Playbook: “With the Roy Moore controversy continuing to rage, Republicans in Washington are looking to return to more comfortable territory this week — tax reform. After months of work, the House is expected to pass its overhaul of the tax code while the Senate Finance Committee is slated to pass their own version. The forward progress is welcomed by the White House and GOP operatives who believe passing a tax package before the midterm elections is even more essential to holding their majorities in Congress than it was just a week ago.”

“Nothing is over in Washington until it is over. There are still massive differences in the House and Senate bills and it’s unclear how Republicans will find a path forward on key issues like state and local tax deductions. So Republicans could find themselves one step forward, two steps back when it comes to final passage.”

Jonathan Chait: “There was a time when liberal professionals, watching in horror as Republican presidents drove the federal budget into a ditch, could at least count on the semi-guilty consolation of a tax break. And I would indeed be happy to have my tax rate raised for the purpose of reducing the deficit or funding important social needs. But the prospect of paying higher taxes in order to finance gigantic tax cuts for much richer people is a novel misery. The comprehensive awfulness of the Trump administration has extended into new terrain.”

“The Republican government seems hell-bent on this course.”

Stan Collender: “Individual members are at least hinting — and many are openly saying — that the Republican Party is no longer as important as their personal reelection prospects. That means the bill’s enactment may not be as important to them as preventing locally politically noxious individual provisions — like the deductibility of state and local taxes  — from becoming law.”

“With support for the Republican party no longer a guaranteed political lever, the leadership has little choice but to try to appease senators and representatives by changing proposed tax provisions so the recalcitrant members have something they can take back to their constituents to demonstrate their personal value. But in a tax bill of this size that has budget restrictions that limit what may be done, almost every modification made for one representative or senator typically will cause political pain for another and, therefore, no net increase in support.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) acknowledged “that the Republican tax plan might result in a tax hike for some working Americans, saying he ‘misspoke’ days earlier when he said that ‘nobody in the middle class is going to get a tax increase’ under the Senate bill,” the New York Times reports.

Said McConnell: “I misspoke on that. You can’t guarantee that absolutely no one sees a tax increase.”

“The Senate bill unveiled on Thursday would raise taxes on millions of middle-class families, according to a preliminary New York Times analysis. The plan would also disproportionately benefit high earners and corporations. Still, middle-class earners would fare better under the Senate proposal than its counterpart in the House.”

John Cassidy: “The business tax cuts and A.M.T. abolition don’t leave any room for ordinary American households to receive substantial tax cuts. Both Republican bills do expand family tax credits and reduce the marginal tax rates that most households would face; but they also claw back a lot of revenue in other ways, some of which are targeted at families.”

“The upshot of all this is that the Republican tax proposals, which Trump has promoted by promising the biggest tax cuts in history, isn’t much of a tax cut at all in the sense that most Americans understand the term. It’s really designed to reduce the tax burden on businesses and wealthy individuals, and it could only be justified if, defying history, it delivered the economy-wide upsurge in G.D.P. growth, capital investment, and wages that the White House has promised, and which Cohn talked about in his interview. The supposed middle-class tax cuts are a fig leaf.”

Jonathan Swan: “With the release of the Senate’s plan yesterday, tax cuts are off to a stronger start than health reform’s fraught debut earlier this year. You’ve got high top rates on wealthy people, a concession to the left — yet tons of loopholes and crony tax breaks. Even Republicans who have been skeptical all year about tax reform’s prospects say they see glints of momentum.”

One reason: “Sheer political panic: This may be Republicans’ only chance to hold onto the House. GOP leaders, especially Speaker Ryan, are under no illusions — particularly not after the results in Virginia.”

Another: “Donor pressure: As members and senators have admitted out loud, donors won’t be returning phone calls if united GOP government can’t deliver tax reform.”

“Senate Republicans on Thursday plan to propose delaying a cut in the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent until 2019, four people briefed on the planning said, a major departure from President Trump’s insistence on immediate changes that he says are necessary to spur the economy,” the Washington Post reports.

“Some Senate Republicans objected internally to the one year delay, but they were overruled.”

Politico: “The change from the House bill, which would institute a 20 percent corporate rate in 2018, is likely to upset President Trump and the White House, which wants the change to happen as soon as possible.”

Playbook: “Not only will the Senate Republicans package being released today differ significantly from the House bill — Trump said Democrats will like it better! — but House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady is dealing with his own issues over concerns the bill provides massive tax cuts for corporations while individual industries are lobbying to keep their own tax breaks. To further complicate things, Republicans have a massive revenue shortfall they need to plug up.”

“Still in the mix: Including a repeal of the individual mandate to buy health insurance, which raises shy of $400 billion in revenue, but would complicate the political calculus in the Capitol.”

President Trump “moved to assuage centrist Democratic senators’ concerns about the House Republican tax overhaul by telling them the Senate version will be more to their liking, in comments that risk muddying the GOP’s effort to get a bill passed,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said Trump: “You’re going to like it a whole lot more.”

CNBC: “The GOP bill including some changes would increase federal budget deficits by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, according to Joint Committee on Taxation estimates shared by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. That includes money for additional debt service payments due to the bill.”

“Under budget rules congressional Republicans are using to pass a tax plan, the bill can only increase deficits by $1.5 trillion over 10 years, before growth is taken into account.”

The Senate won’t release its version of the GOP tax bill tomorrow as previously announced by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Axios reports.

“Both chambers are on very tight timelines and trying to strike very difficult policy balances. Delaying introduction of the bill not only gives off the impression that things aren’t going well (whether it’s true or not), but also removes one more day that could have been spent getting the caucus on board with the bill.”

“My donors are basically saying, ‘Get it done or don’t ever call me again.'”

— Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), quoted by Vox, on the Republican tax reform bill.

“An early December government shutdown is a real possibility, since a divided Congress can’t agree on military spending, Democrats insist on help for young immigrants and President Trump’s position can change with each lawmaker he talks to,” the AP reports.

“Most of Washington is focused on overhauling the nation’s tax code, but lawmakers face a combustible mix of must-do and could-do items, with the current government spending bill set to expire Dec. 8. On the list are immigration and a U.S.-Mexico border wall; an impasse over children’s health care; pent-up demand for budget increases for the Pentagon and domestic agencies; and tens of billions of dollars in hurricane aid.”

A new Penn-Wharton report shows that the House GOP bill would increase federal deficits substantially in both the short-run and the long-run in ways that would vastly increase the difficulty of passing it in the Senate, CNBC reports.

“The Penn-Wharton model shows that the House GOP tax bill would reduce tax revenue by $1.7 trillion over the next 10 years. That exceeds the $1.5 trillion permitted under the budget ‘reconciliation’ rules that allow Senate Republicans to sidestep Democratic filibusters.”

“Moreover, the Penn-Wharton model projects that the House GOP bill would lost another $2.6 trillion in revenue during the 12 years after 2027. Under the no-filibuster rules, the tax bill would not be permitted to increase the deficit at all after its first 10 years.”

“A group of Democratic senators is set to huddle with a top White House official to discuss potential changes to the Republican tax plan Tuesday,” the Washington Post reports.

The Democrats include Sens. Joe Manchin III (WV), Heidi Heitkamp (ND) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

“What, if any, substantive change to the emerging proposals might come out of the meeting is unclear — but it will allow the White House and the moderate Democrats to claim they’re at least trying to forge bipartisan consensus.”

“House Republicans’ tax bill would increase taxes for 12 percent of Americans next year, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. By 2027, at least 28 percent of Americans would see their taxes rise, the report says. Many of those taking a hit would be people who make less than $48,000 a year,” the Washington Post reports.

“The vast majority of Americans would get a tax cut if the bill becomes law… but the rich would benefit the most. The finding comes amid intense debate over whether this bill does enough to help the middle and working classes, a key promise of President Trump.”