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November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Texas Moves to Limit Transgender Bathroom Rights

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“One of the most powerful Republican officials in Texas put the state on the front lines of the nation’s culture wars on Thursday, announcing the filing of a bill that would require people in government buildings and in public schools to use the bathroom that corresponds with their biological sex,” the New York Times reports.

“The bill, announced by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, is similar to one that caused a political uproar in North Carolina and led to widespread boycotts there by companies, entertainers, sports events and gay rights groups, which said the bill discriminated against transgender people who use bathrooms that correspond with their gender identity.”

Can Clinton Win Texas?

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New York Times: “Democrats in the state call it a long shot, but some say they believe she has a chance; Republicans say it will be close but are confident that Mr. Trump will triumph. Political consultants who have both Republican and Democratic clients, and people who study Texas politics, say regardless of Mr. Trump’s narrow lead, he will take the state.”

The HuffPost Pollster average shows Trump leading in Texas by five points, 47% to 42%.

Texas ‘Victory Chairman’ Won’t Back Trump

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Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush (R) was named the party’s 2016 “victory chairman,” charged with raising money and running the statewide campaign to “annihilate the Democrats up-and-down the ballot this November,” the Austin American-Statesman reports.

“No matter that Donald Trump, who humiliated Bush’s father, Jeb, as ‘low energy,’ during the rough and tumble GOP presidential race, will presumably be topping the ticket, and that neither Jeb Bush, nor George P. Bush’s uncle, former President George W. Bush, nor his grandfather, former President George H.W. Bush, plan to back Trump.”

George P. Bush said he doesn’t plan to endorse or even vote for Trump either.

Perry Didn’t Vote In Texas Primary

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Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) may have stumped for Ted Cruz for president, “but there’s no record he voted in this year’s Republican primary in Texas,” the Texas Tribune reports.

“Perry’s failure to vote in this year’s Texas primary could lead to more speculation that he is interested in running as an independent candidate for president.”

“There are two key requirements in Texas for someone to run as an independent candidate for president. First, a candidate would have had to abstain from voting in one of the state’s primaries because doing so would declare themselves as either a Democrat or Republican. Second, a candidate would need to gather 79,939 signatures by May 9 from Texans who had also not voted in either of the primaries that year.”

Texas Primary Could Be Close

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“Texas has 155 delegates up for grabs in its Republican primary next week, but for Sen. Ted Cruz, the stakes in his home state are immeasurable,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“A victory by front-runner Donald Trump in Tuesday’s contest would knock the wind out of Mr. Cruz’s bid for the nomination.”

Here are the latest polls:

  • Survey USA: Trump 32%, Cruz 32%, Rubio 17%, Kasich 6%, Carson 5%.
  • Emerson College: Cruz 29%, Trump 28%, Rubio 25%, Kasich 9%, Carso 4%.
  • Dixie Strategies: Cruz 33%, Trump 25%, Rubio 15%, Kasich 8%, Carson 6%.

Texas Denies Birth Certificates to Immigrant Children

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Texas health officials “asked a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit by immigrant parents who were denied birth certificates for their U.S.-born children because local authorities refused to recognize as valid certain forms of identification,” the AP reports.

“Although the parents are not U.S. citizens, their children are, because the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment guarantees the right of citizenship to anyone born on American soil. Without a birth certificate, it can be difficult for parents to access medical care, travel, school enrollment and other benefits available to U.S. citizens.”

Cruz Leads Perry in Texas Primary

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A new Texas Tribune poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leads the Republican presidential pack in Texas with 20%, followed by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 12% and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 10%.

Three more candidates — Ben Carson, Sen. Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee — each were the choice of more than 5% of those who said they would vote in the GOP primary.

Distrust of Obama Reaches New High in Texas

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Boston Globe: “Suspicion has built across many parts of America during the administration of President Obama, giving rise to the Tea Party movement and fueling an intense wave of anti-Washington resentment. But the spread of conspiracy theories appeared to reach a fantastical peak in Texas in recent weeks with assertions that the sweeping military operation called Jade Helm 15 is a takeover plot hatched in the nation’s capital by the White House and the Pentagon.”

“The conflict about the Jade Helm exercise illustrates some of the most confounding political divisions in the country. It reveals how an increased willingness to believe in sinister plots, fomented by people once dismissed as occupying the political fringe, has seeped into the political mainstream of the nation’s second-largest state.”

Texans Rise to Power in GOP House

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“The top three Republican leaders in the House next year are likely to be from Ohio, California and Louisiana. But the committees will be dominated by Texans,” the New York Times reports.

“When the 114th Congress opens in January, Texans will assume the leadership of six of the 21 House committees, according to recommendations issued by the House G.O.P.’s Steering Committee in November, which would be the largest number for a state delegation since at least 1979.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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