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Archives for April 2016

GOP Voters Strongly Back Trump Ban on Muslims

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Byron York: “What was once furious Republican opposition to Donald Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban foreign Muslims from entering the U.S. has turned to virtual silence in the face of widespread GOP voter approval.”

“Exit polls from the nation’s biggest Republican primaries show impressive majority support for Trump’s proposal. In the latest example, in Pennsylvania Tuesday, 69 percent of GOP voters said they support ‘temporarily banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the U.S.’ In New York last week, the number was 68 percent.”

Van Hollen Wins Senate Nomination In Maryland

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Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), “a seven-term congressman who has risen rapidly through the ranks of the Democratic leadership in Washington, won the party’s nomination for Maryland’s open Senate seat Tuesday,” the Baltimore Sun reports.

“The son of a Baltimore family, Van Hollen ran as a pragmatic deal maker in a time of polarized politics. Though he was supported by many establishment figures — and raised significantly more money than any other candidate — he faced tough opposition from Rep. Donna F. Edwards, who represents a neighboring congressional district in the Washington suburbs.”

I-95 Primary Results

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Donald Trump won in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

Hillary Clinton won in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Delaware. Bernie Sanders won in Rhode Island.

Sanders Will ‘Reassess’ Candidacy After Tonight

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Sen. Bernie Sanders and his campaign advisers “plan to reassess where his candidacy stands after five states vote on Tuesday, though he is adamant that he will remain in the race until the Democratic convention this summer,” the New York Times reports.

“As Mr. Sanders spent the morning happily greeting voters across Philadelphia, his senior campaign strategist said the senator understood the challenges ahead and would talk with his staff on Wednesday to decide how his bid will continue.”

Trump Urges Sanders to Run as an Independent

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“Suggesting that Bernie Sanders has been treated unfairly by the Democratic Party, Donald Trump on Tuesday said that the Vermont senator should abandon his run for the Democratic nomination and instead seek an independent path to the White House,” Politico reports.

Said Trump: “Bernie Sanders has been treated terribly by the Democrats — both with delegates and otherwise. He should show them, and run as an Independent!”

General Election Polls are Now Worth Looking At

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Jonathan Bernstein: “Political scientists have found that, historically, polls on potential general-election matchups don’t become more reliable in a steady, gradual arc as the months and weeks go by. Instead, after starting off as essentially meaningless, they ratchet up sharply in two steps.”

“We are just nearing the end of the first stage, when primary and caucus voters first learned about the candidates and formed opinions about them that can be reflected in the November matchups. The second phase occurs at roughly 100 days before the election, corresponding to the parties’ conventions. Once the nominees are known and the general-election campaigns begin, polls do a good job of predicting the outcome.”

The Limousine Liberal

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In the mail: The Limousine Liberal: How an Incendiary Image United the Right and Fractured America by Steve Fraser.

“No political image in recent American history has enjoyed the impact of the ‘limousine liberal.’ It has managed to mobilize an enduring politics of resentment directed against everything from civil rights to women’s liberation, from the war on poverty to environmental regulation.”

Kasich Not Included In Oregon’s Voter Guide

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John Kasich “isn’t featured in Oregon’s voters’ pamphlet for the May primary election — an embarrassing blunder for any major campaign,” the Register-Guard reports.

“It’s up to candidates to get their photos and statements into the pamphlet, which is one of the most cost-effective political advertising tools in the state. Each Oregon household — roughly 1.5 million in total — gets a free copy of the pamphlet. Presidential candidates pay $3,500 to put their half-page statement in the pamphlet, or else submit 500 supporters’ signatures and get their statement included for free.”

“Kasich’s failure may throw a wrench in a coordinated strategy announced publicly Sunday night… Ironically, the Cruz campaign got its presidential statement included in Oregon’s voter pamphlet.”

Trump Gets a New Talking Point

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Rick Klein: “Putting aside the practical challenge of convincing tens of thousands of Republican voters to support not their favorite guy but some other guy – all to block a third guy – there’s a serious ideological rift between the two camps that are trying to team up. Many Kasich supporters thing Cruz is every bit as much of the problem with their party as is Donald Trump. Similarly, many Cruz supporters think the GOP has made too many mistakes with Kasich-like candidates.”

“You know who is comfortable talking about the new alliance? Donald Trump. It says something that the strategy being employed by his rivals fits Trump’s message much more comfortably than it does Kasich’s or Cruz’s.”

How Trump Can Win 1,237 Delegates

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First Read explains Donald Trump’s path to the Republican nomination:

  • He needs to win 90 to 95 of the 118 pledged delegates that are up for grabs in tonight’s five states;
  • He needs about two-thirds of the 54 unbound delegates being elected in Pennsylvania to either be Trump supporters or folks who will support whoever wins their congressional district (i.e., Trump);
  • And he needs to beat Cruz in Indiana, even if they split the delegate haul.

“If Trump accomplishes all three, his path to 1,237 will be clear. And more importantly, his opposition — Ted Cruz, John Kasich, the ‘Stop Trump’ movement — will collapse. If Cruz loses in Indiana, it’s over for him; it’s that simple. But if Trump falls short on either of those three goals, then his opposition has a rationale to keep fighting, and his path to 1,237 is more perilous.”

Billionaire Launches Effort to Boost Youth Vote

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“Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmentalist who spent millions to help elect Democrats in 2014, launched a $25 million campaign to drive the youth vote in November’s presidential and congressional elections,” USA Today reports.

“Steyer’s group, NextGen Climate, plans to target students on more than 200 college campuses in seven states that will be election battlegrounds in in November: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Illinois and Colorado.”

GOP Insiders See Trump Breaking the Party

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“The Republican Party could be maimed for years following the 2016 presidential election,” party insiders tell the Washington Examiner.

“They worry not just that front-runner Donald Trump will lose the general election to Hillary Clinton, but that the disruption he’s proudly caused will mean lost elections and diminished influence for years to come.”

“The outlook is so bad that a contested convention to stop the New York businessman is not their biggest worry, they say, even as he gets close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination… The deeper concern is that Trump will remake the party in his own image, breaking it to pieces and ending its existence as America’s recognizable and electable conservative party.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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