Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192
November Surprises
A new Fontas/CODA poll in New York City finds fully 50% of likely Democratic voters are undecided in the mayoral primary.
Said pollster George Fontas to the New York Times: “There is no front-runner. It’s an open race. We have no idea what’s going to happen in the next three months, and if history shows us anything, it’s that three months is an eternity in a New York City election.”
Politico: “Tom Steyer is polling the California recall. And the billionaire environmental activist and erstwhile presidential hopeful has included his own name among the list of possible contenders to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.”
Louisiana State Senators Troy Carter (D) and Karen Carter Peterson (D) will advance to an April 24 runoff that will determine who will replace former Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), who is now a senior advisor to President Biden, the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Carter and Ms. Peterson are both veteran politicians and have roots in the competing, and fractious, Black political factions of New Orleans. Both have also run for this seat before — both of them in 2006, and Mr. Carter again in 2008 — without success.”
“Julia Letlow (R) won a special election outright Saturday to represent the 5th Congressional District and will succeed her husband Luke, who captured the seat in December only to die of COVID three weeks later,” the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.
Politico: “Her election brings the number of Republican women in Congress to 31 — a stunning turnaround from the end of last cycle, when there were just 13.”
“The handful of gubernatorial contests and special elections throughout 2021 could be the first litmus test of post-Trump politics during the Biden era,” Axios reports.
“2021’s slate of contests begins this weekend. Two special elections take place on Saturday in Louisiana. The elections are to replace Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R), who passed away last year due to COVID-19, and Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), who joined the administration as a Biden senior adviser.”
“The first competitive special congressional election of the Biden era is most likely heading to a runoff next month, but the battle lines are already drawn ahead of the initial balloting on Saturday in the race to succeed former Rep. Cedric Richmond of Louisiana,” the New York Times reports.
“At the center of the debate: which of two New Orleans Democrats positioned to face off in April can better leverage their connections to lift a South Louisiana district hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.”
FiveThirtyEight: “Always a state that marches to its own beat, Louisiana holds elections a little differently than most (as the Saturday election date might imply): Rather than pitting a Republican against a Democrat, the two elections are what’s known as jungle primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same ballot. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on April 24.”
“So the big questions going into Saturday’s elections are which wing of the Democratic Party will come out on top in the 2nd — and whether a second round of voting will even be necessary in the 5th.”
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (R) announced that the special election for the House seat being vacated by HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge will be held on Nov. 2, 2021, with the primary being held on Aug. 3, 2021.
“With less than two months to go, nearly half of voters have not chosen a candidate in the upcoming special election in Texas’ 6th District,” according to new polling obtained by Inside Elections.
“The March 9-12 survey by Victoria Research found Republican Susan Wright, the widow of the late GOP Rep. Ron Wright, leading the field with 21%, followed by Sanchez with 17%. Republican state Rep. Jake Ellzey garnered 8%; Democrats Lydia Bean (a 2020 state House nominee and former professor at Baylor) and Shawn Lassiter (a nonprofit leader and former teacher) took 5% and 3%, respectively.”
“Texas conducts special elections via jungle primary, meaning that all candidates — there are 23 of them in this race — will appear together on the ballot. If no candidate wins a majority, then the top two best-performing candidates, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.”
“Supporters of the recall targeting California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday they submitted 2,117,730 signatures by the day’s deadline, a number that appears to comfortably exceed the required threshold even if some are invalid,” Politico reports.
“Newsom himself acknowledged Tuesday that the recall will likely qualify, and he has already assembled a team that will mount his defense in what’s expected to be the nation’s biggest election in 2021. Democrats could raise well over $100 million to defend the governor’s seat in one of the bluest states in the country.”
Politico: “A year after Floyd’s death ignited racial justice protests all over the country, police reform is shaping the mayoral contests in Minneapolis, New York City, Boston, Atlanta, Detroit and Seattle.”
“All the cities except New York hold nonpartisan elections, and all are run by Democrats. They all could serve as political barometers ahead of the 2022 congressional midterms, coming during a year in which few states are holding major elections.”
Former Rep. Doug Ose (R-CA) plans to run against Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in the event of a recall election, the Sacramento Bee reports.
Said Ose: “I’ve lived in this state all my life, and I’ve never seen it in such a state of disarray. We don’t know if our schools are open, we don’t know where to get a shot, we don’t know if our businesses are open, we don’t even know if we can go back to work.”
Former President Trump endorsed the widow of Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA), who died in December after being hospitalized with COVID-19, less than two weeks before a special election decides who wins the seat, The Hill reports.
“Just moments before the filing deadline, a 6-foot-7-inch former pro wrestler from Las Vegas unexpectedly appeared at the Texas secretary of state’s office to file for a vacant congressional seat,” Politico reports.
“That candidate, Dan Rodimer, is sending shock waves through the race to replace the late Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX) — the first competitive special election since former President Donald Trump left office and an important suburban bellwether.”
“Rodimer arrived in Austin late Wednesday afternoon, telling people he’d been encouraged to run by Cruz and members of Trump’s family.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates Virginia’s open-seat gubernatorial race starts as Leans Democratic, with former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) holding a significant edge to be his party’s nominee.
New Jersey’s gubernatorial race starts as Likely Democratic with Gov. Phil Murphy (D) heavily favored to win re-election.
Former Trump aide Katrina Pierson announced she will not run for an open House seat in Texas after she laid the groundwork for a bid.
Stephen Wolf has a good run-down of the most important state Supreme Court elections and scheduled appointments happening this cycle.
“Progressives have the chance to flip Ohio’s Supreme Court, gain a more solid majority in Montana, and make inroads that could set them up to flip conservative-heavy courts in Georgia, Texas, and Virginia later this decade. Meanwhile, Republicans could take control of Democratic-leaning courts in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and North Carolina.”
Katrina Pierson (R), a Tea Party activist who served as a spokesperson for Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign and as top adviser on his failed re-election bid, is planning to file to run for the U.S. House seat left vacant by the late Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX), who succumbed to the coronavirus earlier this year, The Hill reports.
Pierson is expected to receive Trump’s backing when she enters the race.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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