ABC News: “No matter the outcome of today’s GOP primary for Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, Ron Estes will win. The only question is, which one?”
“Republican Ron Estes is faced with an unlikely challenger: Ron Estes, a first time candidate… The incumbent will appear on the ballot as Rep. Ron Estes, alongside opponent Ron M. Estes. The congressman’s campaign staff hope voters can tell the difference.”
Axios: “There have been three special elections in the Trump era, and although Democrats have yet to flip a seat, they’ve gained considerable ground in each compared to results in the general.”
“A similar situation unfolded in 2009 when three blue-state seats opened up following Obama’s win. The GOP gained ground in each of those special elections (without winning), foreshadowing the 2010 midterms when Republicans picked up 63 seats and took control of the House.”
Matthew Yglesias: “If Republicans are winning in places like Montana by just 7 percentage points, then they are in extreme peril of losing their House majority in November 2018.”
“We just had to scare everyone out to vote.”
— Kansas GOP Chairman Kelly Arnold, quoted by BuzzFeed News, on yesterday’s special election.
Ron Estes (R) narrowly won the special election to fill the seat vacated by CIA director Mike Pompeo in a district that President Trump carried by 27 points, the New York Times reports.
“Republicans currently hold the House. Democrats would need to gain 24 seats by the 2018 midterm elections to retake it. There are four special elections for House seats this year for seats held by Republicans.”
As voters head to the polls today for a special election in Kansas, an internal poll circulating among Republicans showed Ron Estes (R) up by only a single point as of last week, the Wichita Eagle reports.
First Read: “Estes should still be the favorite in this typically ruby-red district, but in a low-turnout election with a fired-up Democratic base and a demoralized Republican one, a close race or even a Thompson win is certainly possible. Even a single-digit loss for Democrats here would be a huge coup for the party, especially ahead of next week’s contest in in Georgia. One important note, though: The Republican enthusiasm gap in Kansas shouldn’t be interpreted as solely a Trump-related problem; GOP Gov. Sam Brownback’s dismal approval ratings in the state have been a significant factor weighing Estes down.”
President Trump has recorded a robocall in support of Kansas State Treasurer Ron Estes’ bid for the House seat vacated by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, Axios reports.
“The special election is tomorrow, and it’s the first Congressional election since Trump took office. The Republican nerves are showing; Kansas’ 4th should be safe for the GOP — it’s home to Koch Industries and party mega-donor Charles Koch — but they’re still pulling in the big guns, including Mike Pence, Ted Cruz and now Trump.”
Said Trump: “Ron is going to be helping us, big league… I need Republicans like Ron Estes to help me get the job done.”
The Cook Political Report moves their rating for tomorrow’s special election in Kansas’ 4th congressional district from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
Meanwhile, next week’s special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district is now rated a Toss Up.
“Even a single-digit finish in a seat like KS-04, with a Cook PVI score of R+15, would portend big trouble for Republicans in next week’s special primary election in GA-06, which has a PVI score of R+8. There is a real chance Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is dramatically outspending the rest of the field while the main GOP contenders turn on each other, could hit 50 percent on April 18 and avoid a runoff.”
Sources told the Washington Examiner that Vice President Mike Pence “would record a call urging Republicans in Kansas’ Wichita-area 4th district to get out and vote for state Treasurer Ron Estes, who is locked in a tight battle with Democrat James Thompson.”
“The White House political office, led by political director Bill Stepien, has joined what has become a party-wide effort to save a seat that President Trump won by nearly 30 points in November.”
“The NRCC is pouring money into a last-minute TV ad buy in Kansas ahead of a Tuesday special election, seeking to pump up Republican enthusiasm and turnout in a district that President Trump carried by 27 percentage points just a few months ago,” Politico reports.
“The district has not been on the radar of most national groups and activists, which have focused on the upcoming special election in Georgia as a more competitive opportunity. But Kansas Republicans are fretting that Ron Estes’ (R) margin is closer than expected in his race against James Thompson (D).”
Wichita Eagle: “The money is being used to run an attack-ad blitz on Thompson in the closing days of the campaign.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.