New York Times: “The 27th Congressional District is about as Republican as New York, a deep blue state, can get… But Chris Collins’s (R) tenure came to a screeching halt last fall, when he resigned and pleaded guilty, creating a vacancy that will be filled by a special election on Tuesday.”

“Nate McMurray (D) is back to try again — and will face state senator Chris Jacobs (R) in a race that is potentially a harbinger of the electoral mood…”

“In a peculiar wrinkle, Mr. Jacobs is not only running against Mr. McMurray in the special election; he is also simultaneously running in the Republican primary against two challengers… It is theoretically possible for Mr. Jacobs to defeat Mr. McMurray but lose in the Republican primary.”

Politico: “A potentially bitter conflict is brewing among Republicans in New York’s reddest congressional district, where incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Collins’ indictment on insider trading charges and pending trial on corruption charges has the party worried about what ought to be a shoo-in victory next year.”

“With his case awaiting trial, a cohort of Republican Party operatives fear there will be no miracle victory next year like Collins pulled off shortly after being charged in 2018. In hopes of retaining the seat and seeing an opening, three Republicans already have announced plans to run regardless of the four-term incumbent’s political future in New York’s 27th district, and more may be on the way.”

Nate McMurray (D) conceded his race against Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) but promised he wasn’t going away, suggesting that his opponent’s indictment might create an opening, the Buffalo News reports.

Said McMurray: “So we’re going to do things like hold town halls. And whether Mr. Collins wants to do that, or not, we don’t care. He can show up to our town halls, if he wants. Beyond that, Mr. Collins’ future in Washington remains murky. He says that he will finish his term but, as we know, he’s not the best at keeping promises.”

He added: “When the time is right, I will run for office again.”

Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) declared victory in his bid to hold onto his Buffalo-area district, Roll Call reports.

Buffalo News: “The final tally means that barring any further action, Collins succeeded in preserving the 27th District for the GOP even after his Aug. 8 indictment on federal charges of insider trading. It also means that the 27th District, the most Republican of any district in New York State, remained in the Republican column by the slimmest of margins.”

Challenger Nate McMurray (D) tweeted to supporters: “Enough condolences guys. Cheer up! You’d think I was indicted and going to jail or something.”

Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) received a total of $80 in contributions from donors within his district after he was indicted on insider trading charges, WGRZ reports.

A new Siena College poll in New York’s 27th congressional district finds indicted Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) leading challenger Nate McMurrary (D) by three points, 46% to 43%.

Said pollster Steven Greenberg: “The indicted incumbent, who only recently reignited his campaign after initially suspending it, ekes out a small advantage over his challenger. Republican Collins holds a narrow three-point lead over Democrat McMurray in a district that has more than 40,000 more Republicans than Democrats. A district that favors Republicans maintaining control of the House by 18 points. And a district that gives President Trump an 18-point net positive job approval rating.”

Indicted Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) wrote in an email to supporters that he would continue to serve in Congress if re-elected, Roll Call reports.

Said Collins: “Voters can be assured that with the recent turn of events, they can count on me to actively campaign for Congress, and to serve should voters re-elect me. The stakes are too high to allow the radical left to take control of this seat in Congress”

“After Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) was indicted last month, the Republican from western New York seemed to leave no doubt about his immediate political future: There was none,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Collins abandoned his re-election bid in the ‘best interests’ of his district, ‘the Republican Party and President Trump’s agenda,’ after he was accused of insider trading and lying to federal agents.”

“Yet even as local Republican leaders have interviewed a slate of replacement candidates for the seat, there is a real possibility that Mr. Collins could stay on the November ballot and represent the party.”

HuffPost: “Carl Paladino, a Buffalo real estate developer and big Donald Trump supporter, announced Saturday that he intends to run for Congress in New York’s 27th district. The seat is being vacated by Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), who was arrested on charges of insider trading last week.”

Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), one of President Trump’s earliest backers in Congress, suspended his campaign on Saturday, in the wake of insider trading allegations that resulted in his dramatic arrest this week, CNBC reports.

Roll Call: “Removing Collins’ name from the ballot would be extremely difficult under New York State law. According to a spokesman for the state Board of Elections, the three avenues to remove one’s name from the ballot is if the candidate dies; does not meet the basic requirements for candidacy like minimum age and residency in the state; or runs for another office and declines the nomination for the first office that candidate was seeking.”

Politico: “Under New York law, Collins’ name can be supplanted on the ballot at this stage of the cycle only if he dies, moves out of state or is nominated for another office — like a local judgeship. According to Erie County GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy, the exact mechanisms are still being worked out, but he noted Collins owns houses in Florida and Washington, D.C.”

During an evening news conference to explain his arrest on insider trading charges, a defiant Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) said he “acted properly and within the law at all times” and would remain on the ballot in November, the Buffalo News reports.

After Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) was arrested and indicted on federal charges of insider trading this morning, the Cook Political Report says the situation “compounds his political problems in a district that should otherwise be safe GOP territory.”

“Democrats have a potentially credible nominee in attorney and Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray… The indictment won’t prevent Collins from using his personal wealth to attack McMurray as a carpetbagger, and Collins will attempt to neutralize his legal problems by citing McMurray’s use of his town email account for political purposes to equate him with Hillary Clinton. But at R+11, this seat is about as GOP-leaning as the PA-18 seat Democrat Conor Lamb won in March. It moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.”