Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192
November Surprises
A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by John Kasich at 14%, Marco Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 10%, Ted Cruz at 9% and Jeb Bush at 8%.
A new Monmouth poll finds Trump at 32%, followed by Cruz at 14%, Kasich at 14%, Rubio at 12%, Christie at 8% and Bush at 4%.
A new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 30%, followed by Marco Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 12%, Ted Cruz at 10%, John Kasich at 9% and Jeb Bush at 9%.
“That means that the four Republicans vying in the establishment lane of the GOP contest – Rubio, Christie, Kasich and Bush – are dividing up 44 percent of the total vote.”
In the Democratic race, Sanders is ahead of Clinton by four points among likely primary voters, 50% to 46%.
A new NH News 1 poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 32%, followed by Jeb Bush at 12%, John Kasich at 12%, Chris Christie at 11%, Ted Cruz at 11%, Marco Rubio at 10% and Carly Fiorina at 5%.
A new Fox News poll in New Hampshire shows Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 33%, followed by Marco Rubio at 15%, Ted Cruz at 12%, Jeb Bush at 9%, John Kasich at 7%, Chris Christie at 5% and Ran Paul at 5%.
In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders is ahead of Hillary Clinton by double-digits, 50% to 37%.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 29%, followed by Marco Rubio at 15%, Chris Christie at 11%, John Kasich at 11%, Jeb Bush at 10% and Ted Cruz at 10%. All other candidates receive 4% or less.
Related for members: New Hampshire will be an epic race
First Read: “A funny thing has happened in a Republican presidential race dominated by Donald Trump and (to a lesser extent) Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio: Chris Christie — who’s stuck in single digits in national polls — has become the target in New Hampshire.”
“It seems that the groups backing the other candidates in the Establishment Lane — Bush, Kasich, Rubio — see Christie as a threat in New Hampshire, where the New Jersey governor is polling higher than his national average. The challenge for Christie is whether or not he has the money to fight back. While the Super PAC supporting him has spent nearly $9 million over the airwaves (almost all in New Hampshire), his campaign had just $1.4 million in the bank as of Sept. 30. And our hunch is that Christie’s financial situation didn’t improve from October to December. Will the New York money crowd that pined for Christie four years ago come to the rescue?”
Sen. Ted Cruz “is looking beyond Iowa to a state that might be a harder sell for him: New Hampshire,” CBS News reports.
“The Texas Senator has not been to New Hampshire since November, but he is planning an all-out blitz of the state later this month, pegged to a Jan. 17 bus tour that will take him to every corner of the state. And his wife Heidi is being dispatched to the leadoff primary state later this week to drum up support in the meantime.”
Huffington Post: “Early primaries matter because they establish campaign momentum. The media speaks of Iowa and New Hampshire in hushed tones, and the voters themselves take their first in the nation status most seriously. But, as any South Carolinian will tell you, they are the most consistent bellwether of the Reagan Era. Of the last six open GOP nominations, Iowa correctly picked three winners, New Hampshire four and South Carolina five. The one time all three early states agreed on a nominee was 1980, with Ronald Reagan.”
Politico: “Forget Iowa, which Cruz appears to be locking up. It’s New Hampshire that will cull this field. And with Christie, Bush and John Kasich making this first primary state the singular focus of their campaigns, and Rubio, should he lose Iowa, needing a top-tier finish, the fight to be the mainstream alternative to Cruz or Trump could end here.”
“If Trump wins the Feb. 9 primary a week after Cruz wins Iowa, only one or two candidates finishing behind him will likely have the momentum to carry on. If four or even five candidates split the vote of an establishment electorate that never coalesces behind one standard bearer, there may be only hollow victories to declare on primary night because none will have the firepower to challenge Cruz or Trump in South Carolina.”
For members: A four-way battle for the GOP establishment
Los Angeles Times: “Indeed, New Hampshire, which traditionally holds the first presidential primary, has a history of unpredictability, resurrecting candidates given up for dead, spurning front-runners or elevating also-rans with late-developing shifts in sentiment. This time, the three contenders with the most to gain or lose are Bush, Kasich and Christie, who share the same essential political makeup. Each are pragmatically conservative problem-solvers running as the ‘serious’ answer to the combustible — and, they suggest, unelectable — Donald Trump.”
“Their strategies are also virtually the same: survive Iowa, which kicks off the nominating process with its Feb. 1 caucuses, then win New Hampshire eight days later — or at least run strongly enough to emerge as the alternative to Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or whoever else stamps himself the favorite of social conservatives who tend to rule the caucuses.”
A new American Research Group survey in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Marco Rubio at 15%, John Kasich at 13%, Chris Christ at 12%, Ted Cruz at 10%, Jeb Bush at 6%, Ben Carson at 6%, and Carly Fiorina at 5%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton edges Bernie Sanders, 46% to 43%.
New York Times: “Now, as Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Jeb Bush grasp for some way to dissuade the proud New Hampshire electorate from supporting Mr. Trump, they are turning to a new, blunter instrument: guilt.”
“The don’t-screw-this-up pleadings to honor what many here see as their civic birthright reflect how anxious Mr. Bush and Mr. Christie are to find some way to bring down Mr. Trump, who leads his nearest competitor in New Hampshire by double digits in polls.”
Gov. Chris Christie had Sen. Marco Rubio “in his sights, knocking him for missing U.S. Senate votes and lampooning him for the time he has spent, or not spent, in New Hampshire,” the New Hampshire Union Leader reports.
Said Christie: “I think that Marco Rubio, who has spent the same amount of time in New Hampshire as Jim Gilmore, should tell the people of New Hampshire that he’s really not serious about wanting to get your vote and your support.”
A new AIF poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump ahead in the GOP presidential race with 24%, followed by Ted Cruz at 16%, Marco Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 13% and Jeb Bush at 9%.
Huffington Post: “The GOP race in New Hampshire, where all of the establishment-backed candidates are making their do-or-die stands has become — for now, at least — a battle for second place among a half-dozen contenders left in the front-runner’s dust. Trump has held a comfortable and consistent lead in New Hampshire since July. But a Suffolk poll last month showed that if Romney himself were a candidate, he would have a 2-to-1 lead over Trump in New Hampshire — where the former Massachusetts governor maintains a lakeside home and cruised to an easy victory in the 2012 primary.
“If Romney were to take that goodwill and back one of the establishment-friendly GOP contenders, Republican powerbrokers agree, it would upend the race’s dynamic and, in turn, reverberate far beyond the Granite State. But it’s less clear which candidate Romney would be inclined to get behind.”
Bloomberg: “Trump’s state co-chairman Steve Stepanek is helping to petition signatures from the state party’s executive committee to force a meeting and a vote to remove New Hampshire GOP chair Jennifer Horn form office. Stepanek argues that Horn’s criticism of Trump breaks with state party by-laws requiring her to remain ‘strictly neutral’ in the primary process.”
A new CNN/WBUR poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading with 32%, followed by Marco Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 9% and Jeb Bush at 8%, John Kasich at 7% and Ted Cruz at 6%.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump’s lead pretty much unchanged at 27%, followed by Ted Cruz at 13%, Marco Rubio at 11%, Chris Christie at 10%, Ben Carson at 9%, John Kasich at 8%, Carly Fiorina at 6% and Jeb Bush at 5%.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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