A new Texas Lyceum poll finds Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) edging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in a potential 2018 Senate matchup, 35% to 31%.
In a matchup between Cruz and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), the two are tied at 30%.
North Korea Images Show Volleyball, Not Nuclear Tests
“U.S. experts who have been forecasting an imminent North Korean nuclear test said on Tuesday they were surprised when they viewed their latest satellite images of the country’s nuclear test site and saw volleyball games under way,” Reuters reports.
“With tension mounting between Pyongyang and Washington, analysts had thought they would see activity suggesting preparations for an underground explosion at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site and were not expecting what the photos, taken on Sunday by a commercial satellite, revealed.”
Vulnerable Senate Democrats See Fundraising Surge
“Many vulnerable Senate Democrats saw their campaign donations soar during the first three months of the year, as they raced to demonstrate early financial strength ahead of the 2018 battle for the Senate,” USA Today reports.
“The 10 Democratic incumbents up for re-election in states carried by President Trump collectively raised nearly $19 million between Jan. 1 and March 31, more than twice what they collected during the comparable period of their last Senate campaigns.”
The Georgia Runoff Will Be Very Competitive
First Read: “Looking ahead to the June 20 runoff in GA-6, it’s going to be very competitive. Just compare Ossoff’s percentage (48.1%) with the combined percentage of the Top 4 GOP candidates (48.2%). Or compare the total percentage for all Democrats (48.9%), versus the percentage for all 11 Republicans in the field (51%). Still, with Ossoff getting 48% last night, you might give him the very slight edge heading into the runoff.”
“And so Democrats need a win here; anything less will be a disappointment for them. Also, the race will be a good early test of what is worse — President Trump or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi? Because Georgians are going to see a lot of TV ads in the next two months tying the nominees to both of these national politicians.”
Harry Enten: “Polls conducted before Tuesday suggested that Handel and Ossoff were running in a near tie in a potential runoff. In an average of five polls conducted since mid-March, Ossoff held a scant 0.4-point lead over Handel. A formula created by my colleague Nate Silver based off previous runoff elections also points to a tight runoff.”
Cuomo Made $783K from Memoir
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) “reported his income last year more than doubled from the previous year, thanks to another round of royalty payments on a 2014 HarperCollins memoir that saw lackluster sales,” the Buffalo News reports.
“In all, Cuomo has made $783,000 from HarperCollins for his book. The book sold 3,200 copies since it was published in the fall of 2014… That works out to royalty payments to Cuomo of $245 per book.”
Florida Lawmaker Refers to Colleagues as ‘Niggas’
Florida state Sen. Frank Artiles (R) dropped the n-word to a pair of African-American colleagues in private conversation Monday night — after calling one of them a “fucking asshole,” a “bitch” and a “girl,” the Miami Herald reports.
Artiles later apologized: “In an exchange with a colleague of mine in the Senate, I unfortunately let my temper get the best of me. There is no excuse for the exchange that occurred and I have apologized to my Senate colleagues and regret the incident profusely.”
Republicans Avoid Calamity in Two Special Elections
Washington Post: “But both races gave Republicans a scare they never would have anticipated six months ago — and demonstrated that Democrats have galvanized the anti-Trump activism of the past three months into votes at the ballot box. Even though Democrats came up short in each race, these were seats way down the list of top Democratic targets. This was particularly true of the Estes race, in a district where Trump won by an overwhelming margin.”
“Far richer targets await in the 2018 midterm elections.”
Parties Buckle Down for Two-Month Runoff Battle
Politico: “Republicans and Democrats were already telegraphing strategy for a two-month runoff even before voters in Georgia’s 6th District had finished casting ballots on Tuesday, when Ossoff garnered 48 percent of the all-party primary vote. Last Friday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee posted research materials on Handel and another top Republican contender online, highlighting preferred attack lines for outside groups that could dive into the fray.”
“And Republicans look set to reprise their TV ads casting Ossoff as a bad fit for the usually conservative-leaning district: National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Steve Stivers linked Ossoff to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and “Hollywood stars” in his late-night statement about the race, while the Congressional Leadership Fund mentioned ‘Hillary’ and ‘liberal.'”
A Republican tells Playbook: “Everyone is in ‘disbelief!’ that Trump has made GA-06, otherwise a safe R district, competitive. Well, it cuts both ways – he also won PA, MI, and WI in the presidential – first R since Reagan. It’s time to finally realize the old rules don’t apply. Trump is an unorthodox candidate and president and he’s going to make previously safe seats (both R and D) competitive in the mid-terms because he changes the old dynamic.”
Outside Group Backs McCaskill with Ads
“A nonprofit controlled by allies of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is spending $500,000 on radio ads backing Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, an early cash injection bucking up one of the most vulnerable Democrats facing reelection in 2018,” Politico reports.
“Majority Forward is paying for the ads, which will air statewide over the next four weeks. Majority Forward is affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC that supports Senate Democrats. The ads are the first from either group aimed at the 2018 elections, when 10 Senate Democrats are up for reelection in states President Donald Trump carried last fall.”
Investor Jitters Ahead of French Election
“With the start of the French election just days away, investors are contemplating their nightmare scenario: a choice between far-left and far-right candidates,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“In recent days, a surge in opinion polls has placed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a left-wing firebrand who promises higher wages and fewer working hours, as a potential candidate to move past this Sunday’s first round of voting. That could set up a second-round vote in May 7 with Marine Le Pen, an economic nationalist who wants to pull France out of the euro.”
“Most analysts still expect a mainstream candidate to make it through to the second round and eventually clinch the presidency. But Mr. Mélenchon’s sudden rise has spooked investors just five days before voting kicks off.”
Cohn Warms to Killing State and Local Tax Deduction
“Gary Cohn has privately said he’s warming to the idea of eliminating the local and state tax deduction to pay for tax cuts and simplify the code, according to sources familiar with the thinking of president’s top economic advisor. Cohn’s private comments must be considered with a caveat: no final decisions have been made, and the administration’s tax reform plans are still a long way from prime time,” Axios reports.
“The White House needs a ton of money to pay for corporate, individual and small business tax cuts (not to mention the ‘Ivanka credit’ for childcare.) Getting rid of these state and local deductions is a dream Republicans have long held and would raise an estimated $1 trillion over 10 years.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Look, you always have to be concerned. You don’t know exactly who you’re dealing with.”
— President Trump, quoted by CNN, on the possibility of nuclear war with North Korea.
Ossoff and Handel Headed for a Runoff in Georgia
Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel (R) are headed to a runoff in Georgia’s 6th congressional district after the Democrats fell just short of winning a majority of votes.
Washington Post: “Ossoff could find it difficult to sustain the momentum he witnessed this past week in a traditionally Republican district that has been in GOP hands since 1979. Although Handel had earned 19.7 percent of the vote with 88 percent of precincts reporting, in a runoff she is widely expected to rally Republican voters who had divided their votes among 11 GOP candidates in Tuesday’s race.”
The New York Times has the final results.
Why a Membership Model? – Part IV
With the implosion of the digital ad model — which I have described at length — publishers hoped partnerships with Facebook might rescue quality journalism.
The Verge reports it hasn’t worked out:
But across a wide swath of major publishers, results have been uniformly weak. “The revenue in no way backed up the amount of time that was being spent on it,” says Jason Kint, CEO of Digital Content Next. DCN is a trade group that represents many large publishers, including NBC, The New York Times, Conde Nast, ESPN, Slate, Business Insider, and Vox Media.
At the end of last year, DCN surveyed its members on the financial performance of content published to third-party platforms including Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, and Google’s AMP project. It found that not one publisher reported earning more money through Instant Articles than they did through their own properties. “We make less money on Instant Articles than we do on mobile web, which is probably everyone’s experience,” said Bill Carey, director of audience development at Slate. And while Facebook reported that publishers using Instant Articles saw readers consuming 25 percent more content, most DCN members had seen no such increase.
The membership model works much better. If you’re a regular reader, please consider it. In addition to supporting a site you love, you’ll also get exclusive analysis, new features and no advertising.
Join today for $5 a month or $50 for the year.
FBI Used Dossier to Bolster Trump-Russia Investigation
“The FBI last year used a dossier of allegations of Russian ties to Donald Trump’s campaign as part of the justification to win approval to secretly monitor a Trump associate,” CNN reports.
“The dossier has also been cited by FBI Director James Comey in some of his briefings to members of Congress in recent weeks, as one of the sources of information the bureau has used to bolster its investigation, according to US officials briefed on the probe. This includes approval from the secret court that oversees the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to monitor the communications of Carter Page.”
Ernst Wishes Trump Spent Less Time in Florida
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) said that President Trump’s frequent trips to Florida have been “bothering” her, saying, “I do wish he would spend more time in Washington,” CNN reports.
Said Ernst: “I have not spoken to him about the Florida issue yet, but that is something I think that has been bothering not just me, but some other members of our caucus. So I think that is going to be a topic of discussion that we have when we get back to Washington.”
Bonus for Members
Just for members: The latest issue of the subscription-only Ballot Access News.
In addition to bonus downloads, members get exclusive analysis, new features and no advertising.
Reluctant Trump Voters Still Approve of Him
Clare Malone: “The biggest difference between the two groups is education level: 37 percent of reluctant Trumpers had at least a college degree, while only 25 percent of other Trump supporters had a college or postgraduate degree… Reluctant Trumpers are also less loyal to the Republican Party brand; when it comes to party identification, 75 percent of them said they are Republican or Republican-leaning, while 91 percent of other Trump voters called themselves Republican or Republican-leaning.”
“But as of right now, reluctant Trump voters approve of Trump, and not even reluctantly, though at nowhere near the same levels of other Trump voters: 74 percent of reluctant Trumpers approved of the president, while a whopping 97 percent of more enthusiastic Trump voters approved of him.”
