Politico: “Amid increasing scrutiny over his treatment of women and calls for his withdrawal from the race, California Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder is shaking up his campaign team and hired a new campaign manager.”
Newsom Could Be Replaced by Candidate with Fewer Votes
“For weeks, legal scholars have debated whether the recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom could be found unconstitutional if Newsom failed to realize a “no recall” majority of the ballots cast and was ousted by a candidate who received fewer votes than he did,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“Although it’s impossible to predict how courts will rule, many experts say the current recall process has long survived legal challenges, and probably would again, even if a fringe candidate won on Sept. 14 and became governor with a minority of overall votes.”
Political Environment Moves Towards the GOP
Harry Enten: “When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.”
Kamala Harris to Campaign for Gavin Newsom
Politico: “A visit by Harris could also help rally California Democrats to fill out their ballots, particularly the critical Democratic voting bloc of women of color. While Harris’ poll numbers have slipped in recent months, she retains deep support in the Bay Area, where she launched her political career as a prosecutor.”
McAuliffe Leads Youngkin for Virginia Governor
A new poll from Roanoke College gives former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) a 46% to 38% lead over Glenn Youngkin (R).
Another poll from Virginia Commonwealth University gives McAuliffe a 40% to 37% lead over Youngkin.
GOP Candidate Waved Gun at Ex-Girlfriend
Politico: “Alexandra Datig, the former fiancee and longtime radio producer for California GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, says she broke off an 18-month engagement with the conservative talk show host in 2015 after he waved a gun at her while high on marijuana.”
Newsom Shifts to Stark Tone
“California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is using increasingly stark language as he campaigns in the final month of a tight recall election, calling it ‘a matter of life or death’ that voters keep him in office and he is increasingly targeting a single Republican candidate: talk show host Larry Elder,” CBS San Francisco reports.
Republicans Flip First State Legislative Seat of Biden Era
“A Republican investment analyst on Tuesday won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Connecticut state Senate, the first state legislative seat to flip parties in the seven months since President Biden took office,” The Hill reports.
GOP Candidate Served with Subpoena During Debate
John Cox (R), who is challenging California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in the upcoming state recall election, was served with a subpoena while onstage during a debate Tuesday, CNN reports.
Phil Murphy Up Big In New Jersey
A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Phil Murphy (D) with a big lead over challenger Jack Ciattarelli (R), 52% to 36%.
California Recall Is Very Close
The FiveThirtyEight polling average in California shows Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) barely surviving the recall effort, 48.8% to 47.6%.
Newsom Holds Slight Lead in Recall Race
A new CBS News/YouGov poll finds that 52% of likely California voters will vote “no” on recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), with 48% voting “yes” to recall.
California Recall Campaign Hits High Gear
Los Angeles Times: “With voters beginning to receive ballots and election day less than a month away, California’s historic recall campaign kicked into high gear with Gov. Gavin Newsom rallying the crucial labor and Latino vote and his Republican challengers stepping up their attacks.”
“The ground campaign is expected to be crucial in the coming weeks, with Democrats acknowledging they need a big turnout in the special election to blunt motivated Republicans.”
Newsom Kicks Off Anti-Recall Campaign
San Francisco Chronicle: “With ballots already arriving in the mail… Newsom said that the campaign had already invested $6.5 million in the largest get-out-the-vote effort ‘that’s ever been advanced in the state’s history.’”
“Newsom said the campaign has sent 17 million text messages reminding voters of the recall, and has 5,200 volunteers in the field. It is ramping up door-to-door canvassing and phone banking along with the state’s largest labor unions and other left-leaning organizations.”
Write-In Candidate Leads for Buffalo Mayor
A new WIVB/Emerson College poll finds that if the Buffalo mayoral election was held today, a majority of likely voters say they would vote for incumbent mayor Byron Brown over Democratic nominee India Walton, 50% to 40%.
Brown is running as a write-in candidate after losing the June primary election to Walton in a shocking upset.
However, Walton will be the only candidate actually listed on the ballot on Nov. 2.
McAuliffe Has Small Lead In Virginia
A new Co/efficient poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) just leading Glenn Youngkin (R) in the race for governor among likely voters, 47% to 45%.
Nikki Fried Has Edge Over Charlie Crist In Florida Primary
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida’s Democratic primary for governor shows Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) with a small lead over Rep. Charlie Crist (D), 36% to 33% with 30% still undecided.
Youngkin Ducks Yet Another Debate
Virginia gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin (R) failed to respond to a debate invitation by Norfolk State University, which former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) had already accepted, the Virginia Scope reports.
Youngkin has refused multiple debate invitations, leaving only two potential debates between the two candidates.
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