Special Election Expectations Too High for Democrats?

“Money is flooding into Democrat Jon Ossoff’s campaign. The national party has started running focus groups on his behalf. Thousands of volunteers have flocked to his team to help him win his April special election for a vacant Atlanta-area congressional seat,” Politico reports.

“The race for Georgia’s 6th District has suddenly become a focal point, viewed as a chance to send Donald Trump a message by channeling the party’s grass-roots rage, energy and frustration into a single contest. But party leaders are growing increasingly frustrated by the nationalization of this race and another in Montana — and worried about unrealistic expectations in Republican-friendly seats where the Democrats are at a decided disadvantage.”

Trump Has Positive Approval In Georgia’s 6th

A new Trafalgar Group poll in Georgia’s 6th congressional district finds Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel (R) leading the special election field at 18%. They are followed by Bob Gray (R) at 13%, Judson Hill (R) at 8%, Amy Kremer (R) at 3% and Ron Slotkin (D) at 2%.

The survey finds President Trump with a 51% to 41% approval rating in the district.

Said pollster Robert Cahaly: “President Trump’s approval numbers, the high Republican propensity of this district, and the coalescing of Democrat support behind Ossoff, create dual scenarios heading into the April 11th jungle primary. Either the Republican-Trump supporters, energized by his victory and presidency dominate turnout, creating and all GOP runoff, or the Democrats organize and motivate their small base and take advantage of the competitiveness among the top few Republicans (most specifically Handel and Gray) to create a D vs. R runoff election on June 20th.”

Can Democrats Pick Off a House Seat in Georgia?

“National Democrats are deploying resources to Georgia in hopes that the special election to replace Tom Price becomes a referendum on Donald Trump,” the Washington Post reports.

“While 11 Republicans have jumped into the race and are already duking it out, Democrats have mostly coalesced behind a former congressional aide named Jon Ossoff. It’s a jungle primary, which means that all the candidates are going to appear on the same ballot on April 18. The top two finishers will then face off in a June 20 runoff. Democrats hope the contenders in the crowded GOP field beat each other up and try to outdo one another in pledging loyalty to Trump.”