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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Newsom Gets High Marks Headed Into Recall

April 29, 2021 · 10:34 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “Recall proponents have made a simple pitch: The Democratic governor’s pandemic mismanagement has devastated California’s economy and failed schoolchildren.”

“But a new statewide poll suggests those two pillars of anti-Newsom sentiment aren’t as sturdy as his foes think. The Public Policy Institute of California found 59 percent of likely voters approve of how Newsom has managed school reopening — and 59 percent approve how he has handled jobs and the economy.

“That figure is a few points higher than the share of likely voters who told PPIC in March they would vote to keep Newsom in office.”

2021 Campaign

Member feature

How California Could Elect a Republican Governor

April 27, 2021 · 9:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Unless the courts intervene, a recall election for California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will be scheduled for later this year. And even though California is a blue state, it’s not a sure thing that Newsom will remain governor when it’s over.

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2021 Campaign, Members CA-Gov

TV Ad Blitz Begins In New York Mayoral Race

April 27, 2021 · 8:01 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “After months of campaigning by Zoom and increasingly, at in-person events, the candidates are moving toward pricey on-air advertising, signaling the start of an aggressive chapter in the race, designed to capture the attention of voters who have yet to tune in to the most consequential mayoral contest in a generation.”

2021 Campaign

Gavin Newsom Recall Clears Signature Threshold

April 26, 2021 · 6:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom has enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, Secretary of State Shirley Weber’s office reported Monday, marking a significant milestone in the more-than-year-long campaign to remove the head of the nation’s most populous state,” the Sacramento Bee reports.

California officials believe the cost of conducting the recall election could run as high as $400 million.
Taegan

2021 Campaign

Trump Endorses Susan Wright In Texas Special Election

April 26, 2021 · 4:42 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Former President Donald Trump endorsed candidate Susan Wright (R) in the crowded primary for a special House race in Texas’s 6th congressional district, The Hill reports.

She is the wife of the late Rep. Ron Wright (R).

On Saturday, we will have a good test of the power of Trump’s endorsement post-presidency.
Taegan

2021 Campaign TX-6

Ohio Will Have Two Vacant House Seats Until November

April 26, 2021 · 4:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) has scheduled the special election for the seat held by departing Rep. Steve Stivers (R) on the same day as the one he set for former Rep. Marcia Fudge (D), who is now HUD Secretary.

The primary for both elections will be on August 3. The general election will be November 2.

2021 Campaign

Troy Carter Wins Louisiana Special Election

April 24, 2021 · 10:51 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Troy Carter fulfilled a long-held ambition Saturday when voters elected him to represent the 2nd Congressional District, triumphing over Karen Carter Peterson after a bruising campaign between two Democratic state senators from New Orleans who agreed on issues more often than not,” the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.

“By all accounts, Carter will be a reliable supporter of President Joe Biden and the Democratic agenda in Washington, and he will likely work well with the other seven members of the state’s congressional delegation — all Republicans — for Louisiana spending projects.”

Carter was endorsed by former Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), who vacated the seat to join the Biden White House.
Taegan

2021 Campaign

Front-Runners Tend to Win New York City Primaries

April 24, 2021 · 3:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Harry Enten: “The New York City Democratic mayoral primary is now less than two months away, on June 22. The polls indicate that businessman and former 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang continues to hold a clear lead in the first New York City mayoral election being held under ranked choice voting.”

“While Yang’s lead is surmountable, a look back over history suggests that front-runners at this point usually go on to win the primary.”

2021 Campaign

Gavin Newsom Is No Gray Davis

April 23, 2021 · 5:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Mark Barabak: “By the time he left office, Schwarzenegger’s disapproval level reached 70%, which is where it stood for Democrat Gray Davis just before he was kicked out of office.”

“Given that, it’s questionable whether Californians will go the celebrity-governor route again.”

“Perhaps most important, Newsom is no Gray Davis, who scratched out reelection with just 47%. Newsom, by contrast, was elected with 62% of the vote.”

2021 Campaign CA-Gov

Virginia GOP Won’t Let Orthodox Jews Vote Absentee

April 23, 2021 · 4:42 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republican Party leaders have rejected a plea to let Orthodox Jews and others with religious obligations on Saturdays vote absentee in the GOP’s May 8 nominating convention, where the party will choose its candidates for governor and two other statewide offices,” the Washington Post reports.

2021 Campaign, Election Administration

Why Gavin Newsom Is About to Face a Recall Election

April 23, 2021 · 10:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

First Read: “You might think it’s in part because of his hypocritical night out at the swanky French Laundry restaurant while he was telling Californians to stay inside. You might also think it’s in part because of frustration over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the related public-health restrictions and the vaccination rollout.”

“And you’d be right.”

“But if you look at the actual recall petition that appears poised to have secured enough signatures, there’s no mention of the virus at all. Instead, that petition — dated on Feb. 20, 2020 — criticizes Newsom with a laundry list of grievances, none having anything to do with the pandemic.”

2021 Campaign CA-Gov

Caitlyn Jenner to Announce Bid for California Governor

April 23, 2021 · 9:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

Caitlyn Jenner (R) has filed her initial paperwork to run for governor of California and will officially announce her bid later today, Axios reports.

“Jenner, a longtime Republican, is seeking to replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in a recall election, hoping her celebrity status and name recognition can yield an upset in the nation’s most populous state.”

2021 Campaign CA-Gov

Andrew Yang Offends Gay Democratic Club

April 22, 2021 · 5:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Andrew Yang, the former presidential candidate and leading contender for mayor of New York City, met with a prominent LGBT Democratic political organization to seek its endorsement,” the New York Times reports.

“It did not go particularly well.”

“In an interview with the Stonewall Democratic Club, Yang cited gay members of his staff as apparent evidence of his openness to the club’s concerns, and expressed enthusiasm about the prospect of visiting Cubbyhole, a storied New York lesbian bar… but failed to pay heed to more substantive issues like homelessness and housing.”

I’m sure some of his best friends are gay too.
Taegan

2021 Campaign Andrew Yang

Texas Candidate Implies He Has Trump’s Endorsement

April 22, 2021 · 1:51 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Former pro-wrestler Dan Rodimer (R) is drawing Team Trump’s ire with ads designed to falsely imply the ex-president’s backing in a Texas special election, Axios reports.

“Trump did endorse Rodimer when he ran for a House seat in Nevada last year. But he has not backed a candidate in the Texas’s special election.”

2021 Campaign TX-6

Is Andrew Yang a New Model of Candidate?

April 19, 2021 · 10:38 am ET · Leave a Comment

Patrick Ruffini: “Pay attention to the Yang play — launch futile Presidential bid to establish name ID for a race you’d otherwise have no business running in, leapfrogging a host of local pols. If it works, 25+ candidate fields could be the norm moving forward.”

“If all politics is national and it’s easier these days for everyone get their 15 minutes in a Presidential primary, this seems like a viable strategy in states where it’s impossible to break through like California, Texas, and New York.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “Never mind that most of the no-name candidates remained obscure, and never mind whether Yang could’ve found another path — if he becomes mayor after running for president, or even comes close, many in the political world are going to interpret his campaign as a savvy move, no matter how many counterexamples exist.”

2021 Campaign

Yang Leads Democrats In New York City

April 19, 2021 · 6:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Spectrum News NY1/Ipsos poll shows Andrew Yang firmly leading the New York City Democratic mayoral primary with the support of 22% of likely voters. He’s followed by Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams at 13%.

It’s very early and few are paying attention but the polls have been remarkably consistent so far.
Taegan

2021 Campaign

Villaraigosa Mulls Entering Recall Race

April 17, 2021 · 11:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Times: “Three years after his underwhelming performance in the California governor’s race, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is being talked about as a possible Democratic candidate in the likely recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom.”

“Some political analysts argue that a well-known Democrat should appear on the ballot to blunt the chances of a Republican or fringe candidate winning. Others, including state Democratic leaders, urge a united front and are discouraging Democrats from running. Villaraigosa has criticized the recall. But he’s not publicly ruled out a run, prompting speculation about his plans.”

2021 Campaign CA-Gov

Yang Under Fire Over Video Suggesting Violence to Women

April 15, 2021 · 9:21 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Andrew Yang faced an onslaught of criticism Thursday after a video circulated of the leading mayoral candidate laughing when asked if he ‘choked bitches,'” Politico reports.

“In the video, someone asks the mayoral front-runner whether a man, ‘while he’s fucking bitches, can he keep his Timbs on?’ — a reference to Timberland boots. Yang said, ‘I think it’s purely up to your partner.'”

“The man continued by asking Yang whether he ‘chokes bitches,’ to which Yang laughed and backed away.”

Meanwhile, a new Data for Progress poll shows Yang expanding his lead over his Democratic primary rivals.

2021 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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