Political Wire

Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

A new episode of Trial Balloon just dropped for Political Wire members. Log in or become a member

Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Trump Falls Into the Same Trap as Romney Did

· 25 Comments

“In the 2012 presidential campaign, June was a pivotal month for President Obama’s re-election efforts. Mitt Romney had emerged from a slashing primary race close to broke, looking to get to the nominating convention so he could reset his candidacy and get an infusion of cash,” the New York Times reports.

“While there is little that is similar between the candidacies of Mr. Romney and Donald J. Trump, the result may end up being the same.”

“Mr. Romney was defined by a brutal series of television ads aired by both Priorities USA, the super PAC supporting Mr. Obama, and his campaign. Mr. Romney, in those renderings, was a heartless corporate raider who talked about liking to fire people who did not provide good services, and whose private equity firm feasted on the modest-wage jobs of hard-working people. Mr. Romney never recovered.”

Clinton Gives Trump the Romney Treatment

· 20 Comments

“If the Hillary Clinton campaign’s attacks on Donald Trump feel a little familiar, it’s because they appear to be straight from Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign against Mitt Romney,” Politico reports.

“That push was successful, as Clinton’s allies are quick to point out. But it also runs the risk of being a little too conventional for a candidate as unconventional as Trump, leaving some former Obama operatives and Never Trump Republicans eager for reassurance that the Romney approach isn’t the only arrow in the quiver.”

Trump and Cruz Both Less Popular Than Romney

· 23 Comments

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that 31% of Americans have a favorable view of Donald Trump while 67% are unfavorable — nearly identical to an early March Post-ABC poll which found he would be the most disliked major-party nominee since at least 1984.

Ted Cruz fares better with 36% favorable and 53% unfavorable among the public at-large; his strongly unfavorable mark is 20 percentage-points below Trump’s level (33% for Cruz vs. 53% for Trump).

Both Trump and Cruz are less popular than Mitt Romney at this point in the 2012 campaign, a year in which the eventual Republican nominee was haunted by weak personal ratings.

Member feature

It’s Not a Hostile Takeover of the Republican Party

· 11 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) was one of the first argue that Donald Trump was “waging a hostile takeover of the Republican Party.”

Keep reading with a Political Wire membership

Members get Taegan Goddard’s analysis, every feature on the site and no ads.

  • Talking Points analysis
  • No ads on any page
  • Trending News, the Polling Dashboard and the Political Calendar
  • Inside Elections and Ballot Access News
  • The Trial Balloon podcast

See membership plans

Reid Slams Romney’s Hypocrisy on Tax Returns

· 29 Comments

Sen. Harry Reid told CNN that he’s stunned to see Mitt Romney demanding Donald Trump’s tax returns.

Said Reid: “All I know, I can’t imagine Romney having the gall coming after anybody’s returns. Let’s look at his. He never gave us his tax returns. Who was the brainchild who got him to do that? Romney never gave us his tax returns. He did not — he gave us his summary, he didn’t give us our tax returns.”

Iowa GOP Working to Prevent Another Botched Caucus

· 14 Comments

“Republicans in Iowa are working overtime to prevent a repeat of the botched 2012 caucuses when scores of unaccounted ballots caused Mitt Romney to be wrongly declared the winner over Rick Santorum,” The Hill reports.

“State party officials say they’ve moved aggressively to address the problems that plagued the ballot count in January 2012, and believe the new technologies they’ve adopted, as well as having more workers on staff and enhanced training programs, will pave the way for a smooth and accurate reckoning at the Feb. 1. caucuses.”

Obama’s Big Donors Stay on Sidelines

· 12 Comments

President Obama’s “biggest campaign donors are mostly sitting on the sidelines of the 2016 Democratic presidential primary so far, not opening their wallets in support of Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Almost four-fifths of the people who gave the 2012 maximum $5,000 to the president’s re-election committee hadn’t donated to a presidential candidate by Oct. 1, a Wall Street Journal analysis of federal campaign finance records found.”

Who Are 2012 Donors Supporting This Time?

· 5 Comments

“A Time analysis of Federal Election Commission records indicates that, while donors to Barack Obama in 2012 have largely transferred their support to Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney’s donors are divided in their support of the 2016 hopefuls. While those donors favor Jeb Bush, having given the former Florida governor more than $5.4 million since through Sept. 30, they are also giving Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson significant financial support.”

“Perhaps most surprising, more Romney money has flowed into Democrat Hillary Clinton’s coffers (more than $640,000 so far) than has been given to Republicans Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina or Chris Christie.”

New GOP Nominating Rules May Backfire

· 10 Comments

“When gloomy Republican Party leaders regrouped after President Obama’s 2012 re-election, they were intent on enhancing the party’s chances of winning back the White House. The result: new rules to head off a prolonged and divisive nomination fight, and to make certain the Republican standard-bearer is not pulled too far to the right before Election Day,” the New York Times reports.

“But as the sprawling class of 2016 Republican presidential candidates tumbled out of their chaotic second debate last week, it was increasingly clear that those rule changes — from limiting the number of debates to adjusting how delegates are allocated — had failed to bring to the nominating process the order and speed that party leaders had craved.”

Romney Working to Avoid Another Circus Primary

· 36 Comments

“Mitt Romney is working with an unlikely collaborator — Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire casino mogul who bankrolled Newt Gingrich’s 2012 campaign — in the hopes of ensuring that the GOP primary produces a mainstream conservative without any of the mayhem that marked his own race,” Politico reports.

“The two, who speak monthly, aim to convince the wealthy contributors bankrolling various candidates to work together to avoid the kind of primary election chaos that Romney believes laid the seeds for his defeat in 2012. The former Massachusetts governor is also considering endorsing a candidate to achieve his goal.”

“They’re unmistakable signs of Romney’s newly assertive role in the Republican Party but also of his determination to guarantee the GOP an unbloodied nominee with broad-based appeal.”

Bush Struggles More Than Romney with Conservatives

· 28 Comments

Jeb Bush “may have a lot of advantages as the 2016 race begins – money, name recognition, a network of supporters. But Mr. Bush has a problem with conservatives,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“How bad is it? Compare his standing to that of 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who famously struggled to win over his party’s base. Mr. Romney’s numbers appeared healthier than Mr. Bush’s, around the same point in the races.”

Quote of the Day

· 8 Comments

“Where he got clobbered was 47%. I think Romney is a good man who had a hard campaign, but I cannot think of a statement in all of politics that I disagree with more strongly.”

— Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), quoted by CNN, on why Mitt Romney lost the 2012 presidential election.

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

More about Taegan Goddard →