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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Booker Pushes Bill to Make $75,000 in Income Tax Free

March 9, 2026 · 8:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Cory Booker, a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, told NBC News he’ll introduce a tax bill this week to significantly expand the standard deduction, effectively lowering taxes on low- and middle-income earners.

Budget & Taxes

Trump Bets Bigger Tax Refunds Will Help Republicans

March 8, 2026 · 7:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Over the next few months, as millions of Americans see potentially larger income tax refunds hit their mailboxes or bank accounts, President Donald Trump wants filers to think of who made them possible: Donald Trump,” the Washington Post reports.

“The administration and its allies are trying to gain political capital in a midterm election year from larger tax refunds they say result from Trump’s policies — and particularly his One Big Beautiful Bill. GOP lawmakers structured key provisions of the 2025 tax law so that several of its most popular benefits apply retroactively to the start of the year, boosting refunds this filing season.”

2026 Campaign, Budget & Taxes

Democratic Plan Would Exempt Half from Paying Taxes

March 6, 2026 · 9:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) teased a new tax plan that would excuse nearly half of American workers from paying federal income taxes, the Washington Post reports.

Budget & Taxes

Massive War Price Tag Could Be Problem for GOP Leaders

March 6, 2026 · 8:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans on Capitol Hill are preparing to confront a staggering price tag for the war in the Middle East after closed-door briefings this week detailed the rapid consumption of expensive munitions and the lack of any firm deadline for the end of the military campaign,” Politico reports.

Budget & Taxes

‘No Tax on Overtime’ Isn’t All It Seems

March 5, 2026 · 7:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Despite Mr. Trump’s ‘no tax’ branding, overtime pay is still subject to taxes, including payroll taxes and, potentially, state taxes. Some people who work overtime won’t be able to claim the tax break at all. Only Americans who, according to the Fair Labor Standards Act, must be paid time and a half for working more than 40 hours in a week can claim it. And even then, only a portion of the overtime pay — the additional ‘half’ in time and a half — is exempt from the federal income tax.”

Budget & Taxes

Trump’s IRS Broke the Law 42,695 Times

February 26, 2026 · 2:05 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A federal judge has found that the Internal Revenue Service violated federal law “approximately 42,695 times” when it shared confidential taxpayer addresses with immigration enforcement officials last summer, the Washington Post reports.

Budget & Taxes

‘Trump Took Your Money’

February 24, 2026 · 11:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Dan Pfeiffer: “The Supreme Court ruling, which included two justices appointed by Trump, is crystal clear: Trump did not have the authority to levy this tax on American businesses and consumers.”

“The tariffs were illegal. Trump took your money.”

“And it wasn’t a close call. The Court did not reverse itself or change precedent. This was not a novel reading of the Constitution or legislative text. Trump’s tariffs relied on an incredibly aggressive and unprecedented interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Many legal experts — including Republicans — warned that Trump was on shaky legal ground and that even a very pro-Trump Supreme Court could strike them down.”

“Yet Trump took your money anyway, and now he won’t give it back.”

Budget & Taxes

Little Progress on Ending the Shutdown

February 23, 2026 · 5:10 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “The shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security has now reached 10 days with no end in sight…”

“Trump administration officials told us that they’re willing to codify into law many of the changes that border czar Tom Homan has made since taking over ‘Operation Metro Surge’ in Minneapolis. The White House sent this one-page sheet to Republican and Democratic Hill offices on Sunday outlining how Homan has modified the controversial ICE operation. This indicates that the White House isn’t interested in moving closer toward the Democratic position at the moment.”

“Democrats have been asking for much more. Schumer and Jeffries released their 10-point plan to overhaul DHS and ICE 19 days ago. Republican congressional leaders have already rejected some of the Democrats’ central demands — a mask ban for federal officers and requiring judicial warrants for enforcement operations.”

“Republicans and Democrats keep saying they’re having good-faith talks. But all signs from top negotiators indicate that they aren’t making much progress.”

Budget & Taxes

DHS Reverses Course on Suspending TSA PreCheck

February 22, 2026 · 1:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Department of Homeland Security reversed course Sunday morning after saying that it would suspend TSA PreCheck because of the partial government shutdown,” the Washington Post reports.

“A DHS official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal processes, said the change was ‘based off of conversations the secretary had with the White House and TSA.’”

“The Global Entry program, however, will remain paused, according to the official.”

Budget & Taxes

Trump to Raise Global Tariff to 15 Percent

February 21, 2026 · 12:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump announced that he would raise his new, global tariff to 15 percent, a day after he took steps to replicate some of the punishing duties that had been struck down by the Supreme Court,” the New York Times reports.

“For some countries, Mr. Trump’s new 15 percent tariff may actually be higher than the rates that previously applied to their exports to the United States. Those tariffs were invalidated on Friday, after a majority of the court’s justices found that the president did not have the authority to issue them using a set of emergency powers.”

“’I, as President of the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level,’ the president wrote on Truth Social.”

Budget & Taxes

Trump Has ‘Great Alternatives’

February 20, 2026 · 1:51 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Trump says ‘other alternatives will now be used to replace’ his sweeping tariffs that the Supreme Court rejected,” the Associated Press reports. “‘We have alternatives. Great alternatives,’ Trump said.”

Wall Street Journal: “President Trump said he would sign an order on Friday to impose a 10% global tariff under a different authority, ‘over and above our normal tariffs already being charged.’ Trump said all national security tariffs under Section 232 and existing Section 301 tariffs would remain in place.”

Budget & Taxes

How Trump Found Out: ‘So It’s A Loss, Then?’

February 20, 2026 · 12:31 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump had just started a closed-door White House meeting with governors when one of his trade advisers handed him a piece of paper,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“’So it’s a loss, then?’ Trump asked the adviser, according to people in the room. The adviser confirmed that the Supreme Court had just ruled that his global tariffs were illegal, a momentous decision that undercut the centerpiece of the president’s economic agenda.”

“Trump told the governors sitting before him in the State Dining Room that he looked calm but that he was seething inside. He called the ruling a disgrace, the people said. Soon after learning of the court’s decision, Trump cut short a question-and-answer session with governors and left the room. He said he needed to work on his response to the ruling.”

Budget & Taxes

Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs

February 20, 2026 · 10:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Supreme Court ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from nearly every U.S. trading partner, a major setback for his administration’s second-term agenda,” the New York Times reports.

“The court’s 6-3 decision has significant implications for the U.S. economy, consumers and the president’s trade policy. The Trump administration had said that a loss at the Supreme Court could force the government to unwind trade deals with other countries and potentially pay hefty refunds to importers.”

Washington Post: “Decision marks notable shift in high court’s approach to Trump. The Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump’s tariffs marked a departure from a string of victories for the president at the high court.”

“Over the past year, the justices have overwhelmingly ruled for Trump in temporary rulings, clearing the way for him to ban transgender troops from the military, give the U.S. DOGE Service access to sensitive data and deeply cut the Education Department as legal challenges play out.”

Bloomberg: “Stocks Jump, Bond Curve Steepens as Court Axes Tariffs.”

Budget & Taxes

Billionaires’ Low Taxes Are a Problem for the Economy

February 18, 2026 · 8:43 am ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “California’s plan to hit its richest residents with a one-off wealth tax is a long shot, and its design has problems. But a look at who picks up the tab when billionaires scrimp on taxes, and how wealth concentration is affecting the wider economy, shows why the issue isn’t going away.”

“The risk is that the U.S. economy becomes increasingly dependent on a narrow group of very rich households, whose spending is tied to the performance of the stock market. This could mean the entire economy pays a steep price in the next market correction.”

Budget & Taxes, Economy

$56 Trillion National Debt Will Lead to Spiraling Crisis

February 18, 2026 · 6:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The United States is rapidly accelerating toward a definitive tipping point in its financial history, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget wrote in response to the latest 10-year outlook from the Congressional Budget Office,” Fortune reports.

“The nonpartisan budget watchdog issued a stark assessment: The current trajectory of borrowing, which is running at double the 50-year historical average, is simply mathematically unsustainable.”

Budget & Taxes

Trump Rejects Democrats Proposal as Shutdown Drags On

February 18, 2026 · 5:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The White House rejected the latest offer from Democrats in Congress that would have imposed limits on federal immigration agents, the newest sign that there would be no quick end to the impasse that has left the Department of Homeland Security closed since Saturday,” the New York Times reports.

“Both sides have kept the specifics of their offers under wraps, but Democrats’ demands have included restrictions on agents’ use of masks and an end to random sweeps.”

Budget & Taxes

Congress Rejected Most of Trump’s Cuts

February 17, 2026 · 12:33 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Shortly after returning to office, President Trump embarked on an aggressive campaign to pare back the core functions of the federal government, unveiling a budget that proposed some of the steepest spending reductions in U.S. history,” the New York Times reports.

“Nearly one year later, Congress has rejected much of that vision.”

“In a little-noticed development, lawmakers have systematically brushed off many of Mr. Trump’s most severe cuts for this fiscal year, leaving intact a vast set of federal education, health, housing and research programs that the White House had tried to slash or eliminate.”

Budget & Taxes

No Urgency to End Shutdown

February 16, 2026 · 10:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “Funding for the Department of Homeland Security ran out Friday evening. In conversations with lawmakers and aides on both sides of the aisle, there doesn’t seem to be any real rush to end the impasse.”

“Remember that DHS has more than 260,000 employees across an array of agencies. Somewhere around 90% of DHS employees are classified as essential, including 95% of TSA agents, most of the Coast Guard and Secret Service. These federal employees will work without pay throughout the funding lapse, so it may be some time until the public feels the impacts of the DHS shutdown.”

Budget & Taxes

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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