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You are here: Home / Archives for Trends

Educational Differences Have Widened the Political Rift

September 9, 2021 at 12:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “As they’ve grown in numbers, college graduates have instilled increasingly liberal cultural norms while gaining the power to nudge the Democratic Party to the left. Partly as a result, large portions of the party’s traditional working-class base have defected to the Republicans.”

“Over the longer run, some Republicans even fantasize that the rise of educational polarization might begin to erode the Democratic advantage among voters of color without a college degree. Perhaps a similar phenomenon may help explain how Donald J. Trump, who mobilized racial animus for political gain, nonetheless fared better among voters of color than previous Republicans did, and fared worse among white voters.”

Filed Under: Democrats, Trends

All Politics Is Now National

September 6, 2021 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “We noticed a trend this summer that’s been building for some time: in the House, politics are increasingly national, and less local than ever. In other words, rank-and-file lawmakers who would be barely recognizable to most Americans on cable television are fashioning themselves as nationwide leaders, spending time on national and global issues instead of developments back home.”

Filed Under: House of Representatives, Trends

Young People Are Still Very Optimistic About the Future

September 2, 2021 at 9:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NBC News/Generation Lab poll of incoming college students across the country finds 92% of the freshmen — attending either two-year or four-year institutions — say they’re optimistic about their personal lives, including 28% who are “super” optimistic.

Filed Under: Trends

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Rally ‘Round the Flag Is Dead

September 1, 2021 at 1:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nathan Gonzales: “Within hours of 13 American servicemembers being killed in a terrorist attack outside Kabul airport in Afghanistan on Aug. 26, multiple Republicans called for President Joe Biden to resign. That wasn’t terribly surprising considering former President Donald Trump, his son and others were calling on Biden to resign before the deadly attack.”

“But the broader point remains: The idea of a rally ’round the flag effect is functionally over for the undetermined future.”

Filed Under: Trends

Most Say Abortion Should Be Legal

September 1, 2021 at 11:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NBC News poll finds 54% of all adults say abortion should be legal in “all or most cases,” while 42% saying it should be illegal.

“One other thing to consider in this debate: Much of the country appears to be in the middle on abortion… It’s just that our present political system — and our political parties — can’t handle the middle anymore, especially on abortion.”

Filed Under: Trends

Most Think U.S. Is on the Wrong Track

September 1, 2021 at 10:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Politico-Morning Consult poll finds that 61% of Americans believe the country is on “the wrong track,” compared to just 39% who say the country is “going in the right direction.”

Filed Under: Trends

The New Puritans

September 1, 2021 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Anne Applebaum: “Social codes are changing, in many ways for the better. But for those whose behavior doesn’t adapt fast enough to the new norms, judgment can be swift—and merciless.”

“The modern online public sphere, a place of rapid conclusions, rigid ideological prisms, and arguments of 280 characters, favors neither nuance nor ambiguity. Yet the values of that online sphere have come to dominate many American cultural institutions: universities, newspapers, foundations, museums. Heeding public demands for rapid retribution, they sometimes impose the equivalent of lifetime scarlet letters on people who have not been accused of anything remotely resembling a crime. Instead of courts, they use secretive bureaucracies. Instead of hearing evidence and witnesses, they make judgments behind closed doors.”

Filed Under: Trends

The Southification of Rural America

August 30, 2021 at 8:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Will Wilkinson: “I suspect that battle between North and South lives on both culturally and geographically. The North has drifted out of the countryside and concentrated itself into our cities. At the same time, America’s rural and exurban counties have slowly become more and more homogeneously Southern.”

“The South has risen again…in rural Maine?”

“My hunch is that rural white culture, which was once regionally varied and distinctive, became more uniform by becoming increasingly Southern.”

Filed Under: Trends

More Than 400 U.S. Counties Are Majority Non-White

August 15, 2021 at 7:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“White, non-Hispanic Americans now account for less than six in 10 people in the U.S. — a more precipitous drop over the past decade than experts expected — and they’re no longer the racial-ethnic majority in 13% of U.S. counties,” Axios reports.

Filed Under: Trends

The Only Place the White Population Increased

August 12, 2021 at 6:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

According to the newly-released U.S. Census data, Washington, D.C. was the only location in America where the white share of the population increased over the last decade.

Filed Under: Trends

All U.S. Population Growth Coming from Minorities

August 10, 2021 at 9:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “For the first time in the history of the country’s census taking, the number of White people in the United States is widely expected to show a decline when the first racial breakdowns from the 2020 Census are reported this week.”

“For five years now, the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual updates of the 2010 Census have estimated that the nation’s White population is shrinking, and all population growth has been from people of color.”

Said demographer William Frey: “Twenty years ago if you told people this was going to be the case, they wouldn’t have believed you. The country is changing dramatically.”

Filed Under: Trends

Nearly Half of Republicans Don’t Trust Elections

July 30, 2021 at 12:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new GW Politics poll finds that 47% of Republican voters believe that a time will come when “patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands.”

Just 9% of Democrats agreed with that statement.

Filed Under: Trends

U.S. Population Growth Grinds to Halt

July 26, 2021 at 12:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “America’s weak population growth, already held back by a decadelong fertility slump, is dropping closer to zero because of the Covid-19 pandemic.”

“In half of all states last year, more people died than were born, up from five states in 2019. Early estimates show the total U.S. population grew 0.35% for the year ended July 1, 2020, the lowest ever documented, and growth is expected to remain near flat this year.”

Filed Under: Trends

2020 Set Records for Stress

July 20, 2021 at 8:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Gallup poll finds 2020 officially became the most stressful year in recent history.

Filed Under: Trends

Republicans Lose Confidence In Big Business

July 19, 2021 at 5:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Gallup poll finds net confidence in big business among Republican voters is down 30 points from last year, steady among independents, and although still negative overall, up 12 points for Democrats.

Filed Under: Trends

Changing Primaries Won’t Make Politics Less Divisive

July 19, 2021 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Skelley: “Incumbent politicians have moved further toward the political extremes in recent elections partly because they are worried about a primary challenge.”

“But studies suggest that the primary electorate itself isn’t any more ideologically extreme than the general electorate. Rather, the bigger problem is the decline in competitive congressional districts.”

“Only about 1 in 6 congressional districts were ‘swingy’ in the 2020 general election, compared with roughly 2 in 5 in 2000.”

Filed Under: Trends

We’re Right on Schedule for Societal Collapse

July 18, 2021 at 1:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Vice News: “A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule.”

Filed Under: Trends

Two-Thirds of Southern Republicans Want to Secede

July 17, 2021 at 12:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Bright Line Watch poll finds 66% of southern Republicans say they want the South to secede from the United States and form a smaller, regional country.

Filed Under: Trends

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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