outside the realm of possibility, but it’s a long shot.”
While too much is possibly known about former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R), John Fund notes that’s not a problem for his special election challenger, Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D), who remains a mystery.
“The local and national media haven’t delved into Colbert Busch beyond her platitudes, and so far she’s avoided being tagged with any liberal labels. Her success at flying under the radar may serve as a model for other Democratic candidates in 2014. She plans to participate in only one debate during three months of campaigning. Some 500 of her pre-campaign tweets have been airbrushed away but thanks to the nonpartisan Sunlight Foundation have been returned to the public record.”
The New York Times observes that almost no issues are being discussed in the special election between Mark Sanford (R) and Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) in South Carolina’s 1st congressional district.
“One has to scratch hard to get through the divorces and lovers, the tearful odes to Mama, the exploitation of celebrity and the Sharks-versus-Jets nature of the political parties to find out what the candidates propose to do if they win a special election on May 7 to succeed Representative Tim Scott, a Republican who was appointed to the Senate.”
Virginia gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli (R) received more gifts from dietary supplement company Star Scientific than he had previously reported, the Fredricksburg News reports.
“Cuccinelli revealed three trips and two vacations, spread over the past five years, that he says he forgot to list on his annual financial disclosure statements.”
A new Survey USA poll in Los Angeles finds Wendy Greuel has surged into a small lead over Eric Garcetti, 45% to 42%.
Stu Rothenberg looks at Mark Sanford’s flailing comeback attempt in South Carolina and concludes, “Republicans are on quite a streak when it comes to throwing
away elections.”
“This tossup contest tilts toward the Democrat.
If Colbert Busch wins the seat next month, it won’t be because most
voters wanted her to represent them in Congress. It will be because many
voters — Republican voters — concluded that Sanford was unacceptable.”
Mark Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
Charleston City Paper: “Acting as a stand-in, Sanford says, for his Democratic opponent Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the former governor peppered posterboard Pelosi with questions ranging from unions, to the stimulus, to the federal budget.”
“I’m not going to let that tool go unused.”
— Anthony Weiner, quoted by the New York Observer, on why he’s using Twitter again despite his rocky history with the social media network.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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