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October 15, 2026

86 posts · Thursday

Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

Schumer’s Final Fight

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“Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is on the cusp of leading his party to midterm victory and reclaiming his title as Senate majority leader,” Axios reports.

“Winning the majority isn’t guaranteed. But this son of Brooklyn, who has been in public life for 52 years, is more than favored to win a secret ballot to remain Democratic leader.”

“At age 75 (76 by the time the new Congress convenes in January), Charles Ellis Schumer, an old-school pol who visits all 62 of New York’s counties every year, looks poised to do what very few people do in life — go out on top.”

New York Times: Surprise Democratic donor blitzes Senate races in Republican-leaning states with ads.

Schwarzenegger, Newsom Mark 20 Years of Climate Law

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“Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, celebrated the 20-year anniversary of landmark climate legislation he signed while in office alongside Democrats including Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

Said Schwarzenegger: “California is the perfect example of what can be done when people work together and when we don’t look at this as a Republican or as a Democratic issue.”

Trump’s Truth Social Faces a Sharp Decline in Traffic

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“President Donald Trump uses Truth Social daily to shape the course of the war in Iran, announce new policies and share AI-generated videos of himself. But the audience for his social network is shrinking,” the Washington Post reports.

“Traffic to Truth Social fell more than 30 percent in the year ending in September, according to an analysis by digital intelligence firm Similarweb. The platform averaged about 260,000 daily users last month, down from a peak of 420,000 in June 2025.”

AOC Makes Case for El-Sayed in Michigan

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“In a show of progressive strength, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is hitting the trail in Michigan for campaign stops with Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. She’ll join El-Sayed for town halls in redder, more rural parts of the state’s Upper Peninsula on Thursday,” Semafor reports.

“The El-Sayed campaign is deploying progressives to boost turnout, with Ocasio-Cortez set to hold some events Friday without El-Sayed, including a ‘Latinos for Abdul’ rally in Detroit.”

Democrat Is Pushing the Limits of Super PAC Coordination

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“In the race to replace Nancy Pelosi, the congressional campaign of California state Sen. Scott Wiener has forged an unusual arrangement with a federal super PAC: They are directly coordinated with one another,” the Washington Sun reports.

“The Wiener campaign and its coordinated super PAC, Families for an Affordable San Francisco, are pushing their relationship to legal extremes — sharing staff, a fundraising consultant, a pollster and a headquarters.”

Republicans’ Last Hope for 2026 Is a Polling Miss

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“Republicans nervous about the midterms are increasingly turning to the same salve: The polling will be wrong,” Politico reports.

”They aren’t suggesting Republicans will have a good night come Nov. 3 — or that the party will hold the House. But they’re clinging to the possibility that it could be a typically bad midterm year reminiscent of 2022, when polls projected Democrats would be pummeled, only for those predictions to fall short.”

A Nasty Email Fight Between Two Top Trump Appointees

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“Two top appointees of President Donald Trump, including the deputy secretary of State, have been embroiled in a monthslong fight that include accusations of leaks to the media and ‘bizarre’ threats of defamation — all over emails that at times included more than a dozen administration officials,” Politico reports.

”The conflict centers on Paolo Zampolli, a personal friend of Trump’s and a special envoy at the State Department, and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau… The emails stretch over almost a year and show Zampolli and Landau disagreeing over chains of command as Landau admonishes Zampolli to stick to his remit on cultural issues — but devolve into bitter arguments and unproven allegations.”

Josh Turek Leads in Iowa Senate Race

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A new Marist Poll poll in Iowa finds Josh Turek (D) leading Ashley Hinson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 45%.

Iowa Senate Race
Josh Turek (D) 48%
 
Ashley Hinson (R) 45%
 
Marist Poll poll · likely voters · ±6.6%
Iowa Governor’s Race
Rob Sand (D) 52%
 
Zach Lahn (R) 45%
 
Marist Poll poll · likely voters · ±6.6%

Republicans Brace for a Wipeout

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Punchbowl News: “Speaker Mike Johnson has spent most of 2026 insisting that the polls are wrong and House Republicans are well positioned to hang onto their razor-thin majority.

Said Johnson: “It feels like 2024 to me. I’m telling you the polling is not reflecting this. The polling is not letting everyone know what’s really happening.”

”But inside the House Republican Conference, there’s panic, anger and resignation.”

”In conversations with dozens of House GOP lawmakers, aides and operatives, there’s a deep fear of a complete washout on Nov. 3. Is it guaranteed? No. Polls are imperfect and often wrong. But the mood is exceedingly grim.”

Inside Elon Musk’s Massive Texas Rescue Mission

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“Elon Musk’s team reached out to Republicans in late August to discuss a train wreck they all saw coming: Unless the GOP poured more money into Texas immediately, the state’s Senate race could be lost in a matter of weeks,” Axios reports.

“That chat set in motion a massive rescue operation for Republican Ken Paxton funded substantially by Musk, the party’s largest donor, who gave $158 million in September alone.”

”Musk’s rescue gave Paxton’s sleepy campaign new life and showed why the world’s richest person is the X factor in the push to prevent a midterm debacle for President Trump’s party.”

”It also helped Republicans avoid a death-spiral scenario: that propping up Paxton in Texas would force them to drain badly needed resources from other Senate battlegrounds.”

Jim Jordan Laying the Groundwork for GOP Leader Bid

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“When House Speaker Mike Johnson decided in September to send lawmakers home early to their districts ahead of the midterm elections, House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan quietly made clear that he would have handled the situation differently, according to a source close to Jordan,” CNN reports.

“In a private conversation with one Republican lawmaker, Jordan said he would have kept lawmakers in Washington longer to hold more votes that would be politically challenging for Democrats.”

“The episode is part of a delicate dance Jordan and his allies are engaged in behind the scenes. Publicly, Jordan says he is solely focused on helping Republicans keep the majority and supporting Johnson as speaker. But many House Republicans believe that Jordan is laying the groundwork to run for the top leadership spot if they lose the chamber, according to half a dozen lawmakers and aides.”

Axios: Republicans brace for three-way leader fight if they lose.

John Kennedy Is So Hot Right Now

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“Addressing a group of a dozen or so reporters at his campaign event here last week, Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate for Senate in Michigan, joked he might not be the main attraction,” the Washington Sun reports.

“John Kennedy, the Louisiana senator popular on the right for one-liners delivered in a Southern drawl, had just entered the room at a countryside winery and farm north of Detroit. And Rogers quickly gave him the floor.”

“The two-term senator has become one of the most public faces in the upper chamber due in large part to his folksy aphorisms that have been blasted far and wide. He’s become a staple of cable news and social media, where clips of his questioning of individuals before committees frequently go viral.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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