“A House special election primary in Cleveland tomorrow is shaping up as a proxy war over the direction of the Democratic Party, with the top two candidates drawing millions in donations as prominent figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. James Clyburn line up on opposing sides,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
How Susan Wright’s Campaign Knew She Would Lose
Texas Tribune: “Susan Wright’s campaign had reasons to feel good Tuesday morning, coming off a tele-rally with former President Donald Trump the night before and armed with internal polling showing she had a comfortable lead over her fellow Republican opponent. But anxiety set in as the day went on and her campaign saw higher-than-expected turnout. Then, a couple hours before polls closed, her consultant, Matt Langston, got a call.”
“It was from a campaign worker at a polling place, and they said the kinds of voters who were showing up had ‘definitely changed.’ How do you know that? Langston asked.”
Said the worker: “Because they’re all wearing masks.”
Gavin Newsom Tries to Nationalize Recall Race
If California Gov. Gavin Newsom is recalled, he predicts the effects would be felt “all across the country” for “many, many years,” arguing that it could boost Republican chances in the 2022 midterms, the Sacramento Bee reports.
Said Newsom: “If this was a successful recall, I think it would have profound consequences nationwide, and go to not just politics, but to policy and policymaking.”
Trump Faces Another Primary Test In Ohio
CNN: “After the Trump-backed candidate in Texas’ 6th Congressional district runoff election lost this week, the pressure is now on the former President to prove his endorsement — one of his most powerful tools within the Republican Party — still holds significant sway in GOP primaries.”
“Trump endorsed coal lobbyist Mike Carey in the special election for Ohio’s 15th Congressional District in early June, throwing his weight behind a political novice in a race against a host of other Republicans, including multiple local elected officials. The Republican primary to replace former Rep. Steve Stivers, who left Congress earlier this year to lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, is Tuesday.”
RNC Builds Army of Field Staffers In Virginia
Politico: “National Republicans are making a big investment in the Virginia governor’s race, an indication that the GOP sees an opportunity in a state that many in the party had written off until recently. The Republican National Committee is dispatching over 100 field staffers to the state, nearly doubling the size of its program in Virginia’s 2017 race for governor… The organization is also opening 13 offices across the state.”
Unusual Timing of Recall Is Wildcard for Gavin Newsom
FiveThirtyEight: “After the recall looked uncompetitive for months, evidence has emerged that the race is tightening.”
“Who casts a ballot in this unusually timed election could be pivotal. The UC Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll underscored why: Among registered voters, Republicans were far more likely to say they’d vote than Democrats or independents.”
“Irregularly timed elections, like a gubernatorial recall held in September of an odd year, can produce unexpected results and lopsided electorates.”
Texas Loss Alarms Trump Advisers
Politico: “Susan Wright’s loss Tuesday night sent shockwaves through the former president’s inner circle. Many privately concede the pressure is on them to win another special election next week in Ohio.”
“More broadly, losses could undermine his standing in the Republican Party, where his popularity and influence has protected Trump’s relevance even as a former president barred from his social media megaphones. Some in the former president’s orbit worry that he’s been too prolific in endorsing candidates running in contested primaries.”
Roll Call: What the loss by Trump’s favorite in an all-GOP Texas runoff means.
Team Trump Blames Conservative for Loser Endorsement
“Donald Trump’s advisers are angry at David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth, for persuading the former president to endorse a losing candidate in the special election for Texas’ 6th District,” Axios reports.
Trump’s Candidate Loses In Texas Special Election
Jake Ellzey (R) defeated Susan Wright (R) in a special runoff in Texas’s 6th Congressional District, dealing a blow to former President Trump, who had backed Wright in the race, the Dallas Morning News reports.
Trump endorsed Wright over the objections of several major Texas Republicans, including former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R).
Wright was also endorsed by the Texas Republican Party, “a rare occurrence in a contest that featured other Republicans.”
Texas Special Election to Test Trump’s Influence
“A special election in Texas on Tuesday is expected to test the power of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a runoff between two Republicans,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Mr. Trump has backed Susan Wright, the widow of the late GOP Rep. Ron Wright, who died in February at the start of his second House term after battling Covid-19 and cancer. She is squaring off against state Rep. Jake Ellzey, a fellow Republican and former Navy fighter pilot, after no Democrats advanced from the crowded jungle primary in May.”
Likely Recall Voters Pose Challenge for Gavin Newsom
A new UC-Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll shows likely voters opposing a recall of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) by 50% to 47%.
However, when all registered voters are polled, the margin opposing the recall expands to 51% to 36%.
Virginia Will Test If ‘Critical Race Theory’ Moves Voters
Wall Street Journal: “Some voters interviewed in Virginia, including suburban white women who were important to Democrats’ improved performance here and in other states that President Biden carried, said they felt national conversations about race and equity were divisive and often cast all white people in a negative light. Others were concerned that their children would come home from school believing that their parents are racist.”
“Other Virginia voters said Glenn Youngkin’s focus on excoriating critical race theory is impeding changes that need to be made by schools and businesses to address racial inequality… GOP strategists acknowledge that it is unclear whether opposition to critical race theory appeals to voters they need to win back.”
Glenn Youngkin Won’t Fill Out NRA Survey
Richmond Times-Dispatch: “Youngkin has so far declined to complete a candidate questionnaire issued by the advocacy group, which asks candidates questions on topics like banning assault weapons and limiting handgun purchases. Traditionally, the survey has been considered part of the NRA’s endorsement process, which, among other things, includes promotion among its grassroots network.”
“Youngkin frequently talks about his support for the Second Amendment during campaign stops, and during an April appearance he described himself as a ‘lifetime member of the NRA.’”
Why Top Democrats Are Listening to Eric Adams
New York Times: “Eric Adams, for his part, is seizing the mayoral bully pulpit, moving to cement a national reputation as a Democrat who speaks with uncommon authority about both public safety and police reform… In some ways, it is a difficult playbook to replicate. Mr. Adams, who will be New York’s second Black mayor if he wins in November, as expected, grew up in poverty and says he was beaten by police officers before joining the force himself…”
“But some party officials and lawmakers also say that Mr. Adams offers a template for how to discuss matters of crime and justice, urgent issues for Democratic candidates across the country as the early contours of the 2022 midterm campaigns take shape… Whether party leaders are ultimately comfortable with Mr. Adams as a national standard-bearer will hinge on how he governs.”
Trump’s PAC Makes Last Minute Ad Buy In Special Election
“Susan Wright’s campaign consultants are confident that she’s well ahead of state Rep. Jake Ellzey in North Texas’ District 6 runoff for Congress,” the Dallas Morning News reports.
“But in advance of Tuesday’s election, Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again Action PAC has dropped a last-minute, $100,000 campaign ad buy to help secure victory for Wright.”
Quote of the Day
“I ran against Donald Trump in Virginia and so is Terry. And I whipped Donald Trump in Virginia and so will Terry.”
— President Biden, while campaigning for Terry McAuliffe in Virginia.
Californians Split on Recalling Gavin Newsom
A new Emerson College poll in California shows 48% of voters want to keep Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) while 43% would vote to recall him.
Another 9% are still undecided.
Lunch with Eric Adams
Bret Stephens on New York City mayoral candidate Eric Adams (D):
“Listening to Adams hold forth like this for an hour is an enjoyable, even delightful experience, because it’s so refreshingly free of ideological cant. If Adams can govern as he campaigned, he’ll be remembered as the mayor who saved New York from walking itself off a ledge. It probably won’t be the last, much less the highest, office he’ll hold.”
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