“Democrats plan to scrutinize soaring profits in the oil sector if they take control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, raising the specter that companies could face congressional investigations and hearings,” Bloomberg reports.
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194
What Just Happened?
Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?
Trump’s Latest Election Fraud Push Finds Little Traction
Washington Post: “Outside of the president’s list of frequently dialed contacts and the clips assembled of White House-aligned influencers praising his speech, the prime-time address failed to galvanize conservatives, with some publicly questioning his focus on 2020 as the midterms approach. Republicans fighting to maintain congressional control this fall largely sidestepped the message.”
”By the weekend, the White House-aligned commentators and members of Congress who had pushed the Trump team’s talking points about the speech had seemingly moved on. The muted response underscored a broader political reality: Many Republicans facing voters this fall have shown little interest in making Trump’s renewed focus on the 2020 election central to their campaigns as they head into a midterm complicated by the president’s weak standing with independent voters.”
Democrats Have Slim Lead in Race for House
“Americans prefer Democrats to Republicans in the congressional midterm elections by only a slim margin, but Democratic supporters are far more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll.
“Because of partisan redistricting that favors Republicans this year, analysts estimate that Democrats need to win by three to four percentage points overall to gain a majority in the House. The poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by about that margin, 48 percent to 45 percent.”
“The blue advantage grows to eight points among those ‘absolutely certain to vote,’ with 53 percent of highly motivated voters supporting Democrats and 45 percent supporting Republicans.”
The 2022 Midterm Elections Were a Big Hint
Nate Cohn: “Many of this cycle’s surprising shifts were foreshadowed in the midterms.”
“The national popular vote for president in 2024 will look eerily similar to the popular vote for U.S. House in 2022. The winner by state will be exactly the same — at least if you take the combined Republican vote in Alaska in 2022. And many of the details will be similar as well, like Republicans’ big gains in Florida and New York.”
“As a result, the 2024 presidential election results by state correlate more closely with the swings from the 2022 midterm election in the U.S. House than with the result of the 2020 presidential election.”
“This is not what anyone would have expected two years ago. Usually, midterms don’t foreshadow the next presidential election.”
Ex-GOP Candidate Charged with Stalking
Olympic gold medalist and former congressional candidate Marty Nothstein (R) faces charges of stalking and criminal mischief in connection with an incident involving his ex-girlfriend, the Allentown Morning Call reports.
Nothstein had similar charges filed against him in the past.
Tape Reveals Arizona GOP Chair Trying to Bribe Kari Lake
The Daily Mail has an audio recording of what appears to be Arizona’s top Republican official trying to bribe Kari Lake (R) not to run for U.S. Senate.
Jeff DeWit, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, can be heard asking Lake, a close ally of Donald Trump, to name her price to stay out of politics for two years.
Said DeWit: “There are very powerful people who want to keep you out.”
DeWit also told Lake that he thinks Trump will lose the 2024 election and it is time to make way for someone else.
Candidate’s Driver Feared Physical Violence From Her
“Three former campaign workers for U.S. congressional candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) have come forward to allege that, during her last bid for office, the candidate twice made physical contact with her campaign driver,” Willamette Week reports.
“The three allege the situation got so bad that the driver expressed fear of McLeod-Skinner, leading senior campaign staff and advisers to remove the driver from a home where he and McLeod-Skinner were staying Nov. 3, 2022.”
GOP Lawmaker Prayed for a Small Majority
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) told top conservative donors last week that he was rooting against Republicans winning as many House seats as possible during the 2022 midterms, The Messenger reports.
Said Rosendale: “Look, we have shown, OK, with a very small handful of people, six at times, five at times, that we can have tremendous impact in that body and when a lot of people, unfortunately, were voting to have a 270, 280 Republican House, I was praying each evening for a small majority.”
Trump Unveils More Top South Carolina Backers
“Donald Trump added a pack of new top South Carolina Republicans to his endorsement list Monday, showcasing his dominance over the two Palmetto State politicians running against him, Sen. Tim Scott and former Gov. Nikki Haley,” The Messenger reports.
Candidate Who Lost by 18,000 Votes Finally Admits Defeat
A Republican candidate who lost last November’s election for county judge in Texas by more than 18,000 votes has finally given up on a lawsuit challenging the election, the Houston Chronicle reports.
There Are Vast Differences in Congressional Turnout
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Despite a requirement that congressional districts have roughly identical populations within states, the number of raw votes cast in each district can vary widely, both within a state and across the country.”
“In 2022, there was a nearly 300,000-vote difference between the lowest-turnout district (NY-15 in New York City) and the highest-turnout one (MI-1 in northern Michigan).”
“Republicans won about two-thirds of the districts that cast the most votes (300,000 or more) while Democrats won about two-thirds of the districts that cast the fewest (less than 200,000).”
Ron Johnson Uses Donor Funds to Pay Himself Back
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) “is paying himself back hundreds of thousands of dollars for loans he made to his prior Senate campaigns, despite claiming he wouldn’t seek to recoup the money from donors,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
“Johnson previously claimed that he wouldn’t seek to repay the $8.4 million in outstanding loans he claimed his campaign owes him for loans in his 2010 and 2016 campaigns.”
Republicans Had Stronger Midterm Turnout in 2022
New York Times: “Even though Democrats held off a widely expected red wave in the 2022 midterm elections, Republican turnout was in fact stronger, and the party energized key demographic groups including women, Latinos and rural voters, according to a report released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center.”
“The report serves as a warning sign for Democrats ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with early polls pointing toward a possible rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump.”
“Though Democrats maintained control of the Senate, all but one of their governor’s mansions and only narrowly lost the House, the Pew data shows that a larger percentage of voters who supported Mr. Trump in 2020 cast ballots in November than those who backed Mr. Biden did. People who had voted in past elections but sat out 2022 were overwhelmingly Democrats.”
Kari Lake Sued for Defamation
Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer is suing former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake for defamation, the Arizona Republic reports.
Kari Lake Appeals Her Election Loss Again
Kari Lake (R) announced that she is once again mounting a legal challenge against her loss in 2022’s Arizona gubernatorial elections, the Daily Beast reports.
Lake says that her team “now have the video” to support claims of misconduct in Maricopa County.
She added: “I will never back down. That election was stolen from the people and there will be no way that I back down from that. I just won’t, because it’s wrong, what happened.”
Judge Dismisses Kari Lake’s Final Claim
“A judge on Monday dismissed the only remaining legal claim in Republican Kari Lake’s challenge of her loss in last year’s race for Arizona governor, affirming the election of Democrat Katie Hobbs,” the AP reports.
Young Voters Were Key to Democrats’ Success in 2022
Cook Political Report: “GenZ/Millennial voters (defined as those between the ages of 18-41), not only turned out at higher levels than they did in 2018, but they were the only age group that increased their support for Democratic candidates from 2018.”
“After 2008, many assumed that Obama’s personal connection with younger voters would transfer to the Democratic Party’s candidates in subsequent elections. That didn’t happen. Instead, what seems to be driving younger voters to the polls isn’t love, but anger. In 2018, Donald Trump’s presence in the White House was a motivating factor for these voters. In 2022, anger over the abortion decision was the most likely catalyst for turnout.”
How Election Denial Hurt the Republicans in 2022
New York Times: “Denying the results of the 2020 election and casting doubts about the nation’s voting system cost statewide Republican candidates 2.3 to 3.7 percentage points in the midterms last year, according to a new study.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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