“For two days, Kari Lake traversed this state with a clear message. She falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump. She baselessly insisted that votes were rigged against her in her run for Arizona governor last year. And she warned without evidence that future races will be compromised,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Lake: “If you lose, lose with dignity. You shake the other person’s hand and walk away. I didn’t lose, so I’m not doing that.”
“Early last year, the Hollywood mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg sat for lunch with Rick Caruso, a billionaire mall tycoon who was preparing his run for Los Angeles mayor,” Politico reports.
“Katzenberg told Caruso he understood why he was running. He made clear his support for Congresswoman Karen Bass in the race.”
“And then came the warning: If Caruso took the high road, Katzenberg said that he would, too. But, ‘If you take the low road,’ a person familiar with the conversation recounted, ‘I’m going lower.'”
“The threat was a quintessential demonstration of political power from Katzenberg — one of the country’s premier Democratic donors, and for decades a kingmaker for aspiring politicians. But it also illustrates the nuance with which the former Walt Disney Studios chairman and DreamWorks co-founder was now using his influence.”
“Arizona’s top election official has asked the attorney general to investigate Kari Lake, the Republican candidate who lost her bid for governor in 2022, over potential campaign violations involving the disclosure of voter signatures,” the Washington Post reports.
“The complaint could set up a legal showdown in the battleground state between a prominent conservative election denier backed by Donald Trump and two newly elected Democrats who campaigned with messages of strengthening public trust in elections.”
“Steve Bannon took election denialism to an unhinged level on his podcast this week, when he didn’t just indulge in the baseless claims of election fraud favored by former President Donald Trump, but went so far as to tell Kari Lake ‘you’re the frickin’ governor of Arizona,’” Mediaite reports.
Amanda Carpenter: “In 2024, nearly half of the Democratic caucus—23 senators—is up for re-election. Of those, eight are considered vulnerable: five in battleground states (Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia) and the other three in solidly red states (Ohio, Montana, West Virginia). Republicans, on the other hand, have only 11 senators up for re-election in the 2024 cycle, and all of them represent states Trump won in 2020…”
“So even though it’s early and elections are unpredictable, the map math is hard to deny: Republicans stand a much better shot of taking control of the Senate than Democrats do of keeping it in 2024.”
“There’s not a darn reason we should’ve lost.”
— Kari Lake (R), on Steve Bannon’s podcast, coming close to finally admitting she lost the race for governor in Arizona.
Washington Post: “Republican officials in New Mexico knew that Solomon Peña, the man police accused last week of orchestrating shootings into the homes of four Albuquerque Democrats, had served nearly seven years in prison for his role in smash-and-grab thefts before he lost his bid as the GOP nominee for a state House seat.”
“They also knew that Peña was a fervent proponent of the view that the 2020 presidential election was rigged. Authorities said Peña was persuaded that his own election in November had been stolen — despite being defeated by nearly 50 points — and targeted the homes of officials who refused to entertain demands that his loss be reversed.”
“After Peña’s arrest, Republican leaders condemned the attacks, which included a spray of bullets into a 10-year-old’s bedroom, and acknowledged that the former candidate’s criminal history should have been a red flag. There was far less apparent interest in a reckoning over Peña’s beliefs in widespread voter fraud, a false theory pushed relentlessly by former president Donald Trump and his supporters.”
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) launched his U.S. Senate campaign this morning with an extraordinary video.
“When Kari Lake lost the Arizona governor’s race in November, political experts generally agreed it was because she alienated Republican-leaning voters. A new analysis puts hard numbers on that phenomenon, showing Maricopa County voters who backed GOP candidates in less prominent races shunned Lake,” the Arizona Republic reports.
“Those decisions made a profound difference: Democrat Katie Hobbs picked up the support of 33,000 Maricopa County voters who cast ballots for Republicans in six down-ballot races, such as state treasurer and county attorney. Adding to Lake’s deficit were another nearly 6,000 Republican-leaning voters who opted to skip the race altogether or wrote in a candidate, the analysis found.”
“If those voters had stuck with the GOP ticket, Lake would have won. She lost by 17,117 votes statewide.”
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) said she thinks abortion is the reason why Republicans did not pick up a larger majority in the House, urging lawmakers to find middle ground on the issue, The Hill reports.
Said Mace: “It’s the reason we didn’t get more of a majority. We should have had a dozen or two dozen seat majority this legislative session but we don’t because this is one of the issues that was top of mind for swing voters.”
The 2022 Collaborative Midterm Survey from Cornell University — a poll of nearly 20,000 U.S. adults with large oversamples in California, Florida, and Wisconsin — was just published.
An interactive feature allows you to really dig into the results. Highly recommended.
Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) “wasn’t on any ballot in 2022, but she was deeply involved in the election anyway through a series of new organizations, millions in GOP-focused donations, and today, a 30-page after-action report on what she says worked for Republicans in Georgia and what didn’t,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Key to Republican wins in 2022, the report says, were a Loeffler-sponsored year-round registration and mobilization effort, messaging about Georgia Republicans’ election law overhaul through Senate Bill 202, and having Gov. Brian Kemp at the top of the GOP ticket.”
“Not mentioned in the report at all is Herschel Walker’s campaign, the lone statewide loss for the GOP.”
Politico: “As a sign of the seriousness of the effort, the state party has enlisted Public Opinion Strategies, a D.C. area-based firm, to conduct the review of the 2022 election. Republicans said it is expected to cost $100,000.”
“Discovering the truth is one thing. Accepting it is another. And the state GOP’s ability to do just that will likely have a profound impact on whether it can help the party take back the White House in 2024.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) endorsed Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) in her newly-announced bid for U.S. Senate in California.
NBC News: “Warren’s marks the first major endorsement in the burgeoning primary battle for the California seat— still currently occupied by Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Porter officially announced her intention to seek the seat on Tuesday, even though Feinstein has not yet said if she is running for a sixth term.”
“Asian Americans have typically formed a crucial and reliable voting bloc for Democrats in recent years, helping the party maintain its political dominance in liberal states like New York,” the New York Times reports.
“But Republicans shattered that presumption in November when they came within striking distance of winning the governor’s race in New York for the first time in 15 years, buoyed in part by a surge of support among Asian American voters in southern Brooklyn and eastern Queens.”
Failed Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker (R) “closed the year — after his November general election and December runoff — with more than $5 million in cash on hand,” NBC News reports.
“While those still in office use their leftover cash to fund their political organization and gear up for the next bid, those who lose still have broad leeway in how they can use their leftover money. While they can’t use the money on personal expenses, they can transfer cash to other candidates, PACs or political parties, donate the money to charity, or use the money for another campaign or political purpose.”
Stacey Abrams, the two-time failed candidate for governor in Georgia and a renowned voting rights activist, says she will “likely” run for office again but did not specify for which position, The Hill reports.
Said Abrams: “I will likely run again. If at first you don’t succeed, try try again. If it doesn’t work, you try again.”
Evan Coren: “In the 2022 midterms a swing of only 6,647 votes combined across the closest House races would have resulted in a Democratic majority in the House.”
“That is 6,647 votes out of over 107 million votes cast in the 2022 midterm. Meaning a movement of 0.006% of votes would have changed control of the House.”
“Due to those 6,647 vote we ended up with the current House Republican majority that is unable to unite around a Speaker.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.