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Trump Bets Tax Refunds Will Help GOP in Midterms

February 8, 2026 · 7:16 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump is betting that larger tax refunds this spring will help sate Americans’ cravings for economic relief and boost GOP fortunes in November. The political payoff may be fleeting,” Politico reports.

“The White House believes the average refund could increase by $1,000 thanks to tax cuts in the GOP’s signature legislation, passed last summer. But as tax season kicks off, economists and Republican strategists — and even some of the president’s own allies — warn that the boost American households receive from the refunds may wear off by November.”

2026 Campaign, Budget & Taxes

Amazon’s Tax Bill Plunges

February 6, 2026 · 2:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans’ tax cuts shaved billions off Amazon’s tax bill, new government filings show,” Politico reports.

“The company says it ran a $1.2 billion tax bill last year, down from $9 billion the previous year, and even as its profits jumped by 45 percent to nearly $90 billion.”

Budget & Taxes

No Closer on Funding Homeland Security

February 6, 2026 · 5:47 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “Congress is once again in a crisis. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security will run out one week from today, and Congress is miles from a solution.”

“The political dynamics surrounding the DHS funding fight are starting to feel a lot like those that played out during the disastrous 43-day full government shutdown in October and November.”

“While the current clash is more limited in scope, we’ve already seen Hill leaders retreat comfortably to their partisan corners. One of the reasons why last year’s shutdown lasted so long was because of a similar incentive structure.”

Budget & Taxes

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Why This Shutdown Is Different

February 4, 2026 · 12:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Toluse Olorunnipa: “The second government shutdown of Trump’s second term ended today with much less fanfare and bravado from the commander in chief. This time, Trump negotiated both before and after the government was closed, going so far as to call Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to work out a deal on the main point of contention: his administration’s mass-deportation campaign.”

“Trump is largely the same person that he was four months ago, when the previous shutdown began… But his push to quickly resolve the latest shutdown highlights how much the political landscape on immigration has shifted following daily, videotaped clashes between masked federal agents and Minneapolis residents, two of whom were killed last month.”

Budget & Taxes

Homeland Security Shutdown Appears Inevitable

February 4, 2026 · 5:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Congress has 10 days to prevent another shutdown — this one exclusively affecting the Department of Homeland Security. There’s not much optimism about a deal,” Politico reports.

“At issue is one of the thorniest issues in national politics — federal immigration enforcement, including new guardrails for agencies and repercussions for the local jurisdictions that refuse to cooperate with them.”

Punchbowl News: “About 12 hours ago, President Donald Trump signed a bill into law that funds most of the federal government through Sept. 30. But the Department of Homeland Security is only funded for another nine days — until Feb. 13.”

“Let’s reiterate this simple fact: Congress won’t be able to pass any deal to overhaul DHS policies and procedures by that time.”

Budget & Taxes, Immigration

House Votes to End Partial Government Shutdown

February 3, 2026 · 2:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Republican-led House passed funding legislation to end a partial government shutdown and kick off 10 days of negotiations over immigration enforcement,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The House voted 217 to 214 to fund a large portion of the government through the rest of the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. The Senate cleared the package last week. Trump is expected to sign it into law.”

Politico: “But what’s left unfinished — funding for the Department of Homeland Security — will be a doozy, with partisan tensions over President Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda threatening another lapse for the embattled department that also includes TSA, FEMA and other crucial agencies.”

Budget & Taxes, House of Representatives

The House Is About to End the Shutdown

February 3, 2026 · 1:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“After a tortured hour-plus vote, House Republicans cleared the key procedural hurdle to reopening the federal government,” Punchbowl News reports.

“The final vote was 217 to 215, strictly on party lines.”

“As we’ve come to expect, the floor was tense as Speaker Mike Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer were forced to corral Republican votes for the procedural motion. With a super-thin margin of control, GOP leadership can’t afford to lose any votes.”

Budget & Taxes

Senate Democrats May Not Back Next Stopgap Bill

February 3, 2026 · 7:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Senate Democrats say they might not support another short-term Homeland Security appropriations bill when the next tranche of funding expires on Feb. 13 — even as Republicans warn they may need more time for an immigration enforcement deal,” Semafor reports.

Budget & Taxes

The Shutdown Should End Today

February 3, 2026 · 6:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “The partial government shutdown, all of three days old, is likely to end at some point this afternoon. It was a mostly fruitless exercise, and it sets Congress up for another, more politically charged funding cliff at the end of next week.”

“Later today, the House will take up and vote on legislation to fund critical departments such as the Pentagon, State, Health and Human Services, Transportation and others until Sept. 30. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security will be extended until Feb. 13 while the White House and Democrats try to work out a deal — if possible — on new restrictions for ICE and CBP.”

“There’s a real chance that Congress won’t be able to notch a deal, leaving DHS funding in a precarious position for the rest of the year.”

Budget & Taxes

Trump Pushes House GOP to End Partial Shutdown 

February 2, 2026 · 7:29 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump demanded Monday that House lawmakers back the bipartisan spending deal passed by the Senate last week and set aside policy demands in an effort to quickly end a partial government shutdown,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said Trump: “We need to get the Government open, and I hope all Republicans and Democrats will join me in supporting this Bill, and send it to my desk WITHOUT DELAY. There can be NO CHANGES at this time.”

Budget & Taxes, House of Representatives

GOP Leaders Try to Put Down Rebellion to End Shutdown

February 2, 2026 · 5:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The three most powerful Republicans in Washington are trying to tamp down a GOP rebellion in the House in order to end the government shutdown that began Friday night,” Punchbowl News reports.

“President Donald Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are all trying to head off a nascent effort spearheaded by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) to attach a voter ID law to the FY2026 funding package. Funding for roughly 80% of the federal government ran out at midnight Saturday. These agencies will remain closed until a new funding bill gets passed.”

“Luna has been drumming up opposition to the rule for the funding package — the sole procedural hurdle in the way of ending the shutdown — because she thinks it’s the only way the Senate will ever pass the SAVE Act.”

Budget & Taxes

Mike Johnson Scrambles to Keep Shutdown Short

February 2, 2026 · 4:03 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Speaker Mike Johnson is planning to meet with Rules Committee Republicans shortly before the panel convenes this afternoon to take up a massive shutdown-ending funding package,” Politico reports.

“The meeting is expected to include discussion of how to handle conservative hard-liners’ demands to attach a partisan elections bill to the $1.2 trillion spending package.”

Budget & Taxes, House of Representatives

Democrats Go All-In On Shutdown Politics

February 1, 2026 · 10:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Rachel Bade: “A large swath of federal employees will be sitting at home tomorrow, furloughed without pay. And let’s be clear: The Democrats are the reason — the second shutdown they’ve caused in just a few months, for those keeping score.”

“But here’s the fascinating part: Democrats have flipped the script on shutdown politics, turning what was once a risky gambit into a winning strategy. They’re capitalizing on public opinion to press their advantage. And somehow, despite using aggressive tactics voters have long scorned, they’re doing it successfully.”

Budget & Taxes

House Democrats Split Over Homeland Security Funding

February 1, 2026 · 10:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“House Democrats splintered on a private call Sunday over whether to vote for legislation that would keep the Department of Homeland Security funded for two more weeks,“ Axios reports.

“The deal was the result of negotiations between Senate Democrats and the White House, but many House Democrats despise the idea of voting to fund DHS without reforms, even in the short term.”

Budget & Taxes, Immigration

House Vote to End Partial Shutdown Turns Dramatic

February 1, 2026 · 3:47 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) faces a tougher-than-expected vote to reopen the government this week, after House Democrats pushing for sweeping changes to immigration enforcement signaled they wouldn’t help Republicans pass any funding measures through the narrowly divided chamber,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Johnson, with a 218-213 majority, will need to keep almost all Republicans on board or risk the partial government shutdown that started Saturday stretching deep into the week.”

“House Republicans will have to swallow frustration over what they see as being painted into a corner by Democrats, and some have floated their own demands. Asked if he expects Trump to help twist arms to get the necessary support, the GOP leader replied: ‘I’m sure he will get on the phone with them.’”

Budget & Taxes, House of Representatives

Shutdown to Continue at Least Into Tuesday

January 31, 2026 · 10:44 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The partial government shutdown that began early Saturday morning is on track to continue at least into Tuesday, which is the earliest the House is now expected to vote on a $1.2 trillion funding package due to opposition from Democrats and internal GOP strife,” Politico reports.

Budget & Taxes

House Democrats Won’t Help Pass Funding Bill

January 31, 2026 · 3:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

With the government partially shut down, House Democrats told GOP leaders they won’t help pass a funding package on suspension, which would require 70-plus Democratic votes, Punchbowl News reports.

Speaker Mike Johnson will likely have to go to the House Rules Committee to get the funding measure on the floor using only GOP votes, a difficult task.

Any floor vote will take place Monday at the earliest.

Budget & Taxes

U.S. Agencies Shut Down as House Vote Looms

January 31, 2026 · 6:48 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The US government stumbled into a partial shutdown Saturday while waiting for the House to approve a funding deal President Donald Trump worked out with Democrats following a national uproar over Border Patrol agents’ killing of a US citizen in Minneapolis,” Bloomberg reports.

Budget & Taxes

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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