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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Polling Suggests Wide Open Race for Virginia GOP Nod

May 7, 2021 · 1:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A Public Policy Polling survey finds state Sen. Amanda Chase (R) leads among primary voters (when asked who they would like their delegates to support) with 23% and Glenn Youngkin (R) at 21% and 30% undecided.

A Change Research poll finds that Chase leads among primary voters (when asked who they would like their delegates to support) with 29% and Youngkin with 25%.

A Trafalgar Group poll on behalf of the Youngkin campaign of likely delegates has him leading with 38% and Pete Snyder (R) at 26%.

Don’t give much weight to this polling as the “race” is actually a convention with 53,000 delegates.
Taegan

2021 Campaign

Virginia GOP Candidates: ‘Trumpy, Trumpier, Trumpiest’

May 7, 2021 · 7:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “One candidate brands himself a ‘conservative outlaw.’ Another boasts of her bipartisan censure by the State Senate for calling the Capitol rioters ‘patriots.’ A third, asked about Dominion voting machines — the subject of egregious conspiracy theories on the right — called them ‘the most important issue’ of the campaign.”

“These are not fringe candidates for the Republican nomination for Virginia governor.”

“They are three of the leading contenders in a race that in many ways embodies the decade-long meltdown of Republican power in Virginia, a once-purple state that has gyrated more decisively toward Democrats than perhaps any in the country.”

For members: We’ll Know a Lot More About the GOP After Saturday

2021 Campaign, Republicans

Caitlyn Jenner Has Hangar Pains After Interview

May 6, 2021 · 10:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Recall candidate Caitlyn Jenner (R) may have played right into Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) hands when she lamented on Fox News that a neighboring private plane owner at her airport hangar is abandoning California because he ‘can’t take’ seeing homeless people anymore,” Politico reports.

“In less than 24 hours, that comment has drawn more than 5 million views on Twitter and prompted a caustic string of rebukes, potshots and one-liners mocking the TV reality show star as out of touch. It raised the more serious question of whether — in one brief moment — the candidate disarmed one of the Republicans’ most effective caricatures of the wealthy Democratic governor as a tone-deaf leader who dined at the French Laundry during the pandemic.”

2021 Campaign CA-Gov

Quote of the Day

May 6, 2021 · 8:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The guy right across, he was packing up his hangar. And he says, ‘I’m moving to Sedona, Arizona. I can’t take it anymore. I can’t walk down the streets and see the homeless.’”

— Caitlyn Jenner, recounting a conversation with a fellow private plane owner on Fox News from her Malibu airplane hangar.

2021 Campaign

Eric Adams Tops Andrew Yang In New York City Poll

May 5, 2021 · 5:53 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new GQR poll in New York City finds Eric Adams leading the Democratic mayoral field with 21% support, followed by Andrew Yang at 18% and Scott Stringer at 15%.

No other candidate cracked double digits, and 11% reported being undecided ahead of the June 22 primary.

2021 Campaign

More California Voters Want to Keep Gavin Newsom

May 5, 2021 · 9:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new SurveyUSA poll in California finds that 47% of voters say Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) should remain in office, while 36% say he should be recalled.

2021 Campaign CA-Gov

Virginia Republicans Gear Up for Convention

May 5, 2021 · 7:24 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Virginia Republicans are gearing up for their party’s gubernatorial nominating convention on Saturday in a race that could signal how the party plans to navigate the post-Trump era,” The Hill reports.

“Unlike their Democratic counterpart, the GOP nominee will be chosen by a record 53,000 delegates on Saturday. Republicans say the sheer number of delegates slated to participate in the convention reflects energy among the commonwealth’s GOP grassroots.”

2021 Campaign, Republicans VA-Gov

Caitlyn Jenner Runs as ‘Compassionate Disrupter’

May 4, 2021 · 8:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

Caitlyn Jenner (R), the former Olympic decathlete and reality TV personality now running for California governor, has branded herself as a “compassionate disrupter” fighting against “elitist” career politicians in a new campaign launch video released Tuesday, ABC News reports.

2021 Campaign CA-Gov

California GOP Will Need Unity to Recall Gavin Newsom

May 4, 2021 · 8:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

Seth Masket: “Schwarzenegger had a party behind him, one that was capable of collective action. No, there was no official way to designate a Republican nominee in the recall, but Schwarzenegger functionally became that anyway. A vast ideological range of Republican officeholders and activists, even those who strongly disagreed with his stances on some social and environmental issues, enthusiastically backed him, seeing him as the best shot the party would have in seizing the governor’s office for a generation.”

“Through both subtle and crass means, they pressured other Republican candidates out of the contest, making sure that the Republican vote would not be split. This is how Schwarzenegger ended up with 49 percent of the vote in a field of 135 candidates.”

Mark Barabak: Good news for Gavin Newsom – California is no longer the place it was in 2003.

2021 Campaign

The Trump-Era Special Election Boomlet Is Over

May 3, 2021 · 11:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

Inside Elections: “In 2017 and 2018, special elections were the talk of the political town. The race for Georgia’s 6th District, a traditionally Republican seat that Trump carried by just a point, attracted tens of millions of dollars in donor money and countless hours of news coverage. It also jump-started the career of an unknown Democrat named Jon Ossoff, now the youngest member of the U.S. Senate. But it wasn’t just Georgia. Specials in Pennsylvania, Montana, even Kansas and South Carolina were treated as major political events.”

“By contrast, the Texas 6th race was a sleepy affair from a national perspective. The field of 23 candidates raised less than $3 million combined by April 11 — a tenth of what Ossoff alone raised in that 2017 race. Turnout in Texas was just 16%, a drop from 68% last November. Turnout in Georgia’s 6th also dropped from 2016 to 2017, but from 76% to a still-rocking 58%, and in the 2017 Montana special from 74% to 54%.”

2021 Campaign

Wild Virginia GOP Nomination Hits Final Stretch

May 3, 2021 · 10:02 am ET · Leave a Comment

Virginia Mercury: “An AR-15 brandished during a virtual candidate forum. A flood of mysterious attack mailers. A candidate’s unabashed love of hot dogs.”

“The contest to become the Republican candidate for governor is entering its final week, and the race remains just as unusual as when it started.”

Meanwhile, Medium Buying reports that the two former business executives–Pete Snyder and Glenn Youngkin have dominated the spending: out of more than $4.6 million in TV and radio spending on the Republican side, Glenn Youngkin has spent $2.2 million and Pete Snyder has spent $1.85 million.

2021 Campaign VA-Gov

Another Bad Election Night for Democrats In Texas

May 3, 2021 · 6:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Democrats hoping for some encouraging signs in Texas did not find any on Saturday in a special election to fill a vacant congressional seat. Instead, they found themselves locked out of a runoff that will now see two Republicans battle for the seat in northern Texas.”

“Democrats who needed a strong turnout to be competitive did not get one. They were hoping for signs of weakness in the Republican brand because of the state’s disastrous response to the brutal winter storm in February or any signs of weariness with Mr. Trump, but they did not see that, either.”

2021 Campaign

Democrats Likely Locked Out of Texas Runoff

May 2, 2021 · 7:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Susan Wright, the widow of the late congressman, and fellow Republican Jake Ellzey are running first and second in the all-party special House election in Texas, which would lock Democrats out of the runoff and end their most promising chance to expand their House majority this year,” Politico reports.

“The Associated Press called a runoff spot for Wright late Saturday night, but Ellzey’s spot is still in question even with all precincts reporting their results. Ellzey, a state legislator, leads the third-place candidate, Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez, by 0.4 percentage points — 354 votes. The AP has yet to call the second runoff slot.”

2021 Campaign

Andrew Yang Promised 100,000 Jobs But Created Just 150

May 1, 2021 · 2:13 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “With the zeal of an evangelist, Mr. Yang raised tens of millions of dollars for the organization with the goal of creating 100,000 jobs in cities where they were most needed, such as Detroit. The aim led the Obama administration to declare Mr. Yang a ‘Champion of Change’ and paved the way for his political career.”

“But a review by The New York Times of Mr. Yang’s tenure at Venture for America found a yawning gap between his bold promises and the results of his efforts.”

“Only a small fraction of the group’s alumni have started companies, and most of those businesses have either closed or moved to traditional start-up hubs like Silicon Valley. Today, only about 150 people work at companies founded by alumni in the cities that the nonprofit has targeted.”

2021 Campaign

Trump Gets Tested In Suburban Texas

May 1, 2021 · 10:43 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Former President Donald Trump’s influence on the Republican Party will get its first official, post-presidential test Saturday, when 11 GOP candidates vie in an all-party special election to succeed the late Texas Rep. Ron Wright,” Politico reports.

“The contest, which also features 10 Democrats, one libertarian and one independent, will be held in a suburban Fort Worth district that wasn’t deeply enamored of Trump — he ran behind his statewide performance there in 2020, winning by just 3 percentage points. Due to the crowded nature of the field, it’s likely to end up in a runoff.”

2021 Campaign, Trump Legacy

Robocall Accuses Candidate of Killing Her Husband

April 30, 2021 · 3:04 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Texas Republican congressional candidate Susan Wright (R) is seeking help from federal law enforcement the day before her special election, after supporters reported receiving robocalls that accused her of being responsible for the death of her late husband,” Politico reports.

“Wright’s campaign reached out to the FBI and the Department of Justice on Friday after discovering robocalls baselessly alleging that she had ‘murdered’ her husband, the late Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX).”

2021 Campaign, Dirty Tricks

Trump Crashes Final Days of Texas Special Election

April 30, 2021 · 7:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “The first competitive special election of the new election cycle has quickly turned into a 2020 redux: It’s the Donald Trump show all over again.”

“Trump made a late foray in the 23-candidate scramble for a vacant congressional seat in North Texas, transforming a once-quiet race into a major test of his post-presidency king-making power. After endorsing Susan Wright, a Republican activist and widow of the late incumbent, Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX), Trump joined her and the anti-tax Club for Growth at a tele-town hall on Thursday night to rail against his rival, President Joe Biden, and remind listeners of the stakes.”

2021 Campaign TX-6

Caitlyn Jenner’s Recall Campaign Goes Silent

April 30, 2021 · 6:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “The reality TV star and transgender activist hasn’t made a single TV appearance. She hasn’t held a press conference or social media event. No rollout of key Republican endorsements. She doesn’t have an issues page on her website, but offers ways to ‘donate’ and buy ‘Caitlyn for California’ merchandise.”

Said GOP consultant Rob Stutzman: “If she doesn’t come out and say something within the next several days, I think everyone moves on and says this is just some type of crank candidacy.”

2021 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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