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Archives for December 2014

Can Hillary Clinton Win White Rural Voters?

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Wall Street Journal: “Now, as the 2016 election takes shape, some of Hillary Clinton ’s allies are trumpeting her potential as a presidential candidate to bring these voters back to the Democratic Party and to run competitively in a handful of states, including Arkansas, that have spurned President Barack Obama.”

“But even here, where Mrs. Clinton was the state’s first lady, many voters say they view her with the same leeriness they do Mr. Obama and other national Democrats. That points to a significant question should Mrs. Clinton run: whether enough such voters can separate her from the national party many have grown to dislike.”

Obama’s Family Vacation With Teenage Girls

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“As president, Barack Obama must contend with challenges of global importance, even while on vacation. But as a father, he potentially faces a test on the home front: A two-week family vacation with teenage daughters,” the New York Times reports.

“Despite the unique experience of growing up in the White House, protected by Secret Service agents and minders who carefully control their media exposure, the Obama daughters appear, in rare glimpses, to be, well, teenagers who at times show spunk and independence.”

Texans Rise to Power in GOP House

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“The top three Republican leaders in the House next year are likely to be from Ohio, California and Louisiana. But the committees will be dominated by Texans,” the New York Times reports.

“When the 114th Congress opens in January, Texans will assume the leadership of six of the 21 House committees, according to recommendations issued by the House G.O.P.’s Steering Committee in November, which would be the largest number for a state delegation since at least 1979.”

How Do You Mobilize a Cynical Generation?

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Linda Killian: “Whether it is entertainment, consumer goods or almost anything else that can be purchased, viewed or clicked on, Millennials are the most coveted demographic. There are about 80 million Americans between the ages of 18-34 and next year they are expected to spend $2.45 trillion.”

“But when it comes to politics and national policy they have relatively little clout because most of them don’t reliably vote and aren’t major political contributors. These young adults have voluntarily checked out of a political system they consider corrupt and dysfunctional.”

Oil Rich States Brace for Tough Times

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“States dependent on oil and gas revenue are bracing for layoffs, slashing agency budgets and growing increasingly anxious about the ripple effect that falling oil prices may have on their local economies,” the New York Times reports.

“The concerns are cutting across traditional oil states like Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Alaska as well as those like North Dakota that are benefiting from the nation’s latest energy boom.”

Revenge of the Democratic Techies?

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“The technologists who built the Democratic Party’s data-driven approach to campaigning are saddened by the results of the 2014 midterms, a political drubbing that not even even the sharpest get-out-the-vote operation could prevent,” CNN reports.

“But they are taking heart in a durable truth: Even as Republicans made impressive strides in digital and data-driven campaigning in 2014, Democrats retain a culture of innovation and an army of campaign geeks that far outpaces their GOP foes.”

“Republicans have gloated about their advancements in campaign science since being infamously outclassed by President Barack Obama’s voter turnout operation in 2012. After a much better year in 2014, they point with pride to new data programs that allowed GOP campaigns to better identify and persuade voters. But even the GOP’s top digital strategists continue look with envy at the technological ecosystem that Democrats and their allies have constructed over the course of a decade.”

Obama Approval Should Rise as Economy Improves

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“When will the improving American economy translate into higher approval ratings for President Obama? It will take time. But if recent trends continue, Mr. Obama’s political standing is likely to strengthen,” Brendan Nyhan reports.

“The lesson of history is that Mr. Obama will get credit if growth continues, but we should not be surprised if public opinion lags objective measures of the economy… We can see this process of the public starting to notice improvements in the economy in recent survey data.”

Write political scientists Peter Enns and Gregory McAvoy: “For the most part, public opinion does not react instantaneously to changes in economic information. It takes time for economic news to make its way from government reports into news reports so that ordinary citizens can absorb and respond to this information.”

Democrats Unveil New Fundraising Committee

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“Democrats wasted no time in opening their new gift from Congress. The year-end federal budget bill included a way for the political parties to raise huge new sums for their conventions, and the Democratic National Committee has already set up a fundraising vehicle to do just that, a Federal Election Commission filing shows,” Bloomberg reports.

“The DNC’s convention committee went live last week.”

Midwestern Governors Build Credentials for 2016

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“One group of potential candidates for president probably won’t be shuffling off to Iowa, New Hampshire or other early campaign spots in the new year. They’ll be hunkered down in statehouses across the Midwest, pushing bills through their legislatures,” the AP reports.

“Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Mike Pence of Indiana, Rick Snyder of Michigan and John Kasich of Ohio were all elected after Republicans began taking political control of the middle of the country back in 2010. Since then, they have offered a glimpse of what some conservative policies would look like if put into wider effect.”

“Should any of these governors join the race for the White House, their state records would become their chief qualification for higher office and might provide some distance from partisan battles in Washington. The governors could also benefit from being in a region rich with swing states.”

Hill Office Swap Could Cost More Than $1 Million

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The Week: “A new Congress means a new distribution of offices on Capitol Hill — and it’s going to cost us. Some 60 freshmen senators and representatives have selected office space via a lottery system much like what some colleges use to assign dorm space to upperclassmen. Meanwhile, returning members of Congress jockey to move into better office space closer to meeting rooms and the House or Senate floor. The last time these moves were made, in late 2012, the moving bill totaled $1.5 million.”

Obama Hopes to Partner with GOP on New Trade Deals

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“President Obama is preparing a major push on trade that seeks to enlist Republicans as partners and test his premise that Washington can still find common ground on major initiatives, even after he angered the GOP with a recent slew of executive actions,” the Washington Post reports.

“It also will test his willingness to buck his own party in pursuit of a legacy-burnishing achievement. Already, Obama is facing fierce blowback from fellow Democrats, who are accusing him of abandoning past promises on trade and potentially undermining his domestic priority of reducing income inequality.”

Things are Looking Up

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Politico: “Mitt Romney promised to bring unemployment down to 6 percent in his first term; it’s already down to 5.8 percent, half the struggling eurozone’s rate. Newt Gingrich promised $2.50 gas; it’s down to $2.38. Crime, abortion, teen pregnancy and oil imports are also way down, while renewable power is way up and the American auto industry is booming again. You don’t have to give credit to President Barack Obama for ‘America’s resurgence,’ as he has started calling it, but there’s overwhelming evidence the resurgence is real. The Chicken Littles who predicted a double-dip recession, runaway interest rates, Zimbabwe-style inflation, a Greece-style debt crisis, skyrocketing energy prices, health insurance “death spirals” and other horrors have been reliably wrong.”

“Come to think of it, the 62 percent of Americans who described the economy as ‘poor’ in a CNN poll a week before the Republican landslide in the midterm elections were also wrong.”

Rubio Not Letting Bush Push Him Out

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Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) “is planning to take a more active role on the national political stage next month, undeterred by his former mentor Jeb Bush’s moves toward running for president,” The Hill reports.

“Republican strategists predicted months ago that Rubio would not run for the White House if Bush waged a bid. They assumed Rubio’s fundraising base in Florida would migrate entirely to Bush, the state’s former governor.”

The Wall Street Journal notes Rubio “is facing a difficult decision about running for president or continuing to represent Florida in the Senate.”

The Brownback Effect

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Politico: “Republicans once idolized Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback as a tax cutting superstar — now he’s a lesson in what not to do… It’s a major turnaround from two years ago, when Brownback was considered a Republican trailblazer for conservatives around the nation who dreamed of phasing out their state income tax.”

“Now, Republicans are rethinking how aggressive they can be on taxes in light of the projected $279 million revenue gap that’s plaguing Kansas this year — shortfalls that resulted in the state’s credit rating being downgraded and nearly booted the Republican from office in a state that bleeds red.”

Islamic State Not Much of a State

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“The Islamic State’s vaunted exercise in state-building appears to be crumbling as living conditions deteriorate across the territories under its control, exposing the shortcomings of a group that devotes most of its energies to fighting battles and enforcing strict rules,” the Washington Post reports.

“Services are collapsing, prices are soaring, and medicines are scarce in towns and cities across the “caliphate” proclaimed in Iraq and Syria by the Islamic State, residents say, belying the group’s boasts that it is delivering a model form of governance for Muslims.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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