Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) launched his U.S. Senate campaign this morning with an extraordinary video.
Kari Lake Ran a Terrible Campaign
“When Kari Lake lost the Arizona governor’s race in November, political experts generally agreed it was because she alienated Republican-leaning voters. A new analysis puts hard numbers on that phenomenon, showing Maricopa County voters who backed GOP candidates in less prominent races shunned Lake,” the Arizona Republic reports.
“Those decisions made a profound difference: Democrat Katie Hobbs picked up the support of 33,000 Maricopa County voters who cast ballots for Republicans in six down-ballot races, such as state treasurer and county attorney. Adding to Lake’s deficit were another nearly 6,000 Republican-leaning voters who opted to skip the race altogether or wrote in a candidate, the analysis found.”
“If those voters had stuck with the GOP ticket, Lake would have won. She lost by 17,117 votes statewide.”
GOP Lawmaker Blames Abortion for Narrow Majority
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) said she thinks abortion is the reason why Republicans did not pick up a larger majority in the House, urging lawmakers to find middle ground on the issue, The Hill reports.
Said Mace: “It’s the reason we didn’t get more of a majority. We should have had a dozen or two dozen seat majority this legislative session but we don’t because this is one of the issues that was top of mind for swing voters.”
What Voters Thought In the 2022 Midterms
The 2022 Collaborative Midterm Survey from Cornell University — a poll of nearly 20,000 U.S. adults with large oversamples in California, Florida, and Wisconsin — was just published.
An interactive feature allows you to really dig into the results. Highly recommended.
Loeffler Post-Election Report Ignores Herschel Walker
Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) “wasn’t on any ballot in 2022, but she was deeply involved in the election anyway through a series of new organizations, millions in GOP-focused donations, and today, a 30-page after-action report on what she says worked for Republicans in Georgia and what didn’t,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Key to Republican wins in 2022, the report says, were a Loeffler-sponsored year-round registration and mobilization effort, messaging about Georgia Republicans’ election law overhaul through Senate Bill 202, and having Gov. Brian Kemp at the top of the GOP ticket.”
“Not mentioned in the report at all is Herschel Walker’s campaign, the lone statewide loss for the GOP.”
Pennsylvania GOP to Conduct Midterm Autopsy
Politico: “As a sign of the seriousness of the effort, the state party has enlisted Public Opinion Strategies, a D.C. area-based firm, to conduct the review of the 2022 election. Republicans said it is expected to cost $100,000.”
“Discovering the truth is one thing. Accepting it is another. And the state GOP’s ability to do just that will likely have a profound impact on whether it can help the party take back the White House in 2024.”
Elizabeth Warren Endorses Katie Porter for Senate
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) endorsed Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) in her newly-announced bid for U.S. Senate in California.
NBC News: “Warren’s marks the first major endorsement in the burgeoning primary battle for the California seat— still currently occupied by Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Porter officially announced her intention to seek the seat on Tuesday, even though Feinstein has not yet said if she is running for a sixth term.”
Crime Drove Asian Americans Away From Democrats
“Asian Americans have typically formed a crucial and reliable voting bloc for Democrats in recent years, helping the party maintain its political dominance in liberal states like New York,” the New York Times reports.
“But Republicans shattered that presumption in November when they came within striking distance of winning the governor’s race in New York for the first time in 15 years, buoyed in part by a surge of support among Asian American voters in southern Brooklyn and eastern Queens.”
Herschel Walker Still Had $5 Million Left
Failed Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker (R) “closed the year — after his November general election and December runoff — with more than $5 million in cash on hand,” NBC News reports.
“While those still in office use their leftover cash to fund their political organization and gear up for the next bid, those who lose still have broad leeway in how they can use their leftover money. While they can’t use the money on personal expenses, they can transfer cash to other candidates, PACs or political parties, donate the money to charity, or use the money for another campaign or political purpose.”
Stacey Abrams Says She’ll Run Again
Stacey Abrams, the two-time failed candidate for governor in Georgia and a renowned voting rights activist, says she will “likely” run for office again but did not specify for which position, The Hill reports.
Said Abrams: “I will likely run again. If at first you don’t succeed, try try again. If it doesn’t work, you try again.”
Why Election Outcomes Are Important
Evan Coren: “In the 2022 midterms a swing of only 6,647 votes combined across the closest House races would have resulted in a Democratic majority in the House.”
“That is 6,647 votes out of over 107 million votes cast in the 2022 midterm. Meaning a movement of 0.006% of votes would have changed control of the House.”
“Due to those 6,647 vote we ended up with the current House Republican majority that is unable to unite around a Speaker.”
Mike Lindell Turns on Ron DeSantis
Conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell said he is going to Florida to audit Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) re-election victory because there is no way he could have won that big a margin.
Kathleen Rice Says She Warned of GOP Wins in New York
Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-NY) told Politico that she warned Democratic leaders of electoral losses on Long Island before the midterms.
Said Rice: “This is a blue, blue state, and it’s the reason why we lost the majority. We lost four House seats. I said, ‘You guys, don’t understand, we’re gonna lose Long Island. And we’re gonna lose some other seats, further up.’ They said, ‘No, no, no, your seat was a Biden +13.'”
Black Support for GOP Ticked Up in Midterms
Republican candidates were backed by 14% of Black voters, compared with 8% in the last midterm elections four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.
How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
New York Times: “Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.”
“That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.”
“The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s ‘War Room’ podcast and ‘The Charlie Kirk Show’ to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.”
More Than 100 Officials Faced Recall Elections in 2022
Joshua Spivak: “More than 100 public officials across the United States faced the impact of recall elections year, a return to normalcy after two consecutive years in which the coronavirus pandemic inspired a huge number of recall efforts across the nation, but a drop in actual results.”
“Voters in 21 states used the recall against 108 public officials this year… Eighty-six of those officials faced recall elections, and voters gave 50 their walking papers. Just 36 survived.”
“Another 18 didn’t even wait for recalls to force them back onto the ballot. Those officials resigned before they had to face voters again.”
Democrat Wins Recount for Arizona Attorney General
Attorney General-elect Kris Mayes (D) retained her lead over Abe Hamadeh (R) “in a recount in one of the tightest races ever in Arizona history, but her winning margin narrowed significantly in results announced Thursday morning,” the Arizona Republic reports.
“Mayes was certified the winner with 280 more votes than Hamadeh, but an attorney for the defeated candidate said they were weighing legal options.”
How Did George Santos Win with a Fictitious Resume?
Steve Israel: “The answer is a combination of Democratic complacency, Republican extremism, and media decline in a House district that I know intimately.”
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