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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Pennsylvania Finally Certifies Midterm Election Results

December 27, 2022 · 12:04 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Pennsylvania’s top elections official fully certified results from the November vote late last week after recount petitions in some counties had delayed the process,” the AP reports.

2022 Campaign

Republicans Stumbled with Independent Voters

December 26, 2022 · 7:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That’s far short of the 51% that Democrats scored with the same group in 2018 when they swept into power by picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing among independents helps explain in part why Republicans flipped just nine seats, securing a threadbare majority that has already raised questions about the party’s ability to govern…”

“VoteCast suggests that independent voters distinguished between the problems facing the U.S. and Biden’s culpability for them. While few independents said the economy is doing well and about two-thirds disapproved of Biden’s handling of it, independents were slightly more likely to say inflation is the result of factors outside Biden’s control than that Biden is to blame, 51% to 47%, according to the survey…”

“Some Republican strategists say the finding is a sign that messages that resonate during party primaries, including searing critiques of Biden, were less effective in the general election campaign because independent voters were searching for more than just the opposition.”

2022 Campaign

Judge Rejects Kari Lake’s Effort to Overturn Election

December 24, 2022 · 1:29 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A state judge on Saturday rejected Kari Lake’s last-ditch effort to overturn her defeat in the Arizona governor’s race, dismissing for lack of evidence her last two claims of misconduct by Maricopa County election officials,” the New York Times reports.

“The order by Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson, after a two-day trial in Phoenix that ended Thursday, follows more than six weeks of claims by Ms. Lake, a Republican, that she was robbed of victory last month — assertions that echoed the false contention that was at the heart of her campaign: that an even larger theft had stolen the 2020 presidential election from Donald Trump.”

“Ms. Lake and her supporters conjured up what they called a deliberate effort by election officials in Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, to disenfranchise her voters. But they never provided evidence of such intentional malfeasance, nor even evidence that any voters had been disenfranchised.”

2022 Campaign

A Record Number of Women Governors

December 23, 2022 · 12:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “According to Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics, a dozen women will now be serving as governor, making up nearly a quarter of all state executives.”

“That breaks the previous record of nine, first set after the 2004 election. That was also the number of women governors heading into this midterm cycle, representing a gain of three. The breakdown includes eight Democrats and four Republicans.”

2022 Campaign

Every Senate Toss Up Race Went Democrats’ Way

December 23, 2022 · 11:02 am ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “For the first time since tracking this metric, all the most competitive races broke in the same direction. We typically see a majority of the seats going whichever party’s way has the momentum that cycle, but this underscores just how much Democrats ran the table.”

2022 Campaign

The GOP Barely Won Control of the House

December 23, 2022 · 10:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Republicans picked up nine seats to win a 222-213 majority, a mirror image of Democrats’ prior edge. But they wouldn’t be in the majority if not for razor-thin wins by five of their candidates: Lauren Boebert in CO-03 (546 votes), John Duarte in CA-13 (564 votes), John James in MI-10 (1,600 votes), Mike Lawler in NY-17 (1,820 votes) and Zach Nunn in IA-03 (2,145 votes).”

“That’s an effective margin of just 6,675 votes out of 107.6 million votes cast in House races nationwide (0.0062%), about a fifth of the 31,751-vote margin by which Democrats won the House in 2020.”

2022 Campaign

George Santos Staffer Impersonated Top McCarthy Aide

December 22, 2022 · 8:08 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A campaign staffer trying to raise money for Rep.-elect George Santos (R-NY) called up donors last year pretending to be Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s chief of staff,” the Washington Times reports.

“State GOP operatives found out the scheme by the Santos campaign staffer involved not only impersonating McCarthy Chief of Staff Dan Meyer but sending follow-up emails to the donors from a fake email address.”

2022 Campaign

Kari Lake Provides No Evidence of Election Fraud

December 22, 2022 · 7:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The first day of an evidence trial based on an election-challenge lawsuit by Republican governor candidate Kari Lake raised plentiful suspicions but did not reveal evidence of the misconduct she alleged,” the Arizona Republic reports.

2022 Campaign, Election Administration

Jennifer McClellan Wins Virginia Firehouse Primary

December 22, 2022 · 6:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

Jennifer McClellan (D) easily won the Democratic nomination to succeed the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D) in Virginia’s 4th congressional district.

McClellan won nearly 85% of the votes cast in a “firehouse primary” and is heavily favored to win a February 21 special election.

2022 Campaign

Did George Santos Lie About Everything?

December 21, 2022 · 1:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Vox: “The story has sparked one of the more bizarre political scandals in American history. Members of Congress have committed murder in office. In fact, a member of Congress has even killed another member of Congress. Even in the present day, we’ve seen every scandal under the sun, from Anthony Weiner tweeting a lewd picture of himself, to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s infamous Facebook post about Jewish space lasers.”

“But it’s hard to think of a precedent for a scandal like this.”

What’s especially crazy is that this wasn’t his first election. He ran two years ago, and lost, against Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY).
Taegan

2022 Campaign, Scandal

Stacey Abrams’ Campaign Spending Under Scrutiny

December 21, 2022 · 11:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

Atlanta Journal Constitution: “Stacey Abrams raised more than $103 million for her failed rematch this year against Gov. Brian Kemp, a record-setting haul for a Georgia gubernatorial race that allowed her to experiment with unconventional ways to promote her candidacy.”

“But her campaign’s expenditures have come under sharper scrutiny as new details emerge about the tight cash crunch she faced before her November defeat to Kemp by nearly 8 points.”

2022 Campaign, Campaign Finance

Romney Mulls Re-Election Bid

December 21, 2022 · 9:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Many of Mitt Romney’s fellow senators assume his willingness to break from his party — and Donald Trump — means he’s planning for only one term. They may be surprised,” Politico reports.

Whether he could win is “frankly, not a question in my mind,” Romney said in an interview.

Said Romney: “I’ve faced long odds: Getting the nomination in 2012 was a long shot, becoming a Republican governor in one of the most liberal states in America, Massachusetts… So I’m convinced that if I run, I win. But that’s a decision I’ll make.”

2022 Campaign

Kari Lake to Defend Election Claims in Court

December 21, 2022 · 9:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona who made false election claims the centerpiece of her campaign, is starting a two-day trial on Wednesday as she presses to have her loss overturned,” the New York Times reports.

“Ms. Lake lost by around 17,000 votes to Katie Hobbs, the secretary of state, but sued Maricopa County and Ms. Hobbs to overturn the results under Arizona’s election contest statutes. A Maricopa County Superior Court judge is allowing two of her claims of misconduct by election officials to go forward, but eight other claims were dismissed. A ruling is likely soon afterward.”

Arizona Republic: Kari Lake “excited” over election trial but Katie Hobbs won’t have to testify.

2022 Campaign AZ-Gov

Virginia Democrats Vote to Fill Donald McEachin’s Seat

December 20, 2022 · 1:26 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Virginia’s 4th congressional district is holding its Democratic “firehouse primary” to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-VA), the New York Times reports.

The winner will be considered the overwhelming favorite in the February 21, 2023 special election as Joe Biden carried the district 67% to 31% in 2020.

Richmond Times-Dispatch: “Though polls close at 7 p.m., it could take a while to determine the winner. Vote counting won’t begin until Wednesday morning. And there are multiple lawsuits in the works alleging unfairness over the party’s decision to hold the primary on a Tuesday and with limited polling sites.”

2022 Campaign

How Trump Cost Republicans the Senate

December 20, 2022 · 11:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

Dan McLaughlin: “A major reason why many Republicans and conservatives have increasingly soured on Donald Trump following the underwhelming 2022 election cycle is that Trump played a crucial, often decisive role in picking so many of the bad candidates who lost winnable races.”

“What follows is an examination of exactly how badly Trump harmed Republicans, beginning in this first installment with the big three Senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. All three were eminently winnable with good candidates, and any two would have given the party control of the Senate.”

2022 Campaign

Kari Lake Calls Herself an ‘Election-Denying Deplorable’

December 20, 2022 · 10:11 am ET · Leave a Comment

Defeated Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) gave a ranting speech this weekend in which she labeled herself a “proud election-denying deplorable” before urging young supporters to procreate and calling Anthony Fauci an “evil elf,” The Independent reports.

She added: “My pronouns are: I won.”

Arizona Republic: “A judge declined Monday to dismiss Kari Lake’s election challenge after oral arguments by attorneys, giving her a chance to try to prove her claims of misconduct by election officials.”

2022 Campaign AZ-Sen

Who Is Rep.-Elect George Santos?

December 19, 2022 · 7:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “His campaign biography amplified his storybook journey: He is the son of Brazilian immigrants, and the first openly gay Republican to win a House seat as a non-incumbent. By his account, he catapulted himself from a New York City public college to become a ‘seasoned Wall Street financier and investor’ with a family-owned real estate portfolio of 13 properties and an animal rescue charity that saved more than 2,500 dogs and cats.”

“But a New York Times review of public documents and court filings from the United States and Brazil, as well as various attempts to verify claims that Mr. Santos, 34, made on the campaign trail, calls into question key parts of the résumé that he sold to voters.”

“Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, the marquee Wall Street firms on Mr. Santos’s campaign biography, told The Times they had no record of his ever working there. Officials at Baruch College, which Mr. Santos has said he graduated from in 2010, could find no record of anyone matching his name and date of birth graduating that year.”

2022 Campaign

Stacey Abrams Campaign in Debt

December 19, 2022 · 7:15 am ET · Leave a Comment

“After raising more than $100 million in her second bid to be Georgia governor, the Stacey Abrams campaign owes more than $1 million in debt to vendors,” Axios reports.

“Abrams has been heralded for her fundraising prowess and had brought in donations at a presidential level earlier in the year. But money became so tight that most of the 180 full-time staffers were given an abrupt paycheck cutoff date — just a week after the November election.”

2022 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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